We’re coming off a huge run, +10 units last Sunday and Monday, and the goal is simple: run it back. Today’s NFL slate is loaded with value, and we’re locked in with six straight plays plus a quick-hit moneyline parlay to round it out. Momentum’s on our side, data looks sharp, and it’s time to stack another winning week. Let’s dive in.

Table of Contents

• 📊 WagerLens Performance Review

• 💎 Today’s Featured Props

• NFL Moneyline Parlay

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

NFL: 54-56 (49%; +6.2 units)

October ‘25: 26-28 (48%; +1.78 units)

All-Time: 409-370 (53%; +55 units)

💎 Today’s Featured Props

🎯 DJ Moore OVER 36.5 Receiving Yards

Best Price: -112 on FanDuel

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 43 yards

• Last 3-Game Average: 41 yds/g

• Last 5-Game Average: 38 yds/g

• Season Average: 43 yds/g

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 3 out of last 3 over

• 4 out of last 5 over

Key Analysis

DJ Moore’s receiving line of 36.5 yards looks favorable given his steady production and the defensive matchup. He’s averaged 43 yards per game on the season and has gone over this mark in four of his last five, including three straight. While his target volume has been modest, Moore continues to make efficient use of his opportunities, maintaining a consistent yardage floor. The matchup gives him a further boost, the Ravens are allowing the 5th-most passing yards per game this season, frequently giving up chunk plays to outside receivers. With his big-play ability and consistent involvement, Moore has multiple paths to clearing this line even with limited targets.

Risk Factors

• Moore’s ceiling is tied to quarterback efficiency, and if the Bears lean too heavily on the run, his opportunities could dip

🎯 Alec Pierce OVER 35.5 Receiving Yards

Best Price: -112 on FanDuel

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 98 Yards

• Last 3-Game Average: 71 yds/g

• Last 5-Game Average: 63.4 yds/g

• Season Average: 63.4 yds/g

• Confidence Score: 81

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 3 out of last 3 over

• 5 out of last 5 over

Key Analysis

Alec Pierce’s receiving line of 35.5 yards looks very manageable given his recent surge in production. He’s averaging 63.4 yards per game on the season and has cleared this number in five straight games, including a 98-yard performance last week. Over his last three outings, he’s averaged 71 yards per game on 5.4 targets with an impressive 19.8 yards per reception, showing consistent deep-threat efficiency. The matchup also supports the over, the Titans are allowing 210 passing yards per game, and their secondary has struggled to contain vertical plays all season. With his big-play ability and steady target volume, Pierce has multiple paths to clearing this number comfortably.

Risk Factors

• Gets the bulk of his yards from deep throws, will likely need to make some contested catches

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🎯 George Pickens OVER 56.5 Receiving Yards

Best Price: -118 on BetMGM

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 82 yards

• Last 3-Game Average: 102.33 yds/g

• Last 5-Game Average: 101.8 yds/g

• Season Average: 86.7 yds/g

• Confidence Score: 82

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 3 out of last 3 over

• 5 out of last 5 over

Key Analysis

George Pickens’ receiving line of 56.5 yards looks like one of the stronger overs on the slate given his recent dominance. He’s cleared this number in five straight games, averaging over 100 yards per game in both his last three (102.3) and last five (101.8) outings. On the season, he sits at 86.7 yards per game, showing that his current form isn’t just a hot streak but part of a consistent upward trend. Pickens continues to see 7.7 targets per game and averages a hefty 16.9 yards per reception, giving him big-play upside on every drive. His connection with the quarterback has grown noticeably, and his downfield role makes this line appear several yards too low based on recent usage.

Risk Factors

• Reception share with Lamb and Ferguson

🎯 Jake Ferguson Anytime Touchdown

Best Price: +175 on BetMGM

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 2 TD

• Last 3-Game Average: 1.67 TD/G

• Last 5-Game Average: 1.2 TD/G

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 3 out of last 3 over

• 4 out of last 5 over

Key Analysis

Jake Ferguson’s Anytime Touchdown (+175) carries strong value given his recent red-zone consistency and growing role in the Cowboys’ passing game. He’s scored in four of his last five games, including two touchdowns last week, and is averaging 1.67 TDs per game over his last three. Ferguson has become one of Dak Prescott’s most trusted red-zone targets, especially on short-yardage and play-action looks. The matchup also favors continued success, the Broncos surrendered three passing touchdowns last week, struggling to contain tight ends and slot routes over the middle. With steady end-zone usage and Dallas’ offense trending upward, Ferguson has a realistic path to another score at plus money.

Risk Factors

• Broncos strong defense

Think line movement doesn’t matter? Think again.

Price shifts are where the market shows its hand. Knowing how to read them can be the edge between cashing and chasing.

🎯 J.K. Dobbins OVER 76.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards

Best Price: -114 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 80 tot yds/g

• Last 3-Game Average: 68.33 tot yds/g

• Last 5-Game Average: 78.4 tot yds/g

• Season Average: 77.9 tot yds/g

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 2 out of last 3 over

• 4 out of last 5 over

Key Analysis

J.K. Dobbins’ total yardage line of 76.5 looks like a solid over spot given both recent trends and the matchup. He’s averaging 77.9 total yards per game on the season and has gone over this number in four of his last five, including 80 yards in his most recent outing. While his last three games average slightly below this mark (68.3), the matchup against Dallas gives him a strong boost, the Cowboys have allowed 165 rushing yards per game over their last three, struggling to contain physical, all-purpose backs. Players like Breece Hall, Rico Dowdle, and Josh Jacobs have all cleared this same line comfortably against them. With Dobbins handling a balanced workload and facing a defense trending downward against the run, this over comes with solid data support and upside.

Risk Factors

• If the pass game is working he may get less opportunity

🎯 Cam Ward OVER 209.5 Passing Yards

Best Price: -104 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 255 yds

• Last 3-Game Average: 247.33 yds/g

• Last 5-Game Average: 213.8 yds/g

• Season Average: 193.7 yds/g

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 3 out of last 3 over

• 4 out of last 5 over

Key Analysis

Cam Ward’s passing line of 209.5 yards looks like a strong play on the over given his recent form and matchup. He’s gone over this mark in four of his last five games, including three straight, while averaging 247.3 yards per game over his last three. His season-long average of 193.7 yards is pulled down by a few early low-volume games, but Ward’s recent efficiency and confidence as a passer show a clear upward trend. The matchup also supports continued production, the Colts are allowing 255 passing yards per game, ranking near the bottom of the league in pass defense. With Ward’s accuracy improving and the game script likely to keep him active through the air, this line sits several yards too low relative to current form.

Risk Factors

• Ward is still settling in and has a low floor

NFL Moneyline Parlay

• Cincinnati Bengals ML

• New England Patriots ML

• San Francisco 49ers ML

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML

• +436 total odds on DraftKings

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!

— The WagerLens Team