Power Props, Quiet Innings, and Big Edges

Confidence rides with Kurtz, Polanco, Jose, and a first-inning fade

AuthorAuthor

Sage Davis & Brian McAbee
July 25, 2025

We’re still in the green for July and looking to stack even more profit with today’s card. The data lines up, the trends are strong, and we’ve got a high-confidence group of props ready to roll. From red-hot bats to sharp early-inning reads, everything points to another winning day. Let’s stay locked in and keep cashing!

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Table of Contents

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

MLB: 151-130 (54%; +20.66 Units)

July ‘25: 22-19 (54%; +2.31 Units)

All-Time: 276-231 (54%; +55.85 Units)

🎯 Jackson Chourio OVER 0.5 Singles

Best Price: -120 on BetMGM

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 2 Singles

  • Last 3-Game Average: 1.33 1B/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 1.4 1B/G

  • Season Average: 0.693 1B/G

  • Confidence Score: 97

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 over

  • 5 out of last 5 over

  • 9 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Jackson Chourio’s recent form makes the over 0.5 Singles (-120) a strong value. He’s hit this line in 9 of his last 10 games, including 5 straight, with a 3-game average of 1.33 singles and a 5-game average of 1.4—both well above his season mark of 0.693. While his .272 OBP vs RHP isn’t eye-popping, he’s consistently finding base hits lately. He faces Cal Quantrill, who’s allowed 3+ hits in 8 of his last 10 starts and enters with a 1.1 H/IP rate, making Chourio’s path to a single very achievable. Back the hot bat in a favorable matchup.

Risk Factors

  • Quantrill allowed just 2 hits last start (6 IP)

🎯 Nick Kurtz OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Best Price: -110 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 4 H/R/RBIs

  • Last 3-Game Average: 2.33 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Last 5-Game Average: 3 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Season Average: 2.415 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Confidence Score: 97

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 over

  • 4 out of last 5 over

  • 9 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Nick Kurtz's over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-110) looks like a sharp play given his recent production and matchup. He’s cleared this line in 9 of his last 10 games, including 4 of his last 5. His 5-game average sits at 3 H/R/RBIs, and even his 3-game mark of 2.33 comfortably clears the line. Kurtz brings a strong .320 average, .401 OBP, and .692 SLG vs RHP into a matchup with Ryan Gusto, who owns a 4.46 ERA and is allowing 1.08 hits per inning. With Gusto’s inconsistent usage and Kurtz’s consistent output, this prop offers high value.

Risk Factors

  • Astros strong bullpen

🎯 Jorge Polanco OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Best Price: +105 on BetMGM

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 3 H/R/RBIs

  • Last 3-Game Average: 1.67 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Last 5-Game Average: 1.8 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Season Average: 1.869 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Confidence Score: 93

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 over

  • 3 out of last 5 over

  • 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Jorge Polanco’s over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+105) presents solid value in today’s matchup. He’s hit this line in 8 of his last 10 games, and while his recent 3-game and 5-game averages (1.67 and 1.8) sit just below the line, they reflect steady contribution. Polanco’s .316 OBP and .483 SLG vs righties boost confidence, especially against Jose Soriano, who carries a 3.83 ERA and is allowing 5.48 hits per game this season. With plus money odds and consistent production, this is a strong prop in a favorable spot.

Risk Factors

  • Soriano strong ERA

🎯 Nats @ Twins NRFI

Best Price: -108 on FanDuel

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: NRFI

  • Last 3-Game Average: 2/3 NRFI

  • Last 5-Game Average: 4/5 NRFI

  • Last 10-Game Average: 9/10 NRFI

Key Analysis

The Twins @ Nationals NRFI (-108) is backed by strong recent trends, with this prop hitting in 9 of the last 10 games between these teams, including 4 of the last 5 and 2 of the last 3. Both lineups have been slow to start games lately, and recent first-inning scoring data suggests another quiet opening frame is likely. While NRFIs are never without risk, the trends point to solid value here.

Risk Factors

  • Twins SP Matthews 6.26 ERA

MLB Home Run Hitters Edge

MLB hitters with higher probability to hit a home run based on season stats, matchups with starting pitchers and other key stats (odds from DraftKings)

  • Aaron Judge +145

  • Brice Turang +650

  • Jordan Westburg +400

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Best Value Plays

  1. 🔥 Jorge Polanco OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+105 BetMGM)

    • Most consistent trend: 8/10 in L10

    • Averaging 1.8 H/R/RBIs per game over last 5

    • Polanco’s .316 OBP and .483 SLG vs righties boost confidence, especially against Jose Soriano, who carries a 3.83 ERA and is allowing 5.48 hits per game this season

Trending Overs

1. 📈 Jackson Chourio OVER 0.5 Singles (-120 BetMGM)

  • Hot streak: 9/10 in L10

  • Averaging 1.4 singles per game in L5

  • He faces Cal Quantrill, who’s allowed 3+ hits in 8 of his last 10 starts and enters with a 1.1 H/IP rate, making Chourio’s path to a single very achievable

2. ⚡ Nick Kurtz OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-110 DraftKings)

  • 9/L10 games going OVER

  • Averaging 3 H/R/RBIs per game over last 5

  • Kurtz brings a strong .320 average, .401 OBP, and .692 SLG vs RHP into a matchup with Ryan Gusto, who owns a 4.46 ERA and is allowing 1.08 hits per inning

Trending Unders

1. 📉 Twins @ Nationals NRFI (-108 FanDuel)

  • 9/L10 games staying UNDER

  • Both lineups have been slow to start games lately, and recent first-inning scoring data suggests another quiet opening frame is likely

  • Twins SP has a high ERA which increases risk

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!

— The WagerLens Team