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Table of Contents

• 📊 WagerLens Performance Review

• 💎 Today’s Featured Props

• MLB Home Run Hitters Edge

• Today's Featured Props Recap

What a bounce-back! After a tough 0-3 outing, we came back strong with a 3-1 day yesterday, showing exactly why sticking to the process pays off. That kind of turnaround is what separates the disciplined bettors from the emotional ones. Now, we’ve got a full slate of MLB day games on deck, and the data is pointing us toward some seriously juicy props. Momentum is on our side, confidence is high, and the board looks promising. Let’s lock in, stay sharp, and go get this money.

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

Yesterday (04/19): 3-1 (75%)

MLB: 24-21 (53%)

April ‘25: 35-28 (56%)

All-Time: 145-120 (55%)

💎 Today’s Featured Props

🎯 Bobby Witt Jr. OVER 0.5 Singles

Best Price: -120 on ESPN Bet

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 1 Single

• Last 3-Game Average: .67 Singles/Game

• Last 5-Game Average: .60 Singles/Game

• Season Batting Average: .310 average

• Confidence Score: 92

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 2 out of last 3 over

• 3 out of last 5 over

• 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Bobby Witt Jr.'s Over 0.5 Singles prop at -120 on ESPN Bet presents a solid value based on both recent form and season-long performance. Witt is hitting .310 on the year, a strong indicator of consistent contact, and he’s recorded at least one single in 8 of his last 10 games. His recent averages—.67 singles per game over the last 3 and .60 over the last 5—support the over as a likely outcome. He also logged a single in his most recent outing, signaling current form is intact. Witt is hitting .500 in 8 at-bats against left-handed pitching this season, and he’ll face southpaw Tarik Skubal today. While Skubal has been sharp overall, he’s allowed 20 hits in 23.2 innings, indicating he’s hittable. Given Witt's strong splits vs. lefties and consistent production, this is a favorable spot to back the over.

Risk Factors

• Witt is very capable of XBH

🎯 Gavin Lux OVER 0.5 Total Bases

Best Price: -130 on ESPN Bet

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 3 TB

• Last 3-Game Average: 2 TB/G

• Last 5-Game Average: 2.4 TB/G

• Season Average: 1.25 TB/G

• Confidence Score: 85

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 3 out of last 3 over

• 5 out of last 5 over

• 7 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Gavin Lux’s Over 0.5 Total Bases prop at -130 on ESPN Bet looks like a strong play given his recent surge and a favorable matchup. Lux has cleared this line in each of his last 5 games, averaging 2.4 total bases over that stretch. His season average sits at 1.25 total bases per game, and he’s coming off a 3-TB performance in his last outing, signaling he's locked in at the plate. Historically, Lux has had success against Charlie Morton, going 2-for-5 (.400) in limited at-bats. Morton, meanwhile, has given up 24 hits in just 18.1 innings through his first 4 starts, indicating he’s been hittable early this season. With Lux seeing the ball well and the matchup working in his favor, the over on 0.5 total bases offers solid value.

Risk Factors

• Morton averaging over 1K/Inning

🎯 Bryson Stott OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Best Price: -140 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 8 H/R/RBIs

• Last 3-Game Average: 4 H/R/RBIs per Game

• Last 5-Game Average: 3.4 H/R/RBIs per Game

• Season Average: 2.22 H/R/RBIs per Game

• Confidence Score: 85

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 3 out of last 3 over

• 5 out of last 5 over

• 7 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Bryson Stott’s Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs prop at -140 on DraftKings offers strong value based on recent production and matchup context. Stott is on a tear, hitting this number in 5 straight games, averaging 4 H/R/RBIs over his last 3 games and 3.4 over his last 5—well above the line. His season average of 2.22 in this combo stat also supports the over. Stott is benefiting from hitting ahead of red-hot bats like Turner, Harper, and Schwarber, boosting his run-scoring upside when he gets on base. He faces Connor Gillispie, who’s struggled early, allowing 19 hits and 14 runs in 19 innings across his first 4 starts. With Stott in great form and the Phillies lineup firing, he’s in an ideal spot to contribute across multiple categories, making the over a smart play.

Risk Factors

• This prop could require contributions beyond just his own bat

🎯 Mitch Garver UNDER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Best Price: -130 on ESPN Bet

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 1 H/R/RBIs

• Last 3-Game Average: .33 H/R/RBIs per Game

• Last 5-Game Average: .2 H/R/RBIs per Game

• Season Batting Average: .125 average

• Confidence Score: 83

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 3 out of last 3 under

• 5 out of last 5 under

Key Analysis

Mitch Garver’s Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs at -130 on ESPN Bet is supported by a clear trend of cold performance and a tough matchup. Garver has gone under this line in 5 straight games, averaging just 0.2 H/R/RBIs over his last 5. His season batting average sits at a rough .125, showing he's struggled to make any consistent offensive impact. He’s also 0-for-2 in his limited history against Easton Lucas, who’s been solid so far—allowing only 8 runs on 10 hits through 15.1 innings. With Garver slumping and facing a pitcher who’s limiting damage well, the under looks like a high-percentage play.

Risk Factors

• .200 average against LHP this season

🎯 Cleveland Guardians Moneyline

Best Price: +100 on BetRivers

Recent Performance

• Last Game: Win

• Last 3-Game Average: 2-1

• Last 5-Game Average: 3-2

• Season Average: 11-9

• Confidence Score: 80

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 2 out of last 3 Won

• 3 out of last 5 Won

• 7 out of last 10 Won

Key Analysis

The Cleveland Guardians Moneyline at +100 on BetRivers looks like a sharp play with momentum, matchup, and value all aligning. The Guardians have won 7 of their last 10, including a shutout victory over top prospect Paul Skenes, showing they can rise to the occasion against strong arms. They’ve gone 2-1 over their last 3 and 3-2 in their last 5, pushing their season record to a respectable 11-9. Today they face Mitch Keller, who’s off to a shaky start—posting a 1-2 record while allowing 11 runs on 23 hits in 23 innings. Add to that a struggling Pirates bullpen, and the Guardians are well-positioned to capitalize. At even money, you're getting a team in better recent form against a hittable starter and a weak relief corps.

Risk Factors

• Streaky Cleveland lineup

• Keller finding his groove

MLB Home Run Hitters Edge

MLB hitters with higher probability to hit a home run based on season stats, matchups with starting pitchers and other key stats (odds from DraftKings)

• Elly De La Cruz +650

• Kyle Manzardo +550

• Austin Riley +390

• Bryce Harper +370

• Spencer Torkleson +650

• Pete Alonso +360

• Jose Altuve +750

Today's Featured Props Recap

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Best Value Plays

1. 🔥 Cleveland Guardians Moneyline (+100 betRivers)

   • Most consistent trend: 2/3 in L3

   • Mitch Keller off to a shaky start—posting a 1-2 record while allowing 11 runs on 23 hits in 23 innings

   • Struggling Pirates bullpen

Trending Overs

1. 📈 Bobby Witt Jr. OVER 0.5 Singles (-120 ESPN Bet)

• Hot streak: 8/10 in L10

• Averaging .67 singles per game over the last 3

• Skubal has allowed 20 hits in 23.2 innings

2. ⚡ Gavin Lux OVER 0.5 Total Bases (-130 ESPN Bet)

• 5/L5 games going OVER

• Averaging 2.4 total bases over last 5 games

• Morton has given up 24 hits in just 18.1 innings through his first 4 starts

3. 💥 Bryson Stott OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-140 DraftKings)

• 5/L5 games going OVER

• Averaging 4 H/R/RBIs over his last 3 games and 3.4 over his last 5

• Connor Gillispie allowed 19 hits and 14 runs in 19 innings across his first 4 starts

Trending Unders

1. 📉 Mitch Garver UNDER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-130 ESPN Bet)

• 7/L7 games staying UNDER

• Averaging just 0.2 H/R/RBIs over his last 5

• Easton Lucas has been solid so far—allowing only 8 runs on 10 hits through 15.1 innings

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!

— The WagerLens Team