NCAA Tournament Round 1 (3/20)

Master March Madness: Strategies & Key Insights for Tournament Success

March 20, 2025

Table of Contents

Welcome to the first day of the 2025 men’s NCAA tournament! Today we are diving into the first day of games only. For the first two rounds of the tournament, we will drop daily newsletters around 10AM. Strap in for 12 hours of basketball bliss, and let’s make some money!

🚨 March Madness Brackets Are Closing Soon!

You still have time to join our March Madness Bracket Challenges for both men's and women's tournaments! Here is the Prize breakdown for each challenge:

Links to both brackets are below!

Quick note: Trends for all lines today should be ignored. The first round of the tournament features matchups between teams with the widest gaps in quality for the entire season. The L10 may show that a team has covered the spread once, but that is simply due to the prior games coming against evenly matched conference tournaments. We are working to improve this feature daily and welcome any feedback.

Purdue (4) vs High Point (13)

HPU Panthers OVER 73.5 Points (-105 on DraftKings)

Many bettors view Purdue as an upset candidate, and we do not discount that idea. However, HPU did not play a single Quad I team the entire season, while Purdue clawed through a classic logjam Big Ten conference schedule. We expect Purdue to advance in a close matchup. Purdue sports an All-American guard in Braden Smith who can easily put up 20+ points. Both of these teams have bad defenses, putting a shootout on the table.

Risk factors

  • high volatility in first round matchups

  • possibility for mid-major team to stall against a Power 5 defense

Montana (14) vs Wisconsin (3)

Montana Grizzlies +16.5 (-105 on FanDuel)

Today’s +16.5 spread for the Grizz may look easy, but remember their standard opponent is not exactly up to par against Wisconsin. We expect the Badgers to roll today overall, but the Grizz have a surprisingly capable offense. Look for a game that quickly gets out of hand, allowing the Grizz to claw back inside the spread during the second half.

Risk factors

  • Mismatch may lead to massive blowout

  • Montana offense faces stiffest competition of the season

Yale (13) vs. Texas A&M (4)

Texas A&M COVERS -7.5 (-108 on Pinnacle)

Texas A&M has one of the best offenses in the country and rebounds exceptionally on both ends of the floor. Yale was elite coming out of the Ivy League this season, but we simply do not think they can keep up with such a brutal matchup. Their defense is mediocre at best, making the mismatch against A&M’s interior offense too juicy to ignore.

Risk factors

  • potential for a slow, close game due to A&M’s methodical offensive tempo

🎯 Championship Contenders

We highlighted several teams in the primer who we feel are the best bets to win the championship. While we love a Cinderella, the odds of a seed above a 4 winning the title are exceedingly low. If we’ve made you some money, throw a few bucks on one of these teams!

Futures of title contenders (ESPN Bet odds):

  • Duke +290

  • Florida +335

  • Alabama +2000

  • Texas Tech +3300

  • Maryland +6000

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

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