We’ve clawed our way back into the green this month — not by much, but hey, profit is profit. Today’s slate features three games with clear pitching mismatches, and that means value is on the board. Between these spots, there’s a buffet of juicy props worth targeting. Whether you're locking in a few straight plays or crafting a tight parlay, the opportunity is there. Let’s cash in.

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Table of Contents

• 📊 WagerLens Performance Review

• 💎 Today’s Featured Matchups

  • 🎯 Houston Astros @ LA Angels

• MLB Home Run Hitters Edge

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

MLB: 109-102 (52%; +9.62 Units)

June ‘25: 22-19 (54%; +0.477 Units)

All-Time: 234-204 (53%; +43.8 Units)

💎 Today’s Featured Matchups

🎯 Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees

Pitching Preview:

The Yankees send Max Fried to the mound, and he's been dominant. Fried holds a 9-2 record with a 1.89 ERA, the third-best mark in the majors. He’s worked deep in games lately, logging 7 innings in each of his last two starts while keeping hitters off-balance.

Baltimore counters with Tomoyuki Sugano, who enters with a 5-4 record and a 3.38 ERA. However, he's been shaky recently — failing to get through 5 innings in his last two outings, allowing 7 runs on 14 hits in that span.

Offensive Trends:

Season-long averages favor the Yankees, who are scoring 5.12 runs per game compared to 4.01 for the Orioles. That said, New York's bats have cooled off, managing just 9 total runs across their last 5 games.

Prop Spotlight:

Max Fried OVER 6.5 Strikeouts – Fried’s recent consistency makes this a viable option.

Max Fried OVER 18.5 Outs Recorded (+ odds) – With back-to-back 7-inning outings, this plus-money play has real value.

Aaron Judge OVER 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs – Judge is 2-for-3 career vs Sugano, and boasts a 1.137 OPS vs righties.

🎯 New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies

Pitching Preview:

Tonight’s mound matchup is heavily tilted toward Philadelphia. Zack Wheeler takes the ball for the Phillies with a 7-2 record and a 2.76 ERA. He’s been in control lately, working 6+ innings in back-to-back starts, allowing just 2 runs on 7 hits across those outings.

The Mets hand the ball to Blade Tidwell, making just his second MLB start. His debut was rough: 6 earned runs, 9 hits, and 3 walks in 3.2 innings. With that 14.73 ERA and a red-hot Phillies offense, the edge here is clear.

Offensive Trends:

On the season, the scoring is fairly close — 4.64 R/G for Philly vs 4.44 R/G for the Mets. But momentum tells a different story: the Mets enter this one riding a 6-game losing streak, while the Phillies continue to surge.

Prop Spotlight:

Game Total OVER 8.5 Runs – With a shaky Mets starter and strong lineups on both sides, this number could get beat.

Phillies Moneyline – Clear edge on the mound and current form make this a strong lean.

Zack Wheeler OVER 18.5 Outs Recorded (+ odds) – He’s averaging just below this mark recently and could feast on a struggling Mets lineup.

Zack Wheeler OVER 6.5 Strikeouts - The Mets are averaging 10.33 K/G over their last 3 and Wheeler has cleared this line in 8 of his last 10 starts

🎯 Houston Astros @ LA Angels

Pitching Preview:

The Astros turn to Hunter Brown, who’s been outstanding in recent weeks. He enters with an 8-3 record and a 1.88 ERA, and over his last three starts he’s allowed just 3 total runs on 8 hits — a clear sign he’s locked in.

The Angels counter with Yusei Kikuchi, who’s sporting a 3.05 ERA but just a 2-6 record. He’s given up 7+ hits in two of his last three starts, though he flashed strikeout upside with 10 Ks in his most recent outing.

Offensive Trends:

It’s a close matchup in terms of run production: the Astros are averaging 4.28 R/G, while the Angels sit at 4.09 R/G. However, Houston’s advantage on the mound could tip the balance tonight.

Prop Spotlight:

Astros Moneyline – Brown’s dominance and Houston’s consistency make this a solid side.

Hunter Brown OVER 17.5 Outs – He’s pitching deep and efficiently; this number looks reachable.

Hunter Brown OVER 6.5 Strikeouts – Given LA’s swing tendencies, he’s well-positioned to hit this.

Jeremy Peña OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs – Peña owns an .874 OPS vs LHP and an .866 OPS in June, making this a strong value spot.

MLB Home Run Hitters Edge

MLB hitters with higher probability to hit a home run based on season stats, matchups with starting pitchers and other key stats (odds from DraftKings)

• Shohei Ohtani +230

• Brandon Lowe +330

• Hunter Goodman +240

• Ketel Marte +230

• Jake Myers +700

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!

— The WagerLens Team