Saturday Smash: Three Plus-Money Overs You’ll Love

Plus-money overs fueled by scoring and contact

AuthorAuthor

Sage Davis & Brian McAbee
August 30, 2025

Yesterday’s slip could have been rough, but the Rangers/Athletics under saved us from a bigger loss, keeping things steady. Today we’ve got plus-money plays lined up, and with a full slate of MLB, CFB, and the last weekend before the NFL kicks off, it’s the perfect time to stay locked in. Confidence is high, the matchups are sharp, and we’re ready to build momentum heading into September.

Table of Contents

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

Yesterday (08/29): 2-3 (40%; -1.03 Units)

MLB: 206-182 (53%; +18.4 Units)

August ‘25: 47-42 (53%; +0.5 Units)

All-Time: 331-283 (54%; +53.6 Units)

🎯 Bobby Witt Jr. OVER 0.5 Runs Scored

Best Price: +100 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 1 Run Scored

  • Last 3-Game Average: 0.67 R/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 0.6 R/G

  • Season Average: 0.654 R/G

  • Confidence Score: 92

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 over

  • 3 out of last 5 over

  • 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Bobby Witt Jr.’s OVER 0.5 runs scored at +100 on DraftKings offers solid value. He’s scored in 8 of his last 10 games, averaging right around his 0.654 season pace, and carries an .842 OPS vs RHP. He faces Jack Flaherty, who has a 4.87 ERA and has given up 5+ earned runs in 3 of his last 4 starts, creating plenty of chances for Witt to cross the plate. The 92 confidence score makes this a strong spot.

Risk Factors

  • Witt will need to get on base and likely need help from others in the lineup to score

🎯 Pete Alonso OVER 0.5 Runs Scored

Best Price: +105 on BetRivers

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 2 Runs Scored

  • Last 3-Game Average: 1.67 R/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 1.4 R/G

  • Season Average: 0.548 R/G

  • Confidence Score: 92

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 over

  • 5 out of last 5 over

  • 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Pete Alonso’s OVER 0.5 runs scored at +105 on BetRivers comes with solid plus-money value backed by both form and matchup. He’s scored in 8 of his last 10 games, including each of his last five, while averaging 1.67 runs over his last three and 1.4 over his last five. Alonso has been dangerous against right-handed pitching with a .904 OPS vs RHP, and he faces Edward Cabrera, who despite a 3.32 ERA, has given up 11 earned runs over his last three starts. Add in the Mets’ red-hot offense, 23 runs in their last two games against Miami, and Alonso’s chances to cross the plate look strong, reflected in the 92 confidence score.

Risk Factors

  • Alonso will need to get on base and likely need help from others in the lineup to score

  • Cabrera is coming off of a 0 ER, 7 IP outting

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🎯 Bryce Harper OVER 0.5 Singles

Best Price: +120 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 2 Singles

  • Last 3-Game Average: 1.33 1B/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 1.6 1B/G

  • Season Average: 0.561 1B/G

  • Confidence Score: 95

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 over

  • 5 out of last 5 over

  • 9 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Bryce Harper’s OVER 0.5 singles at +120 on DraftKings is a strong plus-money angle given his recent consistency and matchup. He’s picked up singles in 9 of his last 10 games, including each of his last five, and is averaging 1.6 singles over his last five games, well above his 0.561 season average. Harper owns a .350 OBP vs left-handed pitching, and he’s set to face Chris Sale, who is just coming off the IL. While Sale was solid prior to injury, he showed some rust in rehab, allowing 10 hits across three minor-league starts, which could give Harper opportunities to reach base via singles. The 95 confidence score reflects his hot form and favorable spot.

Risk Factors

  • If Sale is sharp out of the gate and limits base traffic, Harper may have fewer chances to cash. Plus, walks and XBH will not cash

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Best Value Plays

  1. 🔥 Bryce Harper OVER 0.5 Singles (+120 DraftKings)

    • Most consistent trend: 9/10 in L10

    • Averaging 1.6 singles per game over last 5

    • Harper owns a .350 OBP vs left-handed pitching, and he’s set to face Chris Sale, who is just coming off the IL. While Sale was solid prior to injury, he showed some rust in rehab, allowing 10 hits across three minor-league starts, which could give Harper opportunities to reach base via singles

Trending Overs

1. 📈 Bobby Witt Jr. OVER 0.5 Runs Scored (+100 DraftKings)

  • Hot streak: 8/10 in L10

  • Averaging 0.6 R/G in L5

  • Facing Jack Flaherty, who has a 4.87 ERA and has given up 5+ earned runs in 3 of his last 4 starts

2. ⚡ Pete Alonso OVER 0.5 Runs Scored (+105 BetRivers)

  • 5/L5 games going OVER

  • Averaging 1.4 R/G over last 5

  • Alonso has been dangerous against right-handed pitching with a .904 OPS vs RHP, and he faces Edward Cabrera, who despite a 3.32 ERA, has given up 11 earned runs over his last three starts

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!

— The WagerLens Team