Sunday’s NFL slate didn’t go as planned, our props on X finished 0-4, cooling off what had been a solid run earlier in the week. It happens. The key is to stay disciplined, trust the data, and find the right bounce-back spots. Tonight’s MNF doubleheader sets up perfectly for that, with two matchups offering clear value edges based on usage trends, efficiency splits, and defensive matchups. We’ve broken down our favorite props from both games, plays backed by strong recent form and logical game scripts, as we look to flip the script and get back in the win column.

Table of Contents

• 💎 Today’s Featured Props

💎 Today’s Featured Props

🎯 Josh Allen OVER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns

Best Price: -125 on BetMGM

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 2 Passing TD

• Last 3-Game Average: 1.67 Passing TD/G

• Last 5-Game Average: 1.8 Passing TD/G

• Season Average: 1.8 Passing TD/G

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 2 out of last 3 over

• 4 out of last 5 over

Key Analysis

Josh Allen’s passing touchdowns line of 1.5 looks favorable given his consistency and the matchup. He’s averaging 1.8 passing TDs per game on the season and has hit this mark in 4 of his last 5 games, including 2 touchdowns in his most recent outing. Allen continues to be efficient through the air, completing 70% of his passes while averaging just over 30 attempts per game, providing steady opportunities to find the end zone. The matchup supports another strong performance, Atlanta allows 1.3 passing touchdowns per game, including 2 in their last contest, while giving up only 0.5 rushing TDs per game, suggesting Buffalo is more likely to score through the air. With his volume, accuracy, and red-zone efficiency, Allen is well-positioned to throw for at least two scores again.

Risk Factors

• Cook and Allen can score on the ground, if the run game is working the opportunity may be limited

🎯 Rome Odunze Anytime TD

Best Price: +145 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 1 TD

• Last 3-Game Average: 1.33 TD/G

• Season Average: 1.25 TD/G

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 3 out of last 3 Over

Key Analysis

Rome Odunze has been a model of consistency to start the season, making his Anytime TD prop at +145 an enticing value. He’s found the end zone in all four games this year, averaging 1.25 touchdowns per game and 1.33 over his last three. Odunze has quickly become a go-to red-zone option, drawing 8.75 targets per game and converting opportunities at a high rate. The matchup also leans in his favor, the Commanders allow 1.6 passing touchdowns per game, while giving up just 0.6 on the ground, which suggests this is the most likely scoring path for the Bears’ offense. With volume, efficiency, and matchup trends all aligning, Odunze’s scoring streak has a strong chance to continue.

Risk Factors

• Commanders defense shut down the Chargers last week, allowing 10 points in the 1Q and 0 after

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🎯 Washington Commanders -4.5 Alternate Spread

Best Price: -113 on Pinnacle

Key Analysis

The Commanders -4.5 alternate spread (-113) offers solid value given both matchup trends and recent performance. Washington has been dependable at home, going 2-0 ATS both at home and as favorites, and they’ve consistently controlled games against comparable opponents. Through four weeks, the Commanders have outscored opponents 134–101, showing a balanced offense and improving defensive efficiency. On the other side, Chicago has been outscored 117–101, struggling to sustain drives and protect leads. With Washington’s ability to capitalize on field position and finish drives, this number sits in a favorable zone, enough to create plus value without demanding a blowout.

Risk Factors

• Caleb Williams has as many as 4 TDs in a single game this season

Think line movement doesn’t matter? Think again.

Price shifts are where the market shows its hand. Knowing how to read them can be the edge between cashing and chasing.

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!

— The WagerLens Team