We’ve cooled off a bit over the past week, but that’s the reality of the game, runs don’t last forever, and managing the swings is part of staying profitable long-term. Today’s slate brings us a strong card with +4.54 units of potential profit, built on sharp trends and favorable matchups across both pitchers and bats. The goal is simple: stay disciplined, trust the data, and get the profit train rolling again.

Table of Contents

• 📊 WagerLens Performance Review

• 💎 Today’s Featured Props

• Ready to Raise Your Betting Game?

• Today's Featured Props Recap

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

MLB: 197-173 (53%; +18.4 Units)

August ‘25: 38-33 (54%; +1.22 Units)

All-Time: 322-274 (54%; +53.6 Units)

💎 Today’s Featured Props

🎯 Bryce Miller OVER 2.5 Earned Runs

Best Price: -105 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 4 ER

• Last 3-Game Average: 4 ER/G

• Last 5-Game Average: 4.6 ER/G

• Season Average: 3.182 ER/G

• Confidence Score: 81

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 3 out of last 3 over

• 5 out of last 5 over

• 6 out of last 7 over

Key Analysis

Bryce Miller’s OVER 2.5 earned runs at -105 on DraftKings continues to be backed by both recent form and matchup data. He’s allowed 4 earned runs in his last start, with averages of 4 ER over his last three and 4.6 over his last five, well above his 3.18 season average. He’s cashed this prop in 6 of his last 7 outings, including each of his last five, showing a clear trend of struggles keeping runs off the board. The Padres’ offense isn’t overwhelming, averaging just 3 runs per game over their last three and 2.33 in the first five innings, but they have been efficient early, which matches Miller’s tendency to give up damage before settling in. With consistent over trends and a lineup that can put pressure on pitchers in the first half of games, the 81 confidence score reflects strong value on Miller allowing at least three earned runs again.

Risk Factors

• Padres offense is hit or miss

🎯 Tarik Skubal OVER 18.5 Outs

Best Price: +108 on FanDuel

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 21 Outs

• Last 3-Game Average: 18.67 Outs/G

• Last 5-Game Average: 19 Outs/G

• Season Average: 19.12 Outs/G

• Confidence Score: 76

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 2 out of last 3 over

• 3 out of last 5 over

• 6 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Tarik Skubal’s OVER 18.5 outs at +108 on FanDuel is a solid value play given his track record of working deep into games. He’s averaging 19.12 outs per start this season, including 19 over his last five and 18.67 across his last three, consistently hovering around the number. Skubal has cleared this mark in 6 of his last 10 starts, including 21 outs in his most recent outing, showing both capability and form. The matchup is favorable too as Oakland is scoring just 2.67 runs per game over their last three, with only 1 run in the first five innings across that stretch, suggesting a low-pressure environment early. The Athletics also see the third-fewest pitches per plate appearance in MLB, which should help Skubal keep his pitch count in check and work deeper into the game. With efficiency on his side and a soft opponent, the 76 confidence score reflects a modestly risky but high-upside spot for him to push past 18.5 outs.

Risk Factors

• The As offense can increase production when least expected

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🎯 Noelvi Marte OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Best Price: -115 on Caesars

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 4 H/R/RBIs

• Last 3-Game Average: 1.67 H/R/RBIs per game

• Last 5-Game Average: 2.6 H/R/RBIs per game

• Season Average: 2.262 H/R/RBIs per game

• Confidence Score: 92

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 1 out of last 3 over

• 3 out of last 5 over

• 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Noelvi Marte’s OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs at -115 on Caesars is well-supported by both recent production and matchup. He’s averaging 2.6 H/R/RBIs over his last five games and 2.262 on the season, giving him multiple paths to clear this number. While he’s only hit the over in 1 of his last 3 games, he’s done so in 8 of his last 10, showing strong overall consistency. Marte brings a .945 OPS against right-handed pitching, a split that works in his favor tonight. He’ll face Emmett Sheehan, who has been vulnerable recently, allowing 15 hits and 11 earned runs across his last three starts. With Marte’s ability to contribute in every offensive category and Sheehan struggling to keep runners off the bases, the 92 confidence score reflects a strong chance for him to deliver again.

Risk Factors

• May require help from others in the lineup to cash

🎯 Mike Tauchman OVER 0.5 Total Bases

Best Price: -130 on Caesars

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 2 TB

• Last 3-Game Average: 1.33 TB/G

• Last 5-Game Average: 1.8 TB/G

• Season Average: 1.533 TB/G

• Confidence Score: 86

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 3 out of last 3 over

• 5 out of last 5 over

• 6 out of last 7 over

Key Analysis

Mike Tauchman’s OVER 0.5 total bases at -130 on Caesars is a solid look, supported by both recent consistency and matchup value. He’s gone over this line in 6 of his last 7 games, including each of his last five, while averaging 1.8 TB over his last five compared to his 1.533 season average. Tauchman has been particularly effective against left-handed pitching with an .886 OPS, giving him a strong split edge. He faces Noah Cameron, who has been hittable, allowing 3 or more hits in 10 of his last 10 starts, with 5 of those outings yielding 6+ hits. With his bat heating up and Cameron struggling to limit contact, the 86 confidence score reflects good value for Tauchman to keep producing.

Risk Factors

• Cameron his a higher than average walk rate

🎯 Christian Yelich OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Best Price: -115 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 4 H/R/RBIs

• Last 3-Game Average: 2.67 H/R/RBIs per game

• Last 5-Game Average: 2.2 H/R/RBIs per game

• Season Average: 2.347 H/R/RBIs per game

• Confidence Score: 80

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 3 out of last 3 over

• 4 out of last 5 over

• 5 out of last 7 over

Key Analysis

Christian Yelich’s OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs at -115 on DraftKings looks appealing with both recent production and the matchup pointing in his favor. He’s cleared this line in 5 of his last 7 games, including each of his last three, while averaging 2.67 H/R/RBIs over his last three and 2.2 over his last five, right in line with his 2.347 season average. Yelich has been especially strong against right-handed pitching, carrying an .878 OPS vs RHP, and he draws Eduardo Rodriguez, who has struggled lately, allowing 31 hits and 17 earned runs across his last five starts. With Yelich heating up at the plate and Rodriguez in poor form, the 80 confidence score reflects a solid chance for Yelich to stay productive.

Risk Factors

• Yelich’s streaky nature and his reliance on lineup support

Today's Featured Props Recap

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Best Value Plays

1. 🔥 Tarik Skubal OVER 18.5 Outs (+108 FanDuel)

   • Most consistent trend: 2/3 in L3

   • Averaging 19 Outs/G over last 5

   • The matchup is favorable too as Oakland is scoring just 2.67 runs per game over their last three, with only 1 run in the first five innings across that stretch, suggesting a low-pressure environment early

Trending Overs

1. 📈 Bryce Miller OVER 2.5 Earned Runs(-105 DraftKings)

• Hot streak: 6/7 in L7

• Averaging 4.6 ER/G in L5

• Padres have been efficient early, which matches Miller’s tendency to give up damage before settling in

2. ⚡ Noelvi Marte OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-115 Caesars)

• 8/L10 games going OVER

• Averaging 2.6 H/R/RBIs per game over last 5

• He’ll face Emmett Sheehan, who has been vulnerable recently, allowing 15 hits and 11 earned runs across his last three starts

3. 💥 Mike Tauchman OVER 0.5 Total Bases (-130 Caesars)

• 5/L5 games going OVER

• Averaging 1.8 TB/G over last 5

• He faces Noah Cameron, who has been hittable, allowing 3 or more hits in 10 of his last 10 starts, with 5 of those outings yielding 6+ hits

4. 🚀 Christian Yelich OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-115 DraftKings)

• 4/5 in last 5

• Averaging 2.2 H/R/RBIs per game over last 5

• Yelich has been especially strong against right-handed pitching, carrying an .878 OPS vs RHP, and he draws Eduardo Rodriguez, who has struggled lately, allowing 31 hits and 17 earned runs across his last five starts

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!

— The WagerLens Team