Pitch Perfect: Ace Matchups, Strikeout Props, and a Whole Lot of Heat

Taking overs on aces and climbing the ladder

Author

Sage Davis
May 16, 2025

We hope you enjoyed yesterday’s educational deep dive—it’s always good to mix things up and sharpen the edge. Our picks went 2-1, just two runs short of a clean sweep. Today, we’re back with a loaded MLB slate and kicking off a brand new ladder challenge. Let’s stay sharp, lock in, and stack some wins.

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Table of Contents

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

Yesterday (05/15): 2-1 (67%; +0.44 Units)

MLB: 69-61 (53%; +14.44 Units)

NBA: 115-85 (57.5%; +42.38 Units)

May ‘25: 30-19 (61%; +4.94 Units)

All-Time: 194-161 (55%; +50.6 Units)

🪜 WagerLens Ladder Challenge

A betting ladder challenge is where you start with a small stake and try to grow it by making a series of consecutive bets, reinvesting all winnings each time. You usually bet on heavy favorites to lower the risk. If you win every step, your small start can turn into a big payout — but if you lose once, the ladder ends.

  • Tommy Pham UNDER 0.5 Runs Scored

  • CJ Abrams OVER 0.5 Hits

  • Total Odds +104

  • $10 → $20.46 ❓

🎯 Cole Ragans OVER 6.5 Strikeouts Thrown

Best Price: -142 on FanDuel

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 8 Ks

  • Last 3-Game Average: 7.67 K/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 8.2 K/G

  • Season Average: 8.125 K/G

  • Confidence Score: 87

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 over

  • 4 out of last 5 over

Key Analysis

Cole Ragans' strikeout prop is set at 6.5, and the data strongly supports the over. He’s cleared this line in 4 of his last 5 starts and is averaging 8.2 Ks over that stretch. His season average of 8.125 strikeouts per game also comfortably clears the mark, and his recent 3-game average (7.67) suggests consistent performance. Ragans struck out 8 batters in his last outing and is averaging roughly 1.6 strikeouts per inning—an encouraging rate for someone likely to pitch deep into games. The matchup adds even more value: the Cardinals strike out 7.73 times per game on the season, but that number has jumped to 8.67 over their last three games and 8.61 on the road.

Risk Factors

  • Ragan’s low floor with his one game going under this line having just 4 Ks

🎯 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. OVER 0.5 Walks

Best Price: +105 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 2 BB

  • Last 3-Game Average: 1.67 BB/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 1.2 BB/G

  • Season Average: .628 BB/G

  • Confidence Score: 97

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 over

  • 4 out of last 5 over

  • 9 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to record a walk at plus money (+105) presents excellent value given both his recent form and the pitching matchup. Vlad has gone over this line in 9 of his last 10 games, including each of his last 3, with an impressive 1.67 walks per game over that recent stretch. His season average of 0.628 walks per game shows clear upward momentum, further supported by a 97 confidence score. He’s especially disciplined against right-handed pitching, with 22 of his 27 walks this season coming against righties. That bodes well against Jack Flaherty, who has struggled with control—issuing 12 walks over his last 7 starts and giving up 2 or more in all but one outing this season. Given Vlad’s patient approach and the favorable matchup, the over 0.5 walks looks like a sharp play at plus odds.

Risk Factors

  • Vlad’s slightly lower OBP against RHP

🎯 MacKenzie Gore OVER 6.5 Strikeouts Thrown

Best Price: +100 on Pinnacle

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 7 Ks

  • Last 3-Game Average: 7.33 K/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 8.6 K/G

  • Season Average: 8.333 K/G

  • Confidence Score: 80

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 over

  • 4 out of last 5 over

Key Analysis

MacKenzie Gore’s strikeout line is set at 6.5, and the numbers suggest strong value on the over—especially at even money (+100) on Pinnacle. Gore has cleared this line in 4 of his last 5 starts, including his most recent outing with 7 Ks. He’s averaging 8.6 strikeouts over his last five games and 8.333 on the season, both well above the target. His 3-game average of 7.33 Ks also shows recent consistency. The matchup is favorable too: Baltimore is striking out 8.71 times per game, giving Gore plenty of upside. With a confidence score of 80 and strong recent form, this is a solid plus-money play worth backing.

Risk Factors

  • Orioles L3 K rate drops to 7.67

MLB Home Run Hitters Edge

MLB hitters with higher probability to hit a home run based on season stats, matchups with starting pitchers and other key stats (odds from DraftKings)

  • Francisco Lindor +370

  • Jose Ramirez +280

  • Kyle Schwarber +250

  • Daulton Varsho +400

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Best Value Plays

  1. 🔥 MacKenzie Gore OVER 6.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+100 Pinnacle)

    • Most consistent trend: 6/7 in L7

    • Averaging 8.6 K/G over last 5 including a 13 K outing

    • Baltimore is striking out 8.71 times per game, giving Gore plenty of upside

Trending Overs

1. 📈 Cole Ragans OVER 6.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-142 FanDuel)

  • Hot streak: 6/7 in L7

  • Averaging 8.2 K/G in L5, including an 11 K outing

  • Cardinals strike out 7.73 times per game on the season, but that number has jumped to 8.67 over their last three games and 8.61 on the road

2. ⚡ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. OVER 0.5 Walks (+105 DraftKings)

  • 9/L10 games going OVER

  • Averaging 1.2 BB/G over his last 5 including 2 multi-walk games

  • Jack Flaherty has struggled with control—issuing 12 walks over his last 7 starts and giving up 2 or more BB in all but one outing this season

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!

— The WagerLens Team