Smarter Baseball Betting: MLB Spring Lines + Blog Sneak Peek

Inside: Three MLB plays for 3/15, why run totals are sagging, and a tease of the blog that shows you exactly how sharps slice up baseball lines.

Author

Brian McAbee
May 15, 2025

We’re heating up. After a 4-0 sweep yesterday, we’re now hitting 60% for the month of May. In today’s issue: three MLB plays you need to take advantage of before lines move, why early-season unders are sneaky valuable, and a preview of the blog post breaking down how sharps attack main baseball betting lines when the run environment shifts.

Table of Contents

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

Yesterday (05/14): 4-0 (100%; +4 Units)

MLB: 67-60 (53%; +14 Units)

NBA: 115-85 (57.5%; +42.38 Units)

May ‘25: 28-18 (60%; +4.5 Units)

All-Time: 192-160 (54.5%; +50.19 Units)

⚾ Big Story: Scoring Is Soft — Here’s the Cheat Code

The league’s early-spring run rate is down about 0.2 runs per game vs. the same point last year, and analysts are pointing to the tighter 18-second pitch-clock-with-men-on rule as the main culprit. That means unders, both full game and first-five inning, are showing a little extra shine.

At WagerLens, we’re seeing books are slow to shave totals through this point of the season, so keep hunting. (In the blog we break down why park factors and starter tempo matter even more when the run environment compresses.)

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📊 Three MLB Edges We’re Playing Today (3/15)

Match-up

Angle

Why It Pops

Nationals @ Braves

Braves First 5 -0.5

Rookie A.J. Smith-Shawver (2.76 ERA) faces Trevor Williams (5.88). Atlanta owns a +70 run-differential in the first five innings this year.

Twins @ Orioles

Under 9.5 Runs

Baltimore’s lineup is hitting .127 with RISP over its last 15 games and ranks 28th in starter ERA (5.77).

White Sox @ Reds

Over 9.5 Runs

Great American Ball Park is the No. 1 home-run park and No. 3 run-scoring park per Statcast’s three-year factors.

Risk 1-2 % of bankroll per play. Spring variance still hits like a 2-1 slider in the dirt.

🔍 Angles to Factor Into Your MLB Betting Process (But Not All of Them)

  • Starting Pitchers influence game totals. Starting pitchers are the key defensive piece in any baseball game, so how elite one is definitely gets baked into the books. Keep an eye out for recent outings and even minor injury news to starting pitchers.

  • Park-Factor Cheat Code. Coors still tops MLB with a 116 park factor, while Chase Field sneaks into the top five for long-ball boost after humidor tweaks. Consider wind speed and direction as a major factor when looking at home run lines.

  • Bankroll Armor. Flat 1–2 % units + hard 5 % daily stop-loss beats every “double-after-you-lose” system ever invented (details and math in the post).

These snippets barely scratch the surface. The full guide walks through bullpen stress tracking, advanced park splits, and why fractional-Kelly sizing is the grown-up move once you’ve nailed flat betting.

👉 Want the Whole Playbook?

We kept the heavy lifting in the blog so this email stays bite-sized. Dive into “Baseball Betting 101: How Smart Bettors Find an Edge” for the full breakdown on starters, parks, and bankroll discipline:

As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!

— The WagerLens Team