Rolling Hot Into the Weekend: Best MLB Bets to Keep It Going

Targeting hot hitters and struggling pitchers in MLB rivalry weekend day 2

Author

Sage Davis
May 17, 2025

We kicked off rivalry weekend with a solid 2-1 day, as both of our pitching picks came out firing. With a full 15-game MLB slate on deck for Day 2, we're locked in and looking to keep the momentum rolling. Let’s ride this wave straight to the bank.

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Table of Contents

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

Yesterday (05/16): 2-1 (67%; +0.7 Units)

MLB: 71-62 (53%; +15.15 Units)

NBA: 115-85 (57.5%; +42.38 Units)

May ‘25: 32-20 (61.5%; +5.64 Units)

All-Time: 196-162 (54.7%; +51.34 Units)

🎯 Alec Bohm OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Best Price: -135 on ESPN Bet

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 2 H/R/RBIs

  • Last 3-Game Average: 2 H/R/RBIs per Game

  • Last 5-Game Average: 2 H/R/RBIs per Game

  • Season Average: 1.732 H/R/RBIs per Game

  • Confidence Score: 92

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 over

  • 4 out of last 5 over

  • 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Alec Bohm’s OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs is in a strong spot today, backed by consistent recent production and a favorable matchup. He’s hit this line in 4 of his last 5 games and 8 of his last 10, with a steady average of 2 H/R/RBIs per game over his last 3 and 5 games. On the season, he’s averaging 1.732, just under the line, but his current form suggests an upward trend. Bohm is hitting .364 in May and has a solid .267 average vs right-handed pitching, giving him an edge against Carmen Mlodzinski, who’s struggled lately—allowing 21 runs on 45 hits over his last 8 starts. Even with limited history (1-for-3 with an RBI) against Mlodzinski, the recent data, matchup, and a 92 confidence score make this a high-value prop worth backing.

Risk Factors

  • Can depend on others in lineup to cash

🎯 Nico Hoerner OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Best Price: -125 on ESPN Bet

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 6 H/R/RBIs

  • Last 3-Game Average: 3.33 H/R/RBIs per Game

  • Last 5-Game Average: 2.8 H/R/RBIs per Game

  • Season Average: 2.122 H/R/RBIs per Game

  • Confidence Score: 85

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 over

  • 4 out of last 5 over

  • 7 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Nico Hoerner’s OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs looks like a solid play, especially given his current form and the matchup. He’s cleared this number in 4 of his last 5 games and 7 of his last 10, with recent averages of 3.33 over his last 3 and 2.8 over his last 5, both well above the line. His season average of 2.122 H/R/RBIs per game shows this level of production isn't a fluke. Hoerner also thrives in key moments, batting .400 with runners in scoring position, which bodes well against Sean Burke, who’s allowed 20 runs on 29 hits and 22 walks over his last 43.1 innings.

Risk Factors

  • First time facing Burke

  • Better stats vs LHP this season

🎯 Sandy Alcantara UNDER 17.5 Outs

Best Price: +115 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 17 outs

  • Last 3-Game Average: 13.33 Outs/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 12.8 Outs/G

  • Season Average: 13.75 Outs/G

  • Confidence Score: 85

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 under

  • 4 out of last 5 under

Key Analysis

Sandy Alcantara’s UNDER 17.5 Outs prop offers solid value at +115, especially considering both recent trends and matchup context. He’s stayed under this number in each of his last 3 starts and 4 of his last 5, averaging just 13.33 outs over his last 3 and 12.8 over his last 5, well below the required 18 to hit the over. His season average sits at 13.75 outs, reinforcing the under lean. The Rays have also contributed to this trend, allowing an average of just 16 outs to opposing starters over their last 10 games. Alcantara’s struggles deep into outings are evident in his inflated ERAs by inning—7.88 in the 1st, 10.80 in the 3rd, and a staggering 15.43 in the 6th.

Risk Factors

  • Rays only averaging 2.16 runs per game in the first 5 innings

🎯 Aaron Judge OVER 1.5 Total Bases

Best Price: -135 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 2 TB

  • Last 3-Game Average: 2.67 TB/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 3.2 TB/G

  • Season Average: 2.977 TB/G

  • Confidence Score: 83

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 over

  • 4 out of last 5 over

Key Analysis

Aaron Judge’s OVER 1.5 Total Bases at -135 is backed by strong recent form and a favorable matchup. He’s cleared this line in 4 of his last 5 games, averaging 3.2 total bases over that stretch, with a season-long average of 2.977 TB/G. Judge has been seeing the ball well, hitting 2.67 TB/G over his last 3, and just posted 2 total bases in his most recent game. He also has a solid track record against today’s starter, Griffin Canning, going 2-for-5 with a home run in limited at-bats. Canning has struggled to limit contact, giving up 37 hits over his last 8 starts, which sets the stage for Judge to do damage.

Risk Factors

  • Will need XBH or multi-hit game

MLB Home Run Hitters Edge

MLB hitters with higher probability to hit a home run based on season stats, matchups with starting pitchers and other key stats (odds from DraftKings)

  • Aaron Judge +160

  • Matt Olson +280

  • Nathaniel Lowe +550

  • Rhys Hoskins +475

  • Ketel Marte +290

  • Cal Raleigh +320

  • Shohei Ohtani +195

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Best Value Plays

  1. 🔥 Sandy Alcantara UNDER 17.5 Outs (+115 DraftKings)

    • Most consistent trend: 6/7 in L7

    • Averaging 12.8 Outs/G over last 5 starts

    • Alcantara’s struggles deep into outings are evident in his inflated ERAs by inning—7.88 in the 1st, 10.80 in the 3rd, and a staggering 15.43 in the 6th

Trending Overs

1. 📈 Alec Bohm OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-135 ESPN Bet)

  • Hot streak: 8/10 in L10

  • Averaging 2 H/R/RBIs per game in L5

  • Carmen Mlodzinski allowed 21 runs on 45 hits over his last 8 starts

2. ⚡ Nico Hoerner OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-125 ESPN Bet)

  • 4/L5 games going OVER

  • Averaging 2.8 H/R/RBIs per game over last 5

  • Batting .400 with runners in scoring position, which bodes well against Sean Burke, who’s allowed 20 runs on 29 hits and 22 walks over his last 43.1 innings

3. 💥 Aaron Judge OVER 1.5 Total Bases (-135 DraftKings)

  • 6/L7 games going OVER

  • Averaging 2.97 TB/G so far this season

  • Canning has struggled to limit contact, giving up 37 hits over his last 8 starts

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!

— The WagerLens Team