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Phillies Upset Potential + Red-Hot Player Props
Tonight’s MLB slate delivers both player prop value and a sharp moneyline angle

We went 2-2 on the MNF double-header sweeping the early game and missing profit by 8 passing yards from Herbert. Today brings a full MLB slate and were looking for hot hitters to stay hot.
Table of Contents
📊 WagerLens Performance Review
Yesterday (09/15): 2-2 (50%; -0.2 Units)
MLB: 217-196 (53%; +14.73 Units)
September ‘25: 24-28 (46%; +1.73 Units)
All-Time: 357-313 (53%; +55.2 Units)
💎 Today’s Featured Props
🎯 Jorge Polanco OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
Best Price: -118 on DraftKings

Recent Performance
Last Game: 5 H/R/RBIs
Last 3-Game Average: 3.33 H/R/RBIs per game
Last 5-Game Average: 3.4 H/R/RBIs per game
Season Average: 1.93 H/R/RBIs per game
Confidence Score: 98
How Has This Prop Performed?
3 out of last 3 over
5 out of last 5 over
9 out of last 10 over
Key Analysis
Jorge Polanco’s OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs at -118 on DraftKings looks like one of the stronger plays on the board given both his recent consistency and the matchup. He’s cleared this number in 9 of his last 10 games, including five straight, with averages of 3.33 and 3.4 H/R/RBIs over his last 3 and 5 games. Polanco is seeing the ball well and has been heavily involved in the offense, highlighted by his 5 H/R/RBIs performance in his last outing. The matchup also supports the over: he owns a .324 OBP against right-handers, and he’ll face Michael Wacha, who carries a 3.45 ERA but has been hittable lately, giving up 6.2 hits per game and 2.4 earned runs across his last five starts. With Polanco’s form, team role, and the pitching matchup all aligned, his 98 confidence score feels justified, making this a high-upside angle.
Risk Factors
Wacha has the ability to shut down an offense
🎯 Romy Gonzalez OVER 0.5 Singles
Best Price: -115 on FanDuel

Recent Performance
Last Game: 1 Single
Last 3-Game Average: 0.67 1B/G
Last 5-Game Average: 0.8 1B/G
Season Average: 0.628 1B/G
Confidence Score: 97
How Has This Prop Performed?
2 out of last 3 over
4 out of last 5 over
9 out of last 10 over
Key Analysis
Romy Gonzalez’s OVER 0.5 Singles at -115 on FanDuel looks like a sharp angle given both his recent consistency and favorable matchup. He’s hit this prop in 9 of his last 10 games, including 4 of his last 5, showing a reliable floor despite modest season averages (0.628 singles per game). Gonzalez has been especially effective against left-handed pitching, batting .347, which lines up well against Jeffrey Springs. While Springs has solid overall stuff, he’s been allowing 6 hits per game over his last 5 starts, creating opportunity for contact hitters like Gonzalez to find the gaps. With his recent track record, platoon advantage, and the opposing pitcher’s tendency to allow base hits, the 97 confidence score aligns well with this being a high-probability play.
Risk Factors
XBH wont cash and Gonzalez hit a HR and double in his last matchup with springs
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🎯 Vinnie Pasquantino OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
Best Price: +105 BetMGM

Recent Performance
Last Game: 7 H/R/RBIs
Last 3-Game Average: 3.67 H/R/RBIs per game
Last 5-Game Average: 3.6 H/R/RBIs per game
Season Average: 2.162 H/R/RBIs per game
Confidence Score: 86
How Has This Prop Performed?
2 out of last 3 over
4 out of last 5 over
7 out of last 10 over
Key Analysis
Vinnie Pasquantino’s OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs at +105 on BetMGM offers solid value given both his production and matchup. He’s been on a tear lately, piling up 7 H/R/RBIs in his last outing and averaging 3.6 over his last 5 games. He’s also been reliable in recent prop performance, clearing in 7 of his last 10 games, and his .847 OPS versus right-handers gives him a strong edge against Logan Gilbert. While Gilbert is generally steady, he has allowed 5 hits and 2.4 runs per game across his last 5 starts, leaving room for Kansas City’s lineup to generate offense. With Pasquantino’s ability to contribute across multiple categories (hits, runs, RBIs), this is a versatile angle that aligns well with his hot form and favorable splits.
Risk Factors
Will likely need help from other in the lineup in order to cash
🎯 Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline
Best Price: +104 on Pinnacle

Recent Performance
Last Game: Won
Last 3-Game Average: 2-1
Last 5-Game Average: 4-1
Season Average: 90-61
How Has This Prop Performed?
2 out of last 3 won
4 out of last 5 won
8 out of last 10 won
Key Analysis
The Phillies Moneyline at +104 on Pinnacle presents a live underdog opportunity with strong recent trends and a favorable pitching matchup. Philadelphia has been in excellent form, going 4-1 over their last 5 and 8-2 in their last 10, while also holding a 3-1 head-to-head edge over the Dodgers this season. Cristopher Sánchez has been lights out lately, posting a 13-5 record with a 2.57 ERA on the year and allowing just 1 earned run per game across his last three starts. On the other side, Shohei Ohtani hasn’t been as dominant on the mound recently, giving up 6 earned runs on 14 hits over his last 3 starts while carrying a 3.75 ERA overall. With the Phillies’ momentum, their success against the Dodgers this year, and Sánchez’s elite form, the plus-money price makes this a high-value play on the moneyline.
Risk Factors
Dodgers lineup performed will against Sanchez in their last matchup
Today's Featured Props Recap
We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:
Best Value Plays
🔥 Vinnie Pasquantino OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+105 BetMGM)
Most consistent trend: 4/5 in L5
Averaging 3.6 H/R/RBIs per game over his last 5
Gilbert has allowed 5 hits and 2.4 runs per game across his last 5 starts
Trending Overs
1. 📈 Jorge Polanco OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-118 DraftKings)
Hot streak: 9/10 in L10
Averaging 3.4 H/R/RBIs per game in L5
Polanco owns a .324 OBP against right-handers, and he’ll face Michael Wacha, who carries a 3.45 ERA but has been hittable lately, giving up 6.2 hits per game and 2.4 earned runs across his last five starts
2. ⚡ Romy Gonzalez OVER 0.5 Singles (-115 FanDuel)
9/L10 games going OVER
Averaging 0.8 singles per game over his last 5
Gonzalez has been especially effective against left-handed pitching, batting .347, which lines up well against Jeffrey Springs who is allowing 6 H/G over his last 5 starts
Watch List
1. ⚠️ Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline (+104 Pinnacle)
Strong trend but facing a Dodgers line up that can put up strong offensive numbers
Cristopher Sánchez has been lights out lately, posting a 13-5 record with a 2.57 ERA on the year and allowing just 1 earned run per game across his last three starts
The Dodgers’ lineup did well against Sanchez in their last matchup this season
All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.
As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!
— The WagerLens Team