Small Slate, Big Value: Locked-In Props for a Lean MLB Day

Busch and Raleigh raking in June

AuthorAuthor

Sage Davis & Brian McAbee
June 09, 2025

Tough one yesterday with a reverse sweep—never the outcome we’re aiming for. But with a smaller MLB slate on deck today, we’re tightening things up and rolling with just two high-confidence plays. It’s a great spot to reset, refocus, and get back in the green. Let’s bounce back strong!

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Table of Contents

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

Yesterday (06/08): 0-3 (0%; -3.00 Units)

MLB: 97-92 (51%; +9.5 Units)

June ‘25: 10-9 (52.6%; +0.34 Units)

All-Time: 222-193 (53%; +44.7 Units)

🎯 Michael Busch OVER 0.5 Hits

Best Price: -139 on BetRivers

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 1 Hit

  • Last 3-Game Average: .67 H/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: .80 H/G

  • Season Average: .885 H/G

  • Confidence Score: 95

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 over

  • 4 out of last 5 over

  • 9 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Michael Busch’s OVER 0.5 hits prop looks like a strong play given both his recent consistency and favorable matchup metrics. He’s recorded a hit in 9 of his last 10 games, including 4 of his last 5, signaling a reliable floor. His season average sits at .885 hits per game, but what really stands out is his hot start to June, where he's batting .429. Busch is also hitting .296 against right-handed pitching this season, and he faces Zack Wheeler, who has allowed 52 hits over 12 starts—a rate that offers opportunity for contact. Though Busch is just 1-for-3 in his career against Wheeler, the sample is small and outweighed by his current form. With a high confidence score of 95, this prop presents solid value, even at a modest -139 price.

Risk Factors

  • Wheeler very high K rate

🎯 Cal Raleigh OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Best Price: -125 on BetMGM

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 8 H/R/RBIs

  • Last 3-Game Average: 5.33 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Last 5-Game Average: 4 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Season Average: 2.54 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Confidence Score: 85

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 over

  • 4 out of last 5 over

Key Analysis

Cal Raleigh's OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs prop offers solid value at -125, especially considering his recent offensive surge. He exploded for 8 H/R/RBIs in his last game and is averaging 5.33 over his last 3, far exceeding both the prop line and his season average of 2.54. Raleigh has been especially dangerous in June, posting a 1.235 OPS with 9 RBIs already, and he's maintained a 1.048 OPS against right-handed pitchers on the season. He’ll face Merrill Kelly, who has allowed 32 hits and 13 runs over his last 7 starts, making this a favorable matchup for continued production. With 3 straight overs and 4 in his last 5 games, Raleigh’s current form and matchup support an 85 confidence score and make this prop a compelling target for today’s slate.

Risk Factors

  • 0-for-3 career vs Kelly

MLB Home Run Hitters Edge

MLB hitters with higher probability to hit a home run based on season stats, matchups with starting pitchers and other key stats (odds from DraftKings)

  • Shohei Ohtani +180

  • Jose Ramirez +350

  • Austin Riley +310

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Best Value Plays

  1. 🔥 Cal Raleigh OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-125 BetMGM)

    • Most consistent trend: 4/5 in L5

    • Averaging 4 H/R/RBIs per game over last 5

    • Raleigh has been especially dangerous in June, posting a 1.235 OPS with 9 RBIs already, and he's maintained a 1.048 OPS against right-handed pitchers on the season

Trending Overs

1. 📈 Michael Busch OVER 0.5 Hits (-139 BetRivers)

  • Hot streak: 9/10 in L10

  • Averaging 0.8 H/G in L5

  • Busch is also hitting .296 against right-handed pitching this season, and he faces Zack Wheeler, who has allowed 52 hits over 12 starts—a rate that offers opportunity for contact

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!

— The WagerLens Team