We’re staying in the green this month, sitting at +1.5 units and eyeing a nice boost with today’s full MLB slate. First pitch comes early at 12:30pm ET, and we’ve got a card packed with sharp reads — a mix of reliable bats, strong trends, and fade-worthy matchups. With 3.37 units of potential profit on the board, let’s lock in, trust the data, and keep stacking wins!

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Table of Contents

• 📊 WagerLens Performance Review

• 💎 Today’s Featured Props

• MLB Home Run Hitters Edge

• Today's Featured Props Recap

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

MLB: 149-129 (54%; +19.9 Units)

July ‘25: 20-18 (53%; +1.5 Units)

All-Time: 274-230 (54%; +55.05 Units)

💎 Today’s Featured Props

🎯 Jose Ramirez OVER 0.5 Runs Scored

Best Price: +100 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 1 Run

• Last 3-Game Average: 1.33 R/G

• Last 5-Game Average: 1.4 R/G

• Season Average: 0.629 R/G

• Confidence Score: 96

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 2 out of last 3 over

• 4 out of last 5 over

• 9 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

José Ramírez is locked in, and the over on 0.5 runs scored at +100 is a strong value play. He’s scored in 9 of his last 10 games, including 4 of his last 5, with a 5-game average of 1.4 runs per game—more than double his season mark of 0.629. Ramírez is slashing .336 OBP and .528 SLG vs right-handed pitching, and he’ll face Zach Eflin, who’s been struggling mightily with a 5.95 ERA, allowing 17 runs and 27 hits over his last 9 innings. With José getting on base and Cleveland’s offense clicking, he’s in a great spot to cross the plate again.

Risk Factors

• Will need to get on base and likely requires help from others in the lineup

🎯 Jorge Soler OVER 0.5 Hits

Best Price: -130 on BetRivers

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 1 hit

• Last 3-Game Average: 1 H/G

• Last 5-Game Average: 1 H/G

• Season Average: 0.741 H/G

• Confidence Score: 92

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 2 out of last 3 over

• 4 out of last 5 over

• 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Jorge Soler has been consistently making contact, and the over on 0.5 hits at -130 looks like a strong value spot. He’s recorded at least one hit in 8 of his last 10 games, including 4 of his last 5, with both his 3- and 5-game averages sitting at 1 hit per game—above his season average of 0.741. Soler holds a .300 OBP vs left-handed pitching and faces Sean Manaea, who’s allowed 6 hits across just 2 starts this season, showing he can be reached. With Soler in steady form and a hittable lefty on the mound, he’s in a good position to keep the streak alive.

Risk Factors

• Manaea allowed just 1 hit in last start

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🎯 Michael Toglia UNDER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Best Price: -125 on Caesars

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 1 H/R/RBIs

• Last 3-Game Average: 0.33 H/R/RBIs per game

• Last 5-Game Average: 0.40 H/R/RBIs per game

• Season Average: 1.329 H/R/RBIs per game

• Confidence Score: 91

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 3 out of last 3 under

• 5 out of last 5 under

• 9 out of last 10 under

Key Analysis

Michael Toglia's recent production suggests the under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-125) is a sharp play. He’s cleared this line just once in his last 10 games, hitting the under in 9 of 10, including 5 straight. His 3-game average is just 0.33, and 5-game average is 0.40, both well below the line. While his season average is higher, it’s buoyed by earlier performance. Toglia is also hitting just .184 vs RHP, and although Andre Pallante has a 4.71 ERA, he's only allowing 1.02 hits per inning, keeping damage in check. This is a low-risk, data-backed under.

Risk Factors

• Pallante has been hit or miss in recent outings

🎯 Chicago Cubs UNDER 5.5 Team Total Runs

Best Price: -125 on Caesars

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 6 Runs

• Last 3-Game Average: 3.67 R/G

• Last 5-Game Average: 4.2 R/G

• Season Average: 5.28 R/G

• Confidence Score: 85

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 2 out of last 3 under

• 3 out of last 5 under

• 7 out of last 10 under

Key Analysis

The Chicago Cubs UNDER 5.5 Team Total Runs (-125) looks like a value play based on recent trends. They've scored under this line in 7 of their last 10 games, averaging just 3.67 runs over their last 3 and 4.2 over their last 5 — both well below their season average of 5.28. Seth Lugo’s 2.94 ERA and the Royals' solid bullpen (3.83 ERA) add support to the under. Plus, the Cubs have seen a slight dip in run production at home, making this a quietly strong angle to consider.

Risk Factors

• Lugo allowed 5 ER in last start

MLB Home Run Hitters Edge

MLB hitters with higher probability to hit a home run based on season stats, matchups with starting pitchers and other key stats (odds from DraftKings)

• Austin Hays +370

• Jackson Merrill +550

• Shohei Ohtani +140

• Angel Martinez +600

Today's Featured Props Recap

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Best Value Plays

1. 🔥 Jose Ramirez OVER 0.5 Runs Scored (+100 DraftKings)

   • Most consistent trend: 9/10 in L10

   • Averaging 1.4 R/G over last 5

   • Ramírez is slashing .336 OBP and .528 SLG vs right-handed pitching, and he’ll face Zach Eflin, who’s been struggling mightily with a 5.95 ERA, allowing 17 runs and 27 hits over his last 9 innings

Trending Overs

1. 📈 Jorge Soler OVER 0.5 Hits (-130 BertRivers)

• Hot streak: 8/10 in L10

• Averaging 1 H/G in L5

• Soler holds a .300 OBP vs left-handed pitching and faces Sean Manaea, who’s allowed 6 hits across just 2 starts this season

Trending Unders

1. 📉 Michael Toglia UNDER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-125 Caesars)

• 9/L10 games staying UNDER

• Averaging just 0.40 H/R/RBIs per game over last 5

• Toglia is hitting just .184 vs RHP, and although Andre Pallante has a 4.71 ERA, he's only allowing 1.02 hits per inning

2. ⬇️ Chicago Cubs UNDER 5.5 Team Total Runs (-125 Caesars)

• 7/L10 games staying UNDER

• Averaging just 3.67 R/G over last 3 games

• Seth Lugo’s 2.94 ERA and the Royals' solid bullpen (3.83 ERA) add support to the under

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!

— The WagerLens Team