Primetime Props: NFL MNF & MLB Slate Breakdown

RB Props & High Confidence MLB Trends

AuthorAuthor

Sage Davis & Brian McAbee
September 08, 2025

We flipped the script this weekend. After stacking an 8-unit profit across Saturday and Sunday, including a 7-2 NFL slate yesterday (+6.91u), we’re officially back in the green for September. Momentum is on our side, and we’re looking to keep it rolling tonight. Today’s card features 2 MLB props backed by strong trends and 2 MNF props centered around the ground game. Each play lines up with high-confidence data, giving us a great shot to build on the weekend’s success.

Table of Contents

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

Yesterday (09/07): 7-2 (78%; +6.91 Units)

MLB: 211-191 (52%; +14.6 Units)

NFL: 14-7 (67%; +6.28 Units)

September ‘25: 13-12 (52%; +1.24 Units)

All-Time: 346-297 (54%; +54.7 Units)

⭐️ WagerLens Pick of the Day

🎯 Aaron Nola OVER 2.5 Earned Runs

Best Price: +100 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 6 ER

  • Last 3-Game Average: 4 ER/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 5.4 ER/G

  • Season Average: 4 ER/G

  • Confidence Score: 86

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 over

  • 4 out of last 5 over

  • 7 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Aaron Nola’s OVER 2.5 Earned Runs at even money looks like a sharp play given his recent struggles and the matchup. Nola has allowed at least 3 earned runs in 7 of his last 10 starts, including 4 ER in his most recent outing against the Mets. His recent form is concerning, averaging 5.4 ER/G over his last five starts with a 6.92 ERA in that span, well above his season baseline of 4.0. The Mets have been particularly effective against right-handed pitching, posting a .445 slugging percentage, and several hitters in their lineup have historically hit Nola well. With his command slipping and New York swinging the bats with authority, this over has strong support and offers solid value at +100.

🎯 D’Andre Swift OVER 53.5 Rushing Yards

Best Price: -110 on ESPN Bet

Key Analysis

Swift enters 2025 behind an improved Bears offensive line and with Ben Johnson now calling plays, a coordinator known for maximizing the run game. He rushed for 79 yards in his last matchup against Minnesota, and the setup this season points to a strong workload and efficiency on the ground. With upgraded blocking and a favorable scheme, Swift has a solid path to clear this number.

🎯 Aaron Jones OVER 12.5 Rushing Attempts

Best Price: +102 on FanDuel

Key Analysis

Jones averaged 20 carries per game in two matchups with Chicago last season, and the Bears have yet to show they can slow him down. With rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy making his first NFL start, it’s likely Minnesota leans on its veteran running back to steady the offense. That combination of history and game script makes Jones a strong candidate to see 13+ rushing attempts.

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🎯 Sal Frelick OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Best Price: +110 on Caesars

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 3 H/R/RBIs

  • Last 3-Game Average: 1.67 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Last 5-Game Average: 2.2 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Season Average: 2.071

  • Confidence Score: 92

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 over

  • 4 out of last 5 over

  • 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Sal Frelick’s OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs at plus money is well-supported by both his production and matchup. Frelick has cleared this line in 8 of his last 10 games and is averaging 2.2 H/R/RBIs over his last five, slightly above his strong season average of 2.07. He’s shown consistency against left-handed pitching with a .306 average and .361 OBP, which is notable here against Cody Latz, who has been stretched into starting duty despite being more of a relief arm. Latz has allowed 9 hits and 4 earned runs over his last two outings, suggesting plenty of opportunity for Milwaukee’s bats to generate traffic. With Frelick’s balanced ability to contribute through contact, getting on base, and driving in runs, this over provides strong value at +110.

Risk Factors

  • Will likely need help from others in the lineup to cash

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Best Value Plays

  1. 🔥 Sal Frelick OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+110 Caesars)

    • Most consistent trend: 8/10 in L10

    • Averaging 2.2 H/R/RBIs per game over last 5

    • Has shown consistency against left-handed pitching with a .306 average and .361 OBP, which is notable here against Cody Latz, who has been stretched into starting duty despite being more of a relief arm

Trending Overs

1. 📈 Aaron Nola OVER 2.5 Earned Runs (+100 DraftKings)

  • Hot streak: 4/5 in L5

  • Averaging 5.4 ER/G in L5

  • The Mets have been particularly effective against right-handed pitching, posting a .445 slugging percentage, and several hitters in their lineup have historically hit Nola well

2. ⚡ D’Andre Swift OVER 53.5 Rushing Yards (-110 ESPN Bet)

  • He rushed for 79 yards in his last matchup against Minnesota

  • Behind an improved Bears offensive line and with Ben Johnson now calling plays, a coordinator known for maximizing the run game

3. 💥 Aaron Jones OVER 12.5 Rushing Attempts (+102 FanDuel)

  • With rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy making his first NFL start, it’s likely Minnesota leans on its veteran running back to steady the offense

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!

— The WagerLens Team