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Refreshed, Recharged, and Ready to Cash
Garcia and Neto stay productive, Isbel stays consistent, and the Pirates keep slumping
Sage Davis & Brian McAbee
July 21, 2025
We’re back in action after a well-earned week off! The crew is rested, recharged, and ready to dive headfirst into the final stretch of July. Despite the brief break, we’re still sitting in the green for the month — and now it’s time to build on that profit with a fresh slate of high-confidence straight plays. Let’s close out July strong, stack some wins, and keep the momentum rolling. Time to cash!
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Table of Contents
📊 WagerLens Performance Review
MLB: 147-127 (54%; +20.1 Units)
July ‘25: 18-16 (53%; +1.74 Units)
All-Time: 272-228 (54%; +55.3 Units)
💎 Today’s Featured Props
🎯 Zach Neto OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
Best Price: +100 on DraftKings
Recent Performance
Last Game: 6 H/R/RBIs
Last 3-Game Average: 3.67 H/R/RBIs per game
Last 5-Game Average: 3.6 H/R/RBIs per game
Season Average: 2.375 H/R/RBIs per game
Confidence Score: 97
How Has This Prop Performed?
3 out of last 3 over
5 out of last 5 over
9 out of last 10 over
Key Analysis
Zach Neto is on a serious heater, and the over on 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs at +100 is loaded with value. He’s hit this mark in 9 of his last 10 games, including five straight, with a 5-game average of 3.6 H/R/RBIs and a 3-game average of 3.67—well above his season average of 2.375. Neto owns a .346 OBP vs right-handed pitching and faces Kodai Senga, who has allowed 4+ hits in 7 of his last 10 starts. With Neto locked in and producing across the board, this even-money prop is a strong play in a plus matchup.
Risk Factors
Senga holds strong ERA
🎯 Kyle Isbel OVER 0.5 Hits
Best Price: -120 on BetMGM
Recent Performance
Last Game: 2 Hits
Last 3-Game Average: 1.33 H/G
Last 5-Game Average: 1.2 H/G
Season Average: 0.686 H/G
Confidence Score: 92
How Has This Prop Performed?
3 out of last 3 over
5 out of last 5 over
8 out of last 10 over
Key Analysis
Kyle Isbel has been quietly consistent, and the over on 0.5 hits at -120 looks like a sharp value play. He’s recorded at least one hit in 8 of his last 10 games, including five straight, with a 5-game average of 1.2 hits—well above his season average of 0.686. He owns a .280 OBP vs right-handed pitching and will face Ryan Brasier to open what’s likely a bullpen game for the Cubs. With Isbel seeing the ball well and facing a rotating cast of arms, he’s in a strong spot to grab at least one base knock.
Risk Factors
Brasier high K rate in his short relief appearances
🎯 Adolis Garcia OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
Best Price: -105 on Caesars
Recent Performance
Last Game: 2 H/R/RBIs
Last 3-Game Average: 1.33 H/R/RBIs per game
Last 5-Game Average: 1.8 H/R/RBIs per game
Season Average: 1.832 H/R/RBIs per game
Confidence Score: 91
How Has This Prop Performed?
2 out of last 3 over
4 out of last 5 over
8 out of last 10 over
Key Analysis
Adolis García is trending in the right direction, and the over on 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs at -105 brings solid value. He’s hit this mark in 8 of his last 10 games, including 4 of his last 5, with a 5-game average of 1.8 H/R/RBIs—right in line with his season average of 1.832. While his OBP vs lefties sits at .264, he faces Pablo López, who’s carrying a 4.20 ERA and has allowed 3+ hits in 11 straight starts. With García producing and drawing a hittable lefty, he’s in a great spot to stay on track and cash this number once again.
Risk Factors
Lopez has a high K rate
🎯 Pittsburgh Pirates UNDER 3.5 Team Runs
Best Price: -107 on Pinnacle
Recent Performance
Last Game: 2 Runs
Last 3-Game Average: 2.33 R/G
Last 5-Game Average: 2.6 R/G
Season Average: 3.33 R/G
Confidence Score: 85
How Has This Prop Performed?
2 out of last 3 under
3 out of last 5 under
8 out of last 10 under
Key Analysis
The Pirates have struggled to produce runs lately, making the under on 3.5 team runs at -107 a sharp angle. They’ve scored 3 or fewer runs in 8 of their last 10 games, with a 5-game average of 2.6 runs and just 2.33 over their last 3. Their season average sits at 3.33 R/G, already below today’s line. They’ll face Jack Flaherty, who’s held opponents to 3 runs or fewer in 8 of his last 10 starts. With Pittsburgh’s bats slumping and Flaherty dealing, the under looks like a strong spot to target.
Risk Factors
Flaherty ERA above Pirates run line
Today's Featured Props Recap
We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:
Best Value Plays
🔥 Zach Neto OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+100 DraftKings)
Most consistent trend: 9/10 in L10
Averaging 3.6 H/R/RBIs per game over last 5
Neto owns a .346 OBP vs right-handed pitching and faces Kodai Senga, who has allowed 4+ hits in 7 of his last 10 starts
Trending Overs
1. 📈 Kyle Isbel OVER 0.5 Hits (-120 BetMGM)
Hot streak: 5/5 in L5
Averaging 1.2 H/G in L5
Isbel owns a .280 OBP vs right-handed pitching and will face Ryan Brasier to open what’s likely a bullpen game for the Cubs
2. ⚡ Adolis Garcia OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-105 Caesars)
8/L10 games going OVER
Averaging 1.8 H/R/RBIs per game over last 5
While Garcia’s OBP vs lefties sits at .264, he faces Pablo López, who’s carrying a 4.20 ERA and has allowed 3+ hits in 11 straight starts
Trending Unders
1. 📉 Pittsburgh Pirates UNDER 3.5 Team Runs (-107 Pinnacle)
8/L10 games staying UNDER
Averaging just 2.6 R/G as a team over last 5 games
They’ll face Jack Flaherty, who’s held opponents to 3 runs or fewer in 8 of his last 10 starts
All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.
As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!
— The WagerLens Team