Yesterday’s newsletter delivered some sharp reads, and depending on how you played it, there was solid profit to be had. Today, we’re aiming to keep that momentum rolling with another slate full of juicy matchups and clear betting edges. A few teams are in particularly favorable spots, and we’ve got props lined up that offer strong value. Let’s stay locked in, trust the process, and stack some wins heading into the weekend.

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Table of Contents

• 📊 WagerLens Performance Review

• 💎 Today’s Featured Matchups

• MLB Home Run Hitters Edge

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

MLB: 109-102 (52%; +9.62 Units)

June ‘25: 22-19 (54%; +0.477 Units)

All-Time: 234-204 (53%; +43.8 Units)

💎 Today’s Featured Matchups

🎯 Milwaukee Brewers @ Minnesota Twins

Pitching Preview:

Jose Quintana takes the mound for Milwaukee, carrying a 4-2 record and a 3.35 ERA. He’s been reliable all season, pitching 5+ innings in 8 of his 9 starts, and consistently giving the Brewers a chance to win.

Minnesota counters with Simeon Woods Richardson, who enters with a 5.13 ERA and a 2-3 record. He’s recorded exactly 4 strikeouts in each of his last three starts, but has also allowed 6 runs and 8 hits in two of those three outings, raising red flags about his consistency.

Offensive Trends:

The Brewers hold a slight edge in run production, averaging 4.53 R/G compared to 4.27 for the Twins. If Quintana holds the Twins in check early, Milwaukee has the bats to capitalize.

Prop Spotlight:

Simeon Woods Richardson 4+ Strikeouts – He’s hit this number in three straight.

Jose Quintana OVER 15.5 Outs Recorded (+ money) – Consistent innings eater with a high floor.

Byron Buxton OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs – Buxton’s power/speed combo makes him a threat in all phases.

Brewers Moneyline – Slight edge in both pitching and offensive form.

🎯 Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals

Pitching Preview:

The Reds will open with Brent Suter, who owns a 2.91 ERA and a 1-0 record, but isn’t a traditional starter. Expect this to be more of a bullpen game, with limited innings from Suter.

The Cardinals hand the ball to Sonny Gray, who enters with a 7-2 record and a 3.84 ERA. While his production has dipped a bit in his last two outings, he’s pitched 6+ innings in four of his last five starts, showing he can still go deep when needed.

Offensive Trends:

Both teams are evenly matched at the plate — St. Louis averages 4.72 R/G, slightly ahead of Cincinnati’s 4.62 R/G. If the Reds’ bullpen gets stretched early, the Cards could pile on late.

Prop Spotlight:

Nolan Arenado OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs – A steady contributor with multi-category upside.

Sonny Gray OVER 5.5 Strikeouts – Consistent workload makes this a reachable line.

Elly De La Cruz OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs – Electric every night with elite speed and pop.

🎯 Texas Rangers @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Pitching Preview:

The Rangers roll out Kumar Rocker, who’s had a tough stretch. He enters with a 2-4 record and a 7.31 ERA, allowing 40 hits and 23 earned runs over his last 7 starts, despite racking up 27 strikeouts. He’s shown flashes but has struggled with command and hard contact.

On the other side, Mitch Keller has been more consistent than his 1-9 record suggests. He holds a 4.08 ERA and has logged 6+ innings in 8 straight starts, giving the Pirates quality length even in low-scoring games.

Offensive Trends:

Both offenses have been underwhelming. Texas averages 3.63 R/G, while Pittsburgh is at just 3.21 R/G, one of the lowest marks in baseball. In a low-output matchup, Keller’s ability to work deep becomes a key advantage.

Prop Spotlight:

Pirates +1.5 Run Line – In a low-scoring matchup with a strong starter, the run cushion holds value.

Mitch Keller OVER 18.5 Outs Recorded (+ money) - 6+ innings in 8 straight starts

Josh Smith OVER 1.5 Total Bases – Smith’s consistency and matchup upside make this a sneaky good play.

MLB Home Run Hitters Edge

MLB hitters with higher probability to hit a home run based on season stats, matchups with starting pitchers and other key stats (odds from DraftKings)

• Cody Bellinger +350

• Teoscar Hernandez +500

• Riley Greene +360

• Byron Buxton +310

• Andrew Benintendi +600

• Ronald Acuna Jr +295

• Ryan McMahon +320

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!

— The WagerLens Team