Sharp Slates: Targeted MLB Props & Matchup Reads

Hoskins Hot, Tovar Fade, Vientos Value

Author

Sage Davis
May 19, 2025

We went 2-1 yesterday, cashing both MLB picks while falling short on our NBA play thanks to Jamal Murray’s rough Game 7 outing. There’s no NBA action today, but the Conference Finals tip off tomorrow. In the meantime, we’ve got a loaded 12-game MLB slate, and we’ve locked in some of the top prop bets to keep an eye on.

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Table of Contents

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

Yesterday (05/18): 2-1 (67%; +0.60 Units)

MLB: 76-63 (55%; +18.4 Units)

NBA: 115-86 (57%; +41.4 Units)

May ‘25: 37-22 (62.7%; +7.94 Units)

All-Time: 201-164 (55%; +53.6 Units)

🎯 Rhys Hoskins OVER 0.5 Total Bases

Best Price: -140 on ESPN Bet

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 1 TB

  • Last 3-Game Average: .67 TB/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 2 TB/G

  • Season Average: 1.409 TB/G

  • Confidence Score: 89

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 over

  • 3 out of last 5 over

  • 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Rhys Hoskins' Over 0.5 Total Bases prop at -140 on ESPN Bet offers strong value supported by both recent performance and favorable matchup data. He’s cleared this line in 8 of his last 10 games, with a season average of 1.409 TB/G and an impressive 2.0 TB/G over his last 5. While his 3-game average is a bit lower at 0.67 TB/G, he logged 1 total base in his last outing and appears to be trending positively. The matchup against Dean Kremer adds to the appeal—Hoskins is 2-for-3 in his career vs Kremer, including a home run and a staggering 2.334 OPS. Kremer has also been hittable, giving up 53 hits over 9 starts, and Hoskins owns a solid .301 batting average vs right-handed pitching.

Risk Factors

  • 5 game average inflated by 8 TB performance

🎯 Ezequiel Tovar UNDER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Best Price: -105 on BetMGM

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 9 H/R/RBIs

  • Last 3-Game Average: 3.33 H/R/RBIs

  • Last 5-Game Average: 2.2 H/R/RBIs

  • Season Average: 1.778 H/R/RBIs

  • Confidence Score: 84

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 under

  • 4 out of last 5 under

  • 7 out of last 10 under

Key Analysis

Ezequiel Tovar’s Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs prop at -105 on BetMGM offers strong value with a solid 84 Confidence Score backing it. Despite a blowup performance in his last game with 9 combined H/R/RBIs, his recent averages are clearly inflated by that outlier. Over the last 5 games, he’s averaged just 2.2, and in the last 3, that drops to 3.33—but removing the 9-point spike reveals a much more modest recent trend. Importantly, he’s stayed under this line in 7 of his last 10 games, including 4 of the last 5, showing overall consistency with the under. The matchup also favors the under: Tovar has a modest .273 average (11 ABs) against starter Sanchez, but with just 1 RBI and limited damage. Sanchez has been tough on opponents overall, allowing only 14 runs on 36 hits across 8 starts, and Tovar’s struggles against lefties (.188 BA vs LHP) further support the under.

Risk Factors

  • Tovar’s hot last game

🎯 Mark Vientos OVER 0.5 Singles

Best Price: -110 on FanDuel

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 1 1B

  • Last 3-Game Average: .67 1B/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: .80 1B/G

  • Season Average: .605 1B/G

  • Confidence Score: 79

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 over

  • 4 out of last 5 over

  • 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Mark Vientos' Over 0.5 Singles prop at -110 on FanDuel presents solid value, backed by a 79 Confidence Score and strong recent trends. He’s hit this line in 8 of his last 10 games, including 4 of the last 5 and 2 of the last 3, showing consistent ability to notch at least one single. His season average of 0.605 singles per game has climbed recently, with a 3-game average of 0.67 and a 5-game average of 0.80. The matchup further favors the over: Vientos is hitting .296 in May and has a respectable .254 average vs right-handed pitching, which aligns well against Dobbins, who has struggled lately—giving up 32 hits in his last 5 games. Given the recent contact rates and Dobbins' vulnerability, this looks like a well-priced spot to back Vientos to grab at least one single.

Risk Factors

  • XBH won’t cash

MLB Home Run Hitters Edge

MLB hitters with higher probability to hit a home run based on season stats, matchups with starting pitchers and other key stats (odds from DraftKings)

  • Kyle Stowers +600

  • Jake Bauers +500

  • Nick Castellanos +360

  • Matt Chapman +360

  • Brent Rooker +400

  • Freddie Freeman +360

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Best Value Plays

  1. 🔥 Ezequiel Tovar UNDER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-105 BetMGM)

    • Most consistent trend: 4/5 in L5

    • Tovar has struggled against lefties (.188 BA vs LHP)

    • Tovar has a modest .273 average (11 ABs) against starter Sanchez, but with just 1 RBI and limited damage and Sanchez has been tough on opponents overall, allowing only 14 runs on 36 hits across 8 starts

Trending Overs

1. 📈 Rhys Hoskins OVER 0.5 Total Bases (-140 ESPN Bet)

  • Hot streak: 8/10 in L10

  • Averaging 1.4 TB/G in L5

  • Hoskins is 2-for-3 in his career vs Kremer, including a home run and a staggering 2.334 OPS. Kremer has also been hittable, giving up 53 hits over 9 starts, and Hoskins owns a solid .301 batting average vs right-handed pitching

2. ⚡ Mark Vientos OVER 0.5 Singles (-110 FanDuel)

  • 8/L10 games going OVER

  • Vientos has hit 9 singles in his last 10 games

  • Vientos is hitting .296 in May and has a respectable .254 average vs right-handed pitching, which aligns well against Dobbins, who has struggled lately—giving up 32 hits in his last 5 games

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!

— The WagerLens Team