We had a strong Sunday, going 5-1 on straights and a miss on our moneyline parlay. That run brought in +2.5 units of profit, and we’re looking to keep the momentum rolling into tonight’s slate. We’ve got four props lined up with a combined potential profit of 3.5 units, all backed by solid data and favorable matchups. Let’s lock in, stay disciplined, and make some money.

Table of Contents

• 📊 WagerLens Performance Review

• 💎 Today’s Featured Props

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

Yesterday (10/26): 5-2 (71%; +2.5 units)

NFL: 59-58 (50%; +8.67 units)

October ‘25: 31-30 (51%; +4.25 units)

All-Time: 414-372 (53%; +57.4 units)

💎 Today’s Featured Props

🎯 Marcus Mariota OVER 28.5 Rushing Yards

Best Price: -114 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 34 rush yards

• Last 3-Game Average: 31.3 rush yds/g

• Season Average: 31.3 rush yds/g

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 2 out of last 3 over

Key Analysis

Marcus Mariota’s rushing line of 28.5 yards looks like a strong over opportunity based on both efficiency and matchup. He’s averaging 31.3 rushing yards per game on the season and has gone over this number in two of his last three outings, including 34 yards last week. Despite a limited number of designed runs, Mariota has been highly effective with his legs, averaging 9.4 yards per carry across 3.3 rush attempts per game. The matchup adds further confidence, the Chiefs are allowing 105.7 rushing yards per game, and they’ve struggled specifically against mobile quarterbacks, surrendering 54 yards to Trevor Lawrence, 32 to Justin Herbert, and 48 to Lamar Jackson in recent weeks. With his scrambling ability and tendency to extend plays, Mariota has multiple paths to clearing this line.

Risk Factors

• Mariota is not your typical “mobile QB”

🎯 Commanders @ Chiefs OVER 47.5 Total Points

Best Price: -115 on Pinnacle

Key Analysis

The OVER 47.5 (-115) in the Commanders vs. Chiefs matchup has plenty of support from both offensive averages and returning playmakers. Washington is scoring 25.7 points per game while allowing 24.3, giving their contests an average total near 50 points. Kansas City continues to be one of the league’s most efficient offenses, averaging 26.6 points per game, while their defense allows 17.7. The Commanders get a major boost with Deebo Samuel and Terry McLaurin both healthy, while the Chiefs’ offense regains its explosiveness with Rashee Rice back from suspension and already looking sharp last week. With both teams at or near full strength offensively, this game sets up as a fast-paced, high-scoring affair where both sides have multiple weapons capable of breaking it open.

Risk Factors

• Chiefs defense has allowed just 17 points over last 2 games including a shutout against Las Vegas

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🎯 JuJu Smith-Schuster OVER 12.5 Receiving Yards

Best Price: -114 on FanDuel

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 35 yards

• Last 3-Game Average: 36.33 yds/g

• Last 5-Game Average: 40 yds/g

• Season Average: 37.1 yds/g

• Confidence Score: 86

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 3 out of last 3 over

• 5 out of last 5 over

Key Analysis

JuJu Smith-Schuster’s receiving line of 12.5 yards is one of the softer numbers on the board considering his recent production and consistency. He’s averaging 37.1 yards per game on the season, with 36.3 over his last three and 40 over his last five, easily clearing this mark in five straight games. Even with a limited target share, JuJu continues to make his opportunities count, averaging 3.1 receptions per game at 11.8 yards per catch, meaning he can cash this over on just one or two completions. The Commanders allow 238 passing yards per game, giving him a favorable environment to maintain efficiency on short-to-intermediate routes. With steady usage and a low threshold, this prop presents excellent value at near even money.

Risk Factors

• Limited target share with Chiefs offense back at full strength

🎯 Travis Kelce OVER 40.5 Receiving Yards

Best Price: -112 on Caesars

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 54 yards

• Last 3-Game Average: 64.33 yds/g

• Last 5-Game Average: 53.4 yds/g

• Season Average: 53.6 yds/g

• Confidence Score: 72

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 3 out of last 3 over

• 4 out of last 5 over

Key Analysis

Travis Kelce’s receiving line of 40.5 yards feels too low given his recent form and steady role in the Chiefs’ offense. He’s averaged 53.6 yards per game on the season and has cleared this mark in four of his last five, including three straight. Over his last three outings, he’s averaging 64.3 yards, continuing to serve as Patrick Mahomes’ most reliable option on key downs. Kelce’s efficiency remains elite, he’s averaging 12.1 yards per reception on 5.7 targets per game, giving him multiple ways to surpass this number with even modest volume. The matchup adds upside as well: the Commanders are allowing 238 passing yards per game, a figure that should open up plenty of space for Kelce to find soft zones and rack up yards after the catch.

Risk Factors

• Without larger chunk plays, Kelce will need more targets to clear his line

Think line movement doesn’t matter? Think again.

Price shifts are where the market shows its hand. Knowing how to read them can be the edge between cashing and chasing.

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!

— The WagerLens Team