We took a 1-2 hit on yesterday’s MLB picks. But hey, that’s just part of the dance. No cold streak's stopping us from digging up today’s best value. In this issue, we’ve got a red-hot Jeremy Peña prop, sneaky single-machine Zach McKinstry, and a few unders that are flying under the radar. Let’s get to it!

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Table of Contents

• 📊 WagerLens Performance Review

• 💎 Today’s Featured Props

• Today's Featured Props Recap

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

Yesterday (06/13): 1-2 (33%; -1.4 Units)

MLB: 100-97 (51%; +6.7 Units)

June ‘25: 13-14 (48%; -2.45 Units)

All-Time: 225-199 (53%; +40.89 Units)

💎 Today’s Featured Props

🎯 Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Best Price: -115 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 7 H/R/RBIs

• Last 3-Game Average: 4.67 H/R/RBIs

• Last 5-Game Average: 3.4 H/R/RBIs

• Season Average: 2.36 H/R/RBIs

• Confidence Score: 96

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 3 out of last 3

• 4 out of last 5

• 9 out of last 10

Key Analysis

Jeremy Peña is locked in at the top of the Astros lineup, slashing .364/.408/.522 since taking over as leadoff on April 27, with 25 RBIs, 6 homers, 11 doubles and 14 steals in 67 games. He has reached the Over 1.5 H/R/RBI mark in nine of his last ten opportunities (90% hit rate per trend card). Over his last five games, he’s had 2,2,0,1,3 total H/R/RBI—totaling eight—the last three being multi-H+R+RBI events. Yesterday, he tallied four hits, two runs and one RBI in the opener vs MIN.

Today he faces MIN’s Joe Ryan (7‑2, 2.96 ERA) at home in hitter‑friendly Daikin Park. The Twins showed early-season vulnerability (10‑3 loss on Friday), and Minnesota’s bullpen has been shaky. Peña leadoff puts him in prime position to rack up H/R/RBI if the Astros jump early.

Risk Factors

Joe Ryan is solid—six quality starts, limiting power and contact—so game could be tighter after Peña’s initial at-bats. Peña went 0-for in one of the past five, showing variance exists. And if the Twins get quick outs and keep Houston’s middle-order from rallying, Peña might not push beyond one H/R/RBI. But odds favor his continued form in a favorable park against a middle-tier opponent.

🎯 Kerry Carpenter Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Best Price: +105 on Caesars

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 1 H/R/RBIs

• Last 3-Game Average: 0.33 H/R/RBIs

• Last 5-Game Average: 0.6 H/R/RBIs

• Season Average: 1.88 H/R/RBIs

• Confidence Score: 89

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 0 out of last 3

• 4 out of last 5

• 9 out of last 10

Key Analysis

Carpenter has gone ice-cold, tallying zero H/R/RBI in his last three games and just one in five. Over his last 10, he’s striking out or grounding out more often than not, with only 7 hits and 5 RBI in that span (.233 average). He’s facing a Reds staff that’s solid (Nick Martinez likely starter), and early returns vs Cincinnati show Carpenter has just a .167 average in small sample vs their pitching. Props look great for the under.

Risk Factors

His season (.264/.775 OPS with 13 HR) indicates upside. if he breaks through early, he can flip this prop fast . And tonight’s park, Comerica vs their mid-tier staff, isn’t hostile. Still, recent trends and matchup lean hard toward the Under.

🎯 Drake Baldwin Under 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Best Price: –155 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 2 H/R/RBIs

• Last 3-Game Average: 0.33 H/R/RBIs

• Last 5-Game Average: 0.6 H/R/RBIs

• Season Average: 1.88 H/R/RBIs

• Confidence Score: 87

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 3 out of last 3

• 5 out of last 5

• 8 out of last 10

Key Analysis

Baldwin has cooled off sharply—just 4 hits and 2 RBI in his last 7 games—and hasn’t exceeded 2 cumulative H/R/RBI since June 5. He’s now alternating with Sean Murphy and lost an at-bat (and opportunity) on Tuesday. Today he's catching at Truist Park, facing a Rockies team with a weak pitching staff but the props line holds firm. With only ~1.6 expected H/R/RBI on average and recent output dipping below that, the Under is trending.

Risk Factors

Baldwin remains a blast tool—.295/.830 OPS with power (7 HR)—so a solo homer or productive AB could bust this quickly. If Tracy Park’s Rockies give up runs early, he might push beyond 2 H/R/RBI. Also, today's Rockies lineup is light but his power upside must be respected.

🎯 Ryan McMahon Over 0.5 Hits

Best Price: –134 on BetRivers

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 3 Hits

• Last 3-Game Average: 2 Hits

• Last 5-Game Average: 1.5 Hits

• Season Average: .78 Hits

• Confidence Score: 86

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 3 out of last 3

• 5 out of last 5

• 7 out of last 7

Key Analysis

McMahon is locked in hot with 10-for-22 (.455) and 3 XBH over his past seven games—just went 3-for-4 with a homer and double yesterday at Atlanta. Today he gets another look vs. Braves in the second game of the series, once again at Truist Park. His current form and confidence match up perfectly with a direct, low-risk Over pick.

Risk Factors

His season average of .225 suggests more regression coming. Braves’ Chase Dollander will start; he’s a young arm but boasts strong strikeout upside. And Atlanta is firmly favored, which could mean limited lineup exposure if the Rockies struggle early. But with McMahon playing every day and ripping lefties and righties alike, the upside to hit early is real.

🎯 Lawrence Butler Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Best Price: –130 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 3 H/R/RBIs

• Last 3-Game Average: .67 H/R/RBIs

• Last 5-Game Average: 1 H/R/RBIs

• Season Average: 2.12 H/R/RBIs

• Confidence Score: 85

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 1 out of last 3

• 2 out of last 5

• 7 out of last 10

Key Analysis

Butler is locked in and running hot, hitting .293 over his past 10 games with 12 hits, 1 HR, 5 RBI, and 11 runs. He already delivered two H+R in his first game of the Royals series. Today he faces Michael Lorenzen at Kauffman, an acceptable Royals arm but not dominant. Butler hit .286 in five career ABs there and has been the A’s most productive bat of late.

Risk Factors

This is a cumulative stat line, meaning Butler needs at least two counting events. His production is streaky, going 0 for 3 in two of the past three. Kansas City's Royals rank average-to-better in run prevention at home, and Lorenzen can punch hitters out at times. Plus, Oakland’s offense overall is cold so Butler may not get support or multiple plate appearances if A’s struggle.

🎯 Zach McKinstry Over 0.5 Singles

Best Price: +105 on FanDuel

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 1 Single

• Last 3-Game Average: 1 Single

• Last 5-Game Average: ~0.8 Singles

• Season Average: 0.61 Singles

• Confidence Score: 85

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 2 out of last 3

• 3 out of last 5

• 7 out of last 10

Key Analysis

McKinstry’s batting .344 with 11 hits in his last 10 games and has recorded a single in each of his past three starts. He already delivered vs. CIN yesterday, getting on base and sparking Detroit’s big inning. Today he bats 8th against Reds’ Nick Martinez (3.70 ERA), a contactable righty. Comerica Park’s spacious field won’t hurt his gap-hitting style—this line looks like a good value play.

Risk Factors

Martinez is known to limit contact with an ERA near 4.00 so runs might be scarce and team offense could stall if pitching settles later. Detroit’s offense looks vulnerable to second-half breathing room; if they go cold, McKinstry could be batting in empty innings. Still, his personal form and consistent usage give the Over edge.

Today's Featured Props Recap

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Best Value Plays

1. 🔥 Jeremy Peña Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (DraftKings –115)

   • Most consistent trend: 9/10 in last 10 games

   • Key stat: .333 avg, .884 OPS, 4-for-5 with 4 hits, 2 runs, 1 RBI yesterday vs Twins

   • Value proposition: Elite speed and infield-hit ability, hitting a ridiculous .316 with infield hits riding hot form into favorable matchup.

Trending Overs

1. 📈 Ryan McMahon Over 0.5 Hits (BetRivers –134)

   • Hot streak: 6/7 games with a hit

   • Averaging ~2.0 H/game in last 3, 1.2 in last 5

   • Key insight: Just went 3-for-4 with homer + double yesterday; season .225 but on a .455 heater past week.

2. ⚡ Zach McKinstry Over 0.5 Singles (FanDuel +105)

   • 5/5 games producing at least one single

   • Statistical support: .320 avg last 7 games, .277 overall

   • Supporting context: Hot .343 June avg, starting every day at Detroit; ideal matchup vs Nick Martinez.

3. 💥 Lawrence Butler Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (DK –130)

   • 7/10 games hitting over

   • Statistical support: .262 avg, 2-for-5 yesterday with run scored

   • Context: A’s energized off Royals starter; Butler’s full-time role and streaky surge give upside.

Trending Unders

1. 📉 Drake Baldwin Under 2.5 H+R+RBI (DK –155)

   • 8/10 staying under

   • Statistical support: ONLY 1 multi-X+R+RBI since June 5; off lineup yesterday

   • Trend: Split starts at catcher and replaced in lineup — limited upside.

2. ⬇️ Kerry Carpenter Under 1.5 H+R+RBI (Caesars +105)

   • 9/10 staying under

   • Statistical support: .264 avg, 0 in last 3 games

   • Insight: Detroit's depth spark overshadowed carb; limited RBI chances vs Reds.

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!

— The WagerLens Team