Spray Chart Syndicate: Where MLB Stats Meet Sharp Bets

Lefty Killers and Contact Machines—MLB Prop Angles You Can Trust

AuthorAuthor

Sage Davis & Brian McAbee
May 31, 2025

After a few swing-and-miss days, we are looking to shift the momentum back in our favor. With a full board of games and several elite pitcher vs. power-hitter matchups, there’s plenty of opportunity to capitalize. The data is lining up, our edges are clear, and today feels like the kind of slate that sets the tone heading into the weekend. Let’s get into it.

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Table of Contents

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

MLB: 85-82 (51%; +8 Units)

May ‘25: 46-41 (53%; -2.5 Units)

All-Time: 210-183 (53%; +43.2 Units)

🎯 Seiya Suzuki OVER 1.5 Total Bases

Best Price: +130 on Pinnacle

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 2 TB

  • Last 3-Game Average: 1.67 TB/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 2.8 TB/G

  • Season Average: 2.283 TB/G

  • Confidence Score: 82

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 over

  • 4 out of last 5 over

  • 7 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Seiya Suzuki’s Over 1.5 Total Bases prop at +130 on Pinnacle offers strong value based on both recent performance and matchup data. Suzuki has cleared this line in 4 of his last 5 games and 7 of his last 10, with a sharp 2.8 total bases per game over his last five outings—well above the 1.5 threshold. His season average of 2.283 TB/G reinforces the consistency behind his production. Against left-handed pitching, Suzuki shines, hitting .353 with a 1.227 OPS, and he owns a .455 batting average vs today's starter, Nick Lodolo, who has allowed 41 hits in his last 40.1 innings. With a strong confidence score of 82, this prop is supported by both trend and matchup, making it a high-upside play at plus money.

Risk Factors

  • Multi-hit game or XBH to cash

🎯 Gunnar Henderson OVER 0.5 Singles

Best Price: -140 on FanDuel

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 1 1B

  • Last 3-Game Average: .33 1B/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: .60 1B/G

  • Season Average: .633 1B/G

  • Confidence Score: 85

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 1 out of last 3 over

  • 3 out of last 5 over

  • 7 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Gunnar Henderson’s Over 0.5 Singles prop at -140 on FanDuel carries strong underlying value despite modest recent output. While he’s hit this mark in 3 of his last 5 games and 7 of his last 10, his last 3-game average sits at just 0.33 singles per game, slightly below his season average of 0.633. However, the matchup provides optimism—Henderson owns a .320 batting average and .392 OBP against right-handed pitching, and he faces Davis Martin, who has surrendered 36 hits over his last 40.1 innings. Backed by a confidence score of 85, this prop leans on a favorable matchup and season-long consistency, making it a solid play despite recent variability.

Risk Factors

  • Davis Martin walked 3 in last outing

🎯 Sal Frelick OVER 0.5 Singles

Best Price: -120 on FanDuel

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 2 1B

  • Last 3-Game Average: 2.33 1B/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 2 1B/G

  • Season Average: .836 1B/G

  • Confidence Score: 85

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 over

  • 5 out of last 5 over

Key Analysis

Sal Frelick’s Over 0.5 Singles prop at -120 on FanDuel is backed by elite recent form and a highly favorable matchup. Frelick has gone over this line in five straight games, averaging 2 singles per game over his last five—more than double the required mark. His season average of 0.836 singles per game underscores consistent contact ability, and his dominance against lefties stands out: a .386 batting average and .453 OBP vs LHP, including 3-for-5 lifetime vs Jesus Luzardo. With Luzardo allowing 9 hits in his last start and 42 over his last 7 outings, Frelick is in an ideal spot to extend his hot streak. The confidence score of 85 only reinforces this as a strong, data-supported play.

Risk Factors

  • XBH wont cash

🎯 Drew Waters OVER 0.5 Hits

Best Price: -120 on ESPN Bet

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 2 hits

  • Last 3-Game Average: 1.33 H/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: .8 H/G

  • Season Average: .952 H/G

  • Confidence Score: 91

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 over

  • 4 out of last 5 over

  • 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Drew Waters’ Over 0.5 Hits prop at -120 on ESPN Bet looks like a strong value play, supported by both recent form and favorable splits. Waters has hit safely in 8 of his last 10 games, including each of his last 3, with a 1.33 hits per game average over the last 3 games. His season average of .952 hits per game shows consistent production when in the lineup. The matchup is encouraging as well—Waters is 3-for-5 in his career vs Tarik Skubal and owns a solid .304 batting average and .333 OBP vs right-handed pitchers. With Skubal allowing 31 hits over his last 7 starts and a confidence score of 91, this prop offers a high probability of cashing at a fair price.

Risk Factors

  • Skubal coming off of complete game shut out performance

MLB Home Run Hitters Edge

MLB hitters with higher probability to hit a home run based on season stats, matchups with starting pitchers and other key stats (odds from DraftKings)

  • Rafael Devers +295

  • Corbin Carroll +300

  • Nolan Arenado +500

  • Salvador Perez +450

  • Francisco Lindor +500

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Best Value Plays

  1. 🔥 Seiya Suzuki OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+130 Pinnacle)

    • Most consistent trend: 4/5 in L5

    • Averaging 2.8 TB/G over last 5

    • Against left-handed pitching, Suzuki shines, hitting .353 with a 1.227 OPS, and he owns a .455 batting average vs today's starter, Nick Lodolo, who has allowed 41 hits in his last 40.1 innings

Trending Overs

1. 📈 Gunnar Henderson OVER 0.5 Singles (-140 FanDuel)

  • Hot streak: 7/10 in L10

  • Averaging .60 1B/G in L5

  • Henderson owns a .320 batting average and .392 OBP against right-handed pitching, and he faces Davis Martin, who has surrendered 36 hits over his last 40.1 innings

2. ⚡ Sal Frelick OVER 0.5 Singles (-120 FanDuel)

  • 5/L5 games going OVER

  • Averaging 2 1B/G over last 5

  • Dominant against lefties with a .386 batting average and .453 OBP vs LHP, including 3-for-5 lifetime vs Jesus Luzardo, who allowed 9 hits in his last start and 42 over his last 7 outings

3. 💥 Drew Waters OVER 0.5 Hits (-120 ESPN Bet)

  • 8/L10 games going OVER

  • Averaging 1.33 H/G over last 3

  • Waters is 3-for-5 in his career vs Tarik Skubal and owns a solid .304 batting average and .333 OBP vs right-handed pitchers with Skubal allowing 31 hits over his last 7 starts

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!

— The WagerLens Team