Last night’s TNF was a heartbreaker, three missed field goals kept us from cashing the Over, falling just 3 points shy and just missing profitability. That’s the grind sometimes. But we turn the page quickly. Today’s MLB slate sets up with some lopsided pitching matchups that we’re eager to attack. We’re locked, loaded, and ready to roll into a green weekend.

Table of Contents

• 📊 WagerLens Performance Review

• 💎 Today’s Featured Props

• Ready to Raise Your Betting Game?

• Today's Featured Props Recap

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

Yesterday (09/11): 1-2 (33%; -1.1 Units)

MLB: 213-194 (52%; +13.41 Units)

September ‘25: 16-19 (46%; -3.04 Units)

All-Time: 349-304 (53%; +50.4 Units)

💎 Today’s Featured Props

🎯 Shane Baz OVER 4.5 Hits Allowed

Best Price: -137 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 5 Hits

• Last 3-Game Average: 4.33 H/G

• Last 5-Game Average: 5.2 H/G

• Season Average: 5.357 H/G

• Confidence Score: 95

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 2 out of last 3 over

• 4 out of last 5 over

• 9 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Shane Baz OVER 4.5 Hits Allowed sets up well given both his track record and the Cubs’ recent form. He’s averaging 5.36 hits allowed per game this season, comfortably above the line, and has gone over in 9 of his last 10 starts. Even in shorter samples, the consistency shows, with 5 hits in his last outing and a 5.2 average over his last five. The Cubs also provide a strong matchup angle: they had 11 hits in their last game and average 8.42 per contest on the season, which suggests plenty of contact opportunities. With a high confidence score of 95, the over looks like the right side here.

Risk Factors

• Cubs go deep in at bats and Baz gets pulled before facing enough batters to allow 5+ hits

🎯 Lucas Giolito OVER 4.5 Hits Allowed

Best Price: -121 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 7 Hits

• Last 3-Game Average: 4.67 H/G

• Last 5-Game Average: 5.2 H/G

• Season Average: 5.13 H/G

• Confidence Score: 88

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 1 out of last 3 over

• 3 out of last 5 over

• 7 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Lucas Giolito OVER 4.5 Hits Allowed lines up as a solid play with both season-long trends and matchup support. He’s averaging 5.13 hits allowed per game and has gone over in 7 of his last 10 starts, including 5.2 per game across his last five. The Yankees come in hot at the plate, piling up 14 hits in their last game and averaging 8.67 per contest over their last three. While the 1-of-3 recent hit rate adds a touch of short-term variance, the overall consistency and the opponent’s current form point toward the over cashing here with an 88 confidence score.

Risk Factors

• Inconsistencies with the Yankees offensive production

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🎯 Martin Perez UNDER 5.5 Hits Allowed

Best Price: -114 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 5 Hits

• Last 3-Game Average: 3.67 H/G

• Last 5-Game Average: 3.4 H/G

• Season Average: 3.44 H/G

• Confidence Score: 92

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 3 out of last 3 under

• 5 out of last 5 under

• 9 out of last 10 under

Key Analysis

Martin Pérez UNDER 5.5 Hits Allowed looks like a strong angle with both his form and the matchup working in his favor. He’s averaging just 3.44 hits allowed per game on the season, and his recent stretch has been even sharper, holding opponents to 3.4 or fewer hits across his last five outings. The under has cashed in 9 of his last 10 starts, showing impressive consistency. The Guardians don’t present much of a threat either, with only 6.33 hits per game over their last three and the lowest team hit rate in MLB this season at 7.35. With a 92 confidence score, this under has a lot of support.

Risk Factors

• Perez has been very close to tonights line in his last 2 starts with 5 hits allowed in each

🎯 Jackson Chourio OVER 0.5 Runs Scored

Best Price: -110 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 1 run

• Last 3-Game Average: 0.67 R/G

• Last 5-Game Average: 0.6 R/G

• Season Average: 0.681 R/G

• Confidence Score: 85

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 2 out of last 3 over

• 3 out of last 5 over

• 7 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Jackson Chourio OVER 0.5 Runs Scored has some sneaky value here. He’s scoring at a steady clip this season (0.681 R/G) and has cashed this line in 7 of his last 10 games, including 2 of the last 3. The matchup adds extra juice, Andre Pallante has been hittable, posting a 5.28 ERA with 24 runs allowed in his last 5 outings, and Chourio already tagged him for a hit and a run in their last meeting. With Milwaukee’s lineup behind him and Pallante’s struggles to keep runners off base, Chourio has a good chance to cross the plate again, making the over appealing at near-even money.

Risk Factors

• Chourio will need to get on base and likely need help from others in the lineup to score

Today's Featured Props Recap

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Best Value Plays

1. 🔥 Jackson Chourio OVER 0.5 Runs Scored (-110 DraftKings)

   • Most consistent trend: 7/10 in L10

   • Averaging 0.67 R/G over his last 3

   • Andre Pallante has been hittable, posting a 5.28 ERA with 24 runs allowed in his last 5 outings, and Chourio already tagged him for a hit and a run in their last meeting

Trending Overs

1. 📈 Shane Baz OVER 4.5 Hits Allowed (-137 DraftKings)

• Hot streak: 9/10 in L10

• Averaging 5.2 H/G allowed in L5

• Cubs provide a strong matchup angle: they had 11 hits in their last game and average 8.42 per contest on the season, which suggests plenty of contact opportunities

2. ⚡ Lucas Giolito OVER 4.5 Hits Allowed (-121 DraftKings)

• 7/L10 games going OVER

• Averaging 5.2 H/G allowed in L5

• The Yankees come in hot at the plate, piling up 14 hits in their last game and averaging 8.67 per contest over their last three

Trending Unders

1. 📉 Martin Perez UNDER 5.5 Hits Allowed (-114 DraftKings)

• 9/L10 games staying UNDER

• Allowing just 3.4 H/G over his last 5 starts

• The Guardians don’t present much of a threat either, with only 6.33 hits per game over their last three and the lowest team hit rate in MLB this season at 7.35

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!

— The WagerLens Team