We kept the profit train rolling yesterday and are dialed in heading into the final stretch of July. With the board offering strong trends, favorable matchups, and a mix of high-upside value, today’s plays give us a real shot to stack more green. Let’s stay sharp, keep trusting the data, and close out the month on a winning note.

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Table of Contents

• 📊 WagerLens Performance Review

• 💎 Today’s Featured Props

• MLB Home Run Hitters Edge

• Today's Featured Props Recap

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

Yesterday (07/27): 3-2 (60%; +1.08 Units)

MLB: 158-136 (54%; +21.2 Units)

July ‘25: 29-25 (54%; +2.85 Units)

All-Time: 283-137 (54%; +54.4 Units)

💎 Today’s Featured Props

🎯 Edward Cabrera OVER 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown

Best Price: -125 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 6 SOs

• Last 3-Game Average: 5.67 SO/G

• Last 5-Game Average: 5.8 SO/G

• Season Average: 5.412 SO/G

• Confidence Score: 93

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 3 out of last 3 over

• 5 out of last 5 over

• 10 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Edward Cabrera has been a strikeout machine lately, clearing this line in 10 straight games and averaging 5.8 Ks over his last 5 starts. His recent performance is rock solid, with 6 strikeouts in his last outing and a season average of 5.41 SO/G. With a 93 confidence score behind this play and a matchup that should allow him to keep missing bats, this prop offers strong value at -125. Cabrera’s recent form makes it hard to fade him in this spot.

Risk Factors

• Cardinals low K rate

🎯 George Springer OVER 0.5 Runs Scored

Best Price: -135 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 2 Runs

• Last 3-Game Average: 1.33 R/G

• Last 5-Game Average: 1.6 R/G

• Season Average: 0.646 R/G

• Confidence Score: 92

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 3 out of last 3 over

• 5 out of last 5 over

Key Analysis

George Springer has been crossing the plate with ease lately, scoring in 5 straight games and averaging 1.6 runs per game over his last 5. He’s hitting .317 against right-handed pitching and gets a favorable matchup against Zach Eflin, who’s been getting shelled—posting a 5.78 ERA and allowing 19 earned runs over his last 14 innings. With Springer batting near the top of the order and the Blue Jays offense heating up, he’s in a great spot to score at least once again. Backing this prop at -135 comes with strong value given the 92 confidence score and all the trends pointing up.

Risk Factors

• Will need help from other in the lineup to score without a HR

🎯 Elly De La Cruz OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Best Price: -105 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 4 H/R/RBIs

• Last 3-Game Average: 3.33 H/R/RBIs per game

• Last 5-Game Average: 3 H/R/RBIs per game

• Season Average: 2.467 H/R/RBIs per game

• Confidence Score: 92

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 2 out of last 3 over

• 4 out of last 5 over

• 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Elly De La Cruz continues to be a force at the plate, clearing this line in 8 of his last 10 games and averaging 3 H/R/RBIs over his last 5. He’s been especially dangerous against right-handed pitching, posting a .386 OBP and .543 slugging percentage. He’ll face Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who has allowed 3+ hits in 9 of his last 10 starts and 8 runs (4 ER) over his last 3. With Elly locked in and Yamamoto showing signs of vulnerability, this prop at near-even money offers excellent value backed by a 92 confidence score.

Risk Factors

• Yamamoto low ERA

🎯 Jackson Chourio OVER 1.5 Total Bases

Best Price: +120 on Caesars

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 3 TB

• Last 3-Game Average: 3 TB/G

• Last 5-Game Average: 2.8 TB/G

• Season Average: 1.971 TB/G

• Confidence Score: 91

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 2 out of last 3 over

• 5 out of last 5 over

• 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Jackson Chourio is red-hot and brings serious momentum into this matchup, riding a 19-game hit streak and clearing this total bases line in 5 straight and 8 of his last 10. He’s averaging 2.8 TB over his last 5 games and crushes left-handed pitching with a .591 slugging percentage. He faces Matthew Boyd, who has allowed 4+ hits in 8 of his last 10 starts and is giving up a .642 OPS to right-handed hitters. With Chourio locked in and the plus-money price, this is a high-upside play worth backing.

Risk Factors

• Will need XBH or multi-hit game

🎯 Miami Marlins OVER 3.5 Team Runs

Best Price: -132 on Pinnacle

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 7 Runs

• Last 3-Game Average: 5 R/G

• Last 5-Game Average: 4 R/G

• Season Average: 4.3 R/G

• Confidence Score: 86

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 2 out of last 3 over

• 3 out of last 5 over

• 7 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

The Marlins offense has been clicking lately, averaging 5 runs over their last 3 games and 4 per game over their last 5, with a season average of 4.3 R/G. They've cleared this 3.5 line in 7 of their last 10 and dropped 7 runs in their most recent outing. Tonight, they face Andre Pallante, who enters with a 4.91 ERA and has allowed 5 or more runs in three straight starts. With Miami heating up at the plate and Pallante struggling to keep runs off the board, the over on 3.5 team runs looks like a sharp play despite the moderate juice.

Risk Factors

• Cardinals low bullpen ERA

MLB Home Run Hitters Edge

MLB hitters with higher probability to hit a home run based on season stats, matchups with starting pitchers and other key stats

• Alex Bregman

• Gunnar Henderson

• Jose Ramirez

• Gleyber Torres

Today's Featured Props Recap

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Best Value Plays

1. 🔥 Jackson Chourio OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+120 Caesars)

   • Most consistent trend: 5/5 in L5

   • Averaging 2.8 TB/G over last 5 games

   • He faces Matthew Boyd, who has allowed 4+ hits in 8 of his last 10 starts and is giving up a .642 OPS to right-handed hitters

Trending Overs

1. 📈 Edward Cabrera OVER 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-125 DraftKings)

• Hot streak: 10/10 in L10

• Averaging 5.8 SO/G in L5

• His recent performance is rock solid, with 6 strikeouts in his last outing and a season average of 5.41 SO/G

2. ⚡ George Springer OVER 0.5 Runs Scored (-135 DraftKings)

• 7/L7 games going OVER

• Averaging 1.6 R/G over last 5 games

• He’s hitting .317 against right-handed pitching and gets a favorable matchup against Zach Eflin, who’s been getting shelled—posting a 5.78 ERA and allowing 19 earned runs over his last 14 innings

3. 💥 Elly De La Cruz OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-105 DraftKings)

• 8/L10 games going OVER

• Averaging 3 H/R/RBIs per game over last 5

• He’s been especially dangerous against right-handed pitching, posting a .386 OBP and .543 slugging percentage

4. 🚀 Miami Marlins OVER 3.5 Team Runs (-132 Pinnacle)

• 7/L10 games going OVER

• Averaging 4 R/G over last 5

• Tonight, they face Andre Pallante, who enters with a 4.91 ERA and has allowed 5 or more runs in three straight starts

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!

— The WagerLens Team