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Profits on the Diamond: High-Value MLB Props Backed by Real Data
De La Cruz, Arraez, and Ramirez Aim to Exploit Favorable Matchups
Sage Davis & Brian McAbee
June 08, 2025
We kept the wins coming with another 2-1 day, pushing our June win rate to a strong 63%. Momentum is on our side, and we’re locked in for today’s full MLB slate. Plus, Game 2 of the NBA Finals tips off tonight—if it’s anything like Game 1, we’re in for another thriller. Let’s stay hot and cash in!
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Table of Contents
📊 WagerLens Performance Review
Yesterday (06/07): 2-1 (67%; +0.67 Units)
MLB: 97-89 (52%; +12.5 Units)
June ‘25: 10-6 (63%; +3.34 Units)
All-Time: 222-190 (54%; + 47.7 Units)
💎 Today’s Featured Props
🎯 Elly De La Cruz OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
Best Price: -135 on ESPN Bet
Recent Performance
Last Game: 3 H/R/RBIs
Last 3-Game Average: 1 H/R/RBIs per game
Last 5-Game Average: 1.6 H/R/RBIs per game
Season Average: 2.385 H/R/RBIs per game
Confidence Score: 85
How Has This Prop Performed?
1 out of last 3 over
3 out of last 5 over
7 out of last 10 over
Key Analysis
Elly De La Cruz's OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs prop is well-positioned today, with a solid combination of season-long production and a favorable matchup. While his recent 3-game average sits at just 1 H/R/RBI per game, he bounced back with a 3-HRRBI performance in his last outing, pushing his season average up to an impressive 2.385. He's cleared this line in 7 of his last 10 games, indicating a strong long-term trend. The matchup against Zac Gallen adds further appeal—Gallen has struggled recently, surrendering 22 earned runs on 35 hits over his last 7 starts. De La Cruz’s .291 batting average and .912 OPS vs right-handed pitching further boost confidence. With a Confidence Score of 85, this prop has solid value, especially at -135 odds.
Risk Factors
0-for-3 career vs Gallen
🎯 Luis Arraez OVER 1.5 Hits +Runs + RBIs
Best Price: -135 on ESPN Bet
Recent Performance
Last Game: 3 H/R/RBIs
Last 3-Game Average: 2.33 H/R/RBIs per game
Last 5-Game Average: 1.8 H/R/RBIs per game
Season Average: 1.982 H/R/RBIs per game
Confidence Score: 84
How Has This Prop Performed?
3 out of last 3 over
4 out of last 5 over
7 out of last 10 over
Key Analysis
Luis Arraez comes into today’s matchup riding a hot streak, clearing the 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs line in each of his last 3 games and in 4 of his last 5. His recent 3-game average of 2.33 H/R/RBIs per game is notably higher than his season average of 1.982, showing he's trending up. Arraez is a contact specialist with a strong .297 batting average and a .763 OPS against righties, which matches up well against Freddy Peralta, who has struggled with command lately—allowing 14 runs on 32 hits and 18 walks over his last 7 starts. While Arraez is just 2 for 6 in his career vs Peralta, his consistency and current form, along with Peralta's vulnerability, support a strong case for the over. With a Confidence Score of 84, this prop has both momentum and matchup on its side.
Risk Factors
Peralta has a high K rate
🎯 Jose Ramirez OVER 1.5 Total Bases
Best Price: -106 on BetRivers
Recent Performance
Last Game: 5 TB
Last 3-Game Average: 2.67 TB/G
Last 5-Game Average: 2.4 TB/G
Season Average: 2.115 TB/G
Confidence Score: 92
How Has This Prop Performed?
2 out of last 3 over
4 out of last 5 over
8 out of last 10 over
Key Analysis
Jose Ramirez is in a prime spot to hit the OVER 1.5 Total Bases today, with nearly every trend and matchup pointing in his favor. He’s been red-hot lately, averaging 2.67 total bases over his last 3 games and 2.4 over his last 5—both well above his season average of 2.115. He’s hit this prop in 8 of his last 10 games, including a 5-TB outing last game, which highlights both consistency and power. Ramirez also crushes left-handed pitching, boasting a .421 batting average and 1.067 OPS against southpaws. Today he faces Brandon Walter, a relatively unproven arm with just 10 career appearances and a 5.14 ERA, making this a highly favorable matchup. With a 92 Confidence Score, Ramirez’s over on total bases offers elite value at near-even odds.
Risk Factors
Walter allowed just 3 hits in his only start of the season
MLB Home Run Hitters Edge
MLB hitters with higher probability to hit a home run based on season stats, matchups with starting pitchers and other key stats (odds from DraftKings)
Jake Burger +350
Kyle Tucker +600
Nolan Arenado +475
Francisco Lindor +290
Mike Trout +240
Today's Featured Props Recap
We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:
Best Value Plays
🔥 Jose Ramirez OVER 1.5 Total Bases (-106 BetRivers)
Most consistent trend: 8/10 in L10
Averaging 2.4 TB/G over last 5
Ramirez boasts a .421 batting average and 1.067 OPS against southpaws
Trending Overs
1. 📈 Elly De La Cruz OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-135 ESPN Bet)
Hot streak: 7/10 in L10
Averaging 2.385 H/R?RBIs per game this season
Gallen’s recent struggles (22 ER, 35 H over L7) paired with De La Cruz’s .291 batting average and .912 OPS vs right-handed pitching further boosts confidence
2. ⚡ Luis Arraez OVER 1.5 Hits +Runs + RBIs (-135 ESPN Bet)
4/L5 games going OVER
Averaging 2.33 H/R/RBIs per game over last 3
Arraez is a contact specialist with a strong .297 batting average and a .763 OPS against righties, which matches up well against Freddy Peralta, who has struggled with command lately—allowing 14 runs on 32 hits and 18 walks over his last 7 starts
All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.
As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!
— The WagerLens Team