September Bounce Back Plays

3 Trending MLB Props with Favorable Edges

AuthorAuthor

Sage Davis & Brian McAbee
September 06, 2025

Full transparency, September has started off rough. Wednesday’s 0-4 slate set us back, and the Chiefs’ ugly season opener didn’t do us any favors. That said, today brings an opportunity to bounce back with three strong MLB trends we’re confident in, and tomorrow kicks off the first NFL Sunday of the year. NFL props are already live on WagerLens.com, and NFL trends will follow once we’ve built up data points to work with.

Table of Contents

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

Yesterday (09/05): 1-2 (33%; -1.2 Units)

MLB: 209-190 (52%; +13.44 Units)

September ‘25: 4-9 (31%; -5.02 Units)

Pick of the Day: 1-2 (33%; -1.67 Units)

All-Time: 337-294 (53%; 48.44 Units)

Best Price: -125 on BetMGM

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 5 Hits allowed

  • Last 3-Game Average: 4.67 H/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 5.2 H/G

  • Season Average: 3.929 H/G

  • Confidence Score: 88

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 under

  • 4 out of last 5 under

  • 9 out of last 10 under

Key Analysis

Trevor Rogers’ UNDER 5.5 Hits Allowed sets up as a strong play given both his consistency and the opponent’s current form. Rogers has kept hitters in check all season, allowing fewer than 5.5 hits in 13 of his 14 starts, with a season average of just 3.93 hits allowed per game. His recent stretch has been equally sharp, staying under this mark in 9 of his last 10 outings, including all three of his most recent starts. The Dodgers’ bats have been quieter than usual, averaging just six hits per game over their last three, which plays directly into this under. With Rogers showing both efficiency and command while limiting traffic on the bases, and with the opponent trending slightly below their usual offensive output, the under here has strong backing from both recent performance and season-long trends.

Risk Factors

  • Dodgers offensive potential

🎯 William Contreras OVER 0.5 Runs Scored

Best Price: +115 on BetMGM

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 2 Runs

  • Last 3-Game Average: 1 R/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 1.2 R/G

  • Season Average: 0.61 R/G

  • Confidence Score: 92

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 over

  • 4 out of last 5 over

  • 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

William Contreras’ OVER 0.5 Runs Scored at plus money offers solid value given both his production and the matchup. Contreras has been a steady run contributor, averaging 1.0 run per game over his last three and 1.2 over his last five, well above his season average of 0.61. He’s reached this prop in 8 of his last 10 games, showing consistency at the top of the Brewers’ lineup. His .353 OBP against right-handers sets him up well to get on base against Mitch Keller, who has struggled recently, allowing 20 runs across his last five starts and giving up 15 hits and 7 runs in two outings against Milwaukee this year. With Contreras’ ability to get on base and the Brewers’ offense likely to pressure Keller, the chances of him crossing the plate are strong, making this plus-money play highly appealing.

Risk Factors

  • Contreras will have to get on base and likely need help from others in the lineup to score

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🎯 Emmanuel Rivera OVER 0.5 Singles

Best Price: +100 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 1 single

  • Last 3-Game Average: 1.67 1B/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 1.4 1B/G

  • Season Average: 0.656 1B/G

  • Confidence Score: 83

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 over

  • 5 out of last 5 over

  • 6 out of last 6 over

Key Analysis

Emmanuel Rivera’s OVER 0.5 Singles at even money is backed by both form and matchup. Rivera has been red-hot at the plate, recording at least one single in six straight games and averaging 1.67 singles per game over his last three. Even with the September 5th data gap, he extended the streak with another hit, reinforcing his current consistency. On the season, he sits at 0.656 singles per game, but his recent stretch shows he’s performing well above that baseline. He also carries a solid .319 OBP against right-handers, giving him extra paths to reach base against Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who has allowed 4 or more hits in seven consecutive starts. With Rivera locked in and the opposing pitcher consistently giving up contact, the over here has strong momentum and looks like a high-value spot.

Risk Factors

  • XBH will not cash

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Best Value Plays

  1. 🔥 William Contreras OVER 0.5 Runs Scored (+115 BetMGM)

    • Most consistent trend: 8/10 in L10

    • Averaging 1.2 R/G over last 5 games

    • His .353 OBP against right-handers sets him up well to get on base against Mitch Keller, who has struggled recently, allowing 20 runs across his last five starts and giving up 15 hits and 7 runs in two outings against Milwaukee this year

Trending Overs

1. 📈 Emmanuel Rivera OVER 0.5 Singles (+100 DraftKings)

  • Hot streak: 6/6 in L6

  • Averaging 1.4 1B/G in L5

  • He carries a solid .319 OBP against right-handers, giving him extra paths to reach base against Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who has allowed 4 or more hits in seven consecutive starts

Trending Unders

1. 📉 Trevor Rogers UNDER 5.5 Hits Allowed (-125 BetMGM)

  • 9/L10 games staying UNDER

  • Allowing an average of just 3.929 H/G this season

  • The Dodgers’ bats have been quieter than usual, averaging just six hits per game over their last three, which plays directly into this under

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!

— The WagerLens Team