Slim Slate, Strong Edges to Cash

Overs, unders, and moneylines shaping today’s value card

AuthorAuthor

Sage Davis & Brian McAbee
August 28, 2025

Yesterday’s slip wasn’t ideal, finishing 1-2 with 2 DNPs, but we’re not dwelling on it. Today brings a loaded card with 5.4 units of potential profit, and the trends are lining up for a strong bounce-back. Confidence is high, the matchups are clear, and it’s time to lock in, ride along, and cash.

Table of Contents

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

Yesterday (08/27): 1-2 (33%; -1.2 Units)

MLB: 201-176 (53%; +19.8 Units)

August ‘25: 42-36 (54%; +1.9 Units)

All-Time: 326-277 (54%; +55 Units)

🎯 Clay Holmes UNDER 16.5 Outs

Best Price: -125 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 19 Outs

  • Last 3-Game Average: 15 Outs/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 14.2 Outs/G

  • Season Average: 15.856 Outs/G

  • Confidence Score: 97

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 under

  • 4 out of last 5 under

  • 9 out of last 10 under

Key Analysis

Clay Holmes’ UNDER 16.5 outs at -125 on DraftKings is well-supported by trends. He’s averaging 14.2 outs over his last five starts and has stayed under in 9 of his last 10, including both outings vs Miami this season (14 and 16 outs). The Marlins are averaging 7 hits per game over their last three, and Holmes has allowed 25 hits and 12 ER in his last five, making it tough for him to work deep. With traffic likely again, the 97 confidence score points to another under.

Risk Factors

  • Streaky Miami offense could start cold and allow Holmes to go deep

🎯 Jakob Marsee OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Best Price: +100 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 2 H/R/RBIs

  • Last 3-Game Average: 2 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Last 5-Game Average: 2.8 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Season Average: 2.615 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Confidence Score: 92

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 over

  • 4 out of last 5 over

  • 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Jakob Marsee’s OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs at +100 on DraftKings looks like a strong plus-money angle with both recent production and matchup support. He’s cleared this line in 8 of his last 10 games, averaging 2.8 H/R/RBIs over his last five and 2.615 on the season, well above the number. Marsee has been especially tough against right-handed pitching, carrying a .357 batting average and 1.045 OPS vs RHP, which sets him up well here. He faces Clay Holmes, who’s been hittable lately, allowing 25 hits and 12 earned runs over his last five starts, making this a prime spot for Marsee to keep producing. With multiple paths to cash and consistency behind him, the 92 confidence score signals solid value on this over.

Risk Factors

  • If Holmes finds early efficiency and limits base traffic, opportunities could shrink despite Marsee’s good form

Ready to Raise Your Betting Game?

Step up your game at WagerLens.com, where sharp bettors find their edge.

🔥 Unlock killer tools, exclusive data, expert insights, and a winning community.

Join WagerLens now and bet like a pro.

Don’t miss a play. Follow WagerLens on X for daily drops!

🎯 Geraldo Perdomo OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Best Price: -105 on Caesars

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 5 H/R/RBIs

  • Last 3-Game Average: 4 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Last 5-Game Average: 4.2 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Season Average: 2.361 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Confidence Score: 92

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 over

  • 5 out of last 5 over

  • 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Geraldo Perdomo’s OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs at -105 on Caesars looks like a strong value play given both form and matchup. He’s been on fire lately, clearing this number in 8 of his last 10 games, including each of his last five, and averaging 4 H/R/RBIs over his last three and 4.2 over his last five, nearly double his 2.361 season average. He’s handled left-handed pitching well with a .342 batting average and .859 OPS vs LHP, and he draws José Quintana, who has struggled, allowing 23 hits and 9 earned runs over his last five starts. With Perdomo locked in and facing a hittable pitcher, the 92 confidence score reflects a strong edge for him to keep producing.

Risk Factors

  • Perdomo’s recent production has been well above his season average, so if Quintana manages traffic and the Diamondbacks’ offense cools off, he may fall short

🎯 Will Warren OVER 4.5 Hits Allowed

Best Price: -120 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 7 Hits

  • Last 3-Game Average: 5.33 H/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 5 H/G

  • Season Average: 4.667 H/G

  • Confidence Score: 88

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 over

  • 3 out of last 5 over

  • 7 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Will Warren’s OVER 4.5 hits allowed at -120 on DraftKings looks well-positioned with both his profile and the White Sox’s recent hitting trends. He’s averaging 5 hits allowed per game over his last five starts and 5.33 over his last three, both above his 4.67 season average. He’s gone over this number in 7 of his last 10 starts, including a 7-hit outing his last time out. Warren profiles as a contact pitcher, which increases the chances of opponents putting the ball in play and generating hits. That matches poorly with a White Sox lineup that’s been swinging it well, averaging 9 hits per game over their last three. With his tendency to allow steady contact and Chicago’s recent form at the plate, the 88 confidence score reflects solid value on Warren giving up at least five hits.

Risk Factors

  • White Sox’s inconsistency poses a risk, while they’ve hit well recently, they’ve also gone through stretches where the offense disappears

🎯 Jason Alexander UNDER 2.5 Earned Runs

Best Price: -130 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 2 ER

  • Last 3-Game Average: 1.33 ER/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 1.2 ER/G

  • Season Average: 2.083 ER/G

  • Confidence Score: 87

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 under

  • 5 out of last 5 under

  • 8 out of last 10 under

Key Analysis

Jason Alexander’s UNDER 2.5 earned runs at -130 on DraftKings is backed by both recent form and opponent trends. He’s been sharp lately, averaging just 1.2 ER over his last five starts and 1.33 over his last three, well below his 2.08 season average. He’s stayed under this line in 8 of his last 10 outings, including each of his last five, showing consistent control of damage. The matchup adds to the value. Colorado’s offense has been ice cold, scoring only 2 runs per game over their last three and ranking ahead of just the Pirates in runs per game this season. They were also shut out by Houston last night, highlighting their struggles at the plate. With Alexander consistently keeping opponents in check and the Rockies offering little resistance, the 87 confidence score reflects a favorable spot for him to stay under.

Risk Factors

  • If Alexander surrenders a couple of early big hits, the under could be in jeopardy despite Colorado’s overall struggles

🎯 Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline

Best Price: +105 on BetMGM

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: Won

  • Last 3-Game Average: 2-1

  • Last 5-Game Average: 4-1

  • Season Average: 59-75

  • Confidence Score: 88

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 won

  • 4 out of last 5 won

  • 6 out of last 7 won

Key Analysis

The Pirates’ Moneyline at +105 on BetMGM brings solid underdog value given both the pitching matchup and recent form. Pittsburgh has won 4 of their last 5 games and 6 of their last 7, starting to string together some late-season momentum. They’ll send Braxton Ashcraft to the mound, who has been sharp lately, allowing just 7 hits and 2 earned runs across his last three starts, two of which resulted in Pirates wins. On the other side, the Cardinals counter with Miles Mikolas, who has struggled with consistency this year, holding a 6-10 record and a 5.17 ERA. He’s been hittable throughout the season, and with the Pirates’ offense doing just enough to back their pitching, the matchup tilts slightly in Pittsburgh’s favor. With plus money on the hotter team and the more reliable recent starter, the 88 confidence score reflects good value on the Pirates to keep their winning stretch alive.

Risk Factors

  • Pirates MLB lowest R/G average

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Best Value Plays

  1. 🔥 Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline (+105 BetMGM)

    • Most consistent trend: 6/7 in L7

    • Miles Mikolas has struggled with consistency this year, holding a 6-10 record and a 5.17 ERA

    • Braxton Ashcraft has been sharp lately, allowing just 7 hits and 2 earned runs across his last three starts, two of which resulted in Pirates wins

Trending Overs

1. 📈 Jakob Marsee OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+100 DraftKings)

  • Hot streak: 8/10 in L10

  • Averaging 2.8 H/R/RBIs per game in L5

  • Marsee has been especially tough against right-handed pitching, carrying a .357 batting average and 1.045 OPS vs RHP

2. ⚡ Geraldo Perdomo OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-105 Caesars)

  • 5/L5 games going OVER

  • Averaging 4.2 H/R/RBIs per game over last 5

  • Geraldo Perdomo OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

3. 💥 Will Warren OVER 4.5 Hits Allowed (-120 DraftKings)

  • 7/L10 games going OVER

  • Allowing 5 H/G over last 5 starts

  • Warren is a contact pitcher, which plays into a White Sox lineup averaging 9 hits per game over their last three

Trending Unders

1. 📉 Clay Holmes UNDER 16.5 Outs (-125 DraftKings)

  • 9/L10 games staying UNDER

  • Averaging just 14.2 Outs/G over last 5 starts

  • The Marlins are averaging 7 hits per game over their last three, and Holmes has allowed 25 hits and 12 ER in his last five, making it tough for him to work deep

2. ⬇️ Jason Alexander UNDER 2.5 Earned Runs (-130 DraftKings)

  • 5/L5 games staying UNDER

  • Allowing just 1.2 R/G over last 5 starts

  • Colorado’s offense has been ice cold, scoring only 2 runs per game over their last three and ranking ahead of just the Pirates in runs per game this season

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!

— The WagerLens Team