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On Deck: Cleveland's Edge & Today's Top Plays
Sharp Analysis. Simple Execution. Daily Value.
Brian McAbee
April 19, 2025
Sometimes the ball just keeps flying over the fence, as we learned yesterday with our unders going a tough 0-3 against the scoreboard. The good news? Our long-term strategy continues to pay dividends with our subscribers still up over 20 units all-time using our data-driven approach. Today we're pivoting to where the value truly lies—with a particularly juicy moneyline and some trending player props that our models absolutely love.
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Table of Contents
📊 WagerLens Performance Review
Yesterday (4/19): 0-3 (0%)
NBA: 111-84 (57%)
MLB: 21-20 (51%)
Apr ‘25: 32-27 (54%)
All-Time: 142-119 (54%)
💎 Today’s Featured Props
🎯 Cleveland Guardians ML vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Best Price: +150 on FanDuel
Recent Performance
Last Game: Win (Apr 18)
Record: 10-9 (W-L)
Average Runs per game: 4+
How Has This Line Performed?
1 out of last 1
1 out of last 3
7 out of last 10
Key Analysis
The Cleveland Guardians have been money machines as underdogs this season with a 7-3 record in their last 10 games. Even though today is Skenes day for Pittsburgh, a win against the Pirates last night and recent win rates offer an intriguing value play today at +150. Cleveland has shown particular strength recently, winning 4 of their last 5 games. Their pitching staff has been keeping games close, which gives them excellent value as underdogs against Pittsburgh.
Risk Factors
Paul Skenes on the mound for Pittsburgh
8 of their 9 losses on the season are away games
🎯 TJ Friedl OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
Best Price: -125 on DraftKings
Recent Performance
Last Game: 3 H+R+RBI (Apr 17)
Season Average (18 GP): 2.06 H+R+RBI
How Has This Prop Performed?
2 out of last 3 games
5 out of last 6 games
6 out of last 7 games
Key Analysis
TJ Friedl has been consistently producing for the Reds with a batting average of .268 this season. He's cleared this prop in 6 of his last 7 games, including 2 straight. What's impressive is his consistency - even in games where he only records 2 H+R+RBI, he's still clearing the line. Today's matchup at Baltimore presents a good opportunity as Friedl has performed well on the road this season.
Risk Factors
Friedl went hitless on April 15, showing he can have occasional down games
🎯 Corbin Carroll OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
Best Price: -120 on DraftKings
Recent Performance
Last Game: 3 H+R+RBI (Apr 18)
Last 3-Game Average: 3 H+R+RBI
Last 5-Game Average: ~5 H+R+RBI
Season Average (20 GP): ~3 H+R+RBI
How Has This Prop Performed?
3 out of last 3 games
4 out of last 5 games
8 out of last 10 games
Key Analysis
Corbin Carroll has been on fire recently, producing at an elite level with a .321 batting average across 20 games. His standout performance came on April 15 when he recorded 9 H+R+RBI. Carroll has shown tremendous consistency, clearing this line in 8 of his last 10 games. Today's matchup against Chicago provides another favorable opportunity for the Arizona outfielder to continue his hot streak.
Risk Factors
Wrigley Field is a pitcher-friendly park
🎯 Pete Crow-Armstrong OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
Best Price: +135 on DraftKings
Recent Performance
Last Game: 5 H+R+RBI (Apr 18)
Last 3-Game Average: ~3 H+R+RBI
Last 5-Game Average: ~4 H+R+RBI
Season Average (22 GP): ~2 H+R+RBI
How Has This Prop Performed?
3 out of last 3 games
5 out of last 5 games
8 out of last 10 games
Key Analysis
Pete Crow-Armstrong offers excellent value at +135 as he's been consistently producing for the Cubs. With a batting average of .271 across 22 games, he's been particularly hot lately, recording at least 2 H+R+RBI in each of his last 5 games. His best recent performance came on April 13 with 7 H+R+RBI. The plus odds are surprising given his consistency and make this one of today's best values.
Risk Factors
Two games with zero H+R+RBI earlier this month (Apr 9, Apr 11)
Arizona's pitching staff ranks among the better units in the league
MLB Home Run Hitters Edge
MLB hitters with higher probability to hit a home run based on season stats, matchups with starting pitchers and other key stats (odds from DraftKings)
Oneil Cruz +400
Ryan O’Hearn +600
Rhys Hoskins +550
Today's Featured Props Recap
We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:
Best Value Plays
🔥 Cleveland Guardians ML vs Pittsburgh Pirates (+150 FanDuel)
Most consistent trend: 7/10 in recent ML games
Averaging over 4 runs per game
Significant edge at +150 considering team's 10-9 record
Trending Overs
📈 Corbin Carroll OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI (-120 DraftKings)
Hot streak: 8/10 in recent games
Averaging 4.6 H+R+RBI in L5 games
Batting .321 this season with consistent production in key hitting metrics
⚡ Pete Crow-Armstrong OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI (+135 DraftKings)
8/10 games going OVER
Coming off 5 H+R+RBI performance yesterday
Great value at plus money despite 5/5 recent games clearing this line
💥 TJ Friedl OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI (-125 DraftKings)
6/7 games going OVER
Batting .268 with average of 2.06 H+R+RBI for season
3-game streak of clearing this prop with consistent production
All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.
As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!
— The WagerLens Team