Stats, Streaks, and Smart Plays: Your MLB Props Blueprint for Tonight

TB, Outs, and Runs Totals to Target

Coming off a perfect 4-0 sweep on moneylines yesterday, we stacked a tidy +2.77 units and kept the bankroll moving in the right direction. The momentum is rolling, and today we’re locking in a trio of high-confidence props backed by strong recent form and favorable matchups. Let’s ride the hot hand and keep the winning streak alive.

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Table of Contents

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

Yesterday (08/05): 4-0 (100%; +2.77 Units)

MLB: 171-149 (53%; +18.35 Units)

August ‘25: 12-9 (57%; +0.41 Units)

All-Time: 296-250 (54%; +53.5 Units)

🎯 Isaac Colins OVER 0.5 Total Bases

Best Price: -140 on Caesars

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 4 TB

  • Last 3-Game Average: 3.33 TB/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 2.6 TB/G

  • Season Average: 1.174 TB/G

  • Confidence Score: 96

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 over

  • 4 out of last 5 over

  • 9 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Isaac Collins has been a consistent source of offensive production lately, making his OVER 0.5 total bases prop appealing at -140 on Caesars. He’s cleared this line in 9 of his last 10 games, including each of his last three, averaging 3.33 total bases over his past three contests and 2.6 over his last five — both well above his 1.174 season average. Collins also boasts a strong .421 OBP against right-handed pitching, and he’ll face Spencer Strider, who has allowed 4.5 hits per game over his last 10 starts, with six of those outings seeing 5+ hits against him. With a 96 confidence score, this matchup sets up favorably for Collins to record at least one total base.

Risk Factors

  • Will need XBH or multi-hit game to cash

🎯 Jeffrey Springs OVER 15.5 Outs

Best Price: -110 on BetRivers

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 18 Outs

  • Last 3-Game Average: 16 Outs/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 17.2 Outs/G

  • Season Average: 16.435 Outs/G

  • Confidence Score: 92

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 over

  • 4 out of last 5 over

  • 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Jeffrey Springs looks well-positioned to clear 15.5 outs today, with BetRivers offering the best price at -110. He’s topped this mark in 4 of his last 5 starts and 8 of his last 10, averaging 17.2 outs over his past five games and 16.435 on the season. Springs is coming off an 18-out performance and has logged at least 16 outs per game over his last three starts. The Nationals’ offense has been underwhelming recently, averaging just 6.33 hits and 4 runs per game over their last three contests. With a 92 confidence score and a soft matchup against a struggling lineup, Springs has a strong chance to work deep enough to hit this over.

Risk Factors

  • Nats offense gets ahead in counts

🎯 Chicago White Sox OVER 2.5 Team Total Runs

Best Price: -122 on Pinnacle

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 3 Runs

  • Last 3-Game Average: 3 R/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 4.8 R/G

  • Season Average: 3.81 R/G

  • Confidence Score: 90

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 over

  • 4 out of last 5 over

  • 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

The White Sox have been finding ways to push runs across lately, making the OVER 2.5 team total runs at -122 on Pinnacle an appealing play. They’ve hit this number in 4 of their last 5 games and 8 of their last 10, averaging 4.8 runs per game over their last five — well above their 3.81 season average. They’ll face George Kirby, who enters with a 4.13 ERA and has surrendered 4+ runs in two of his last four starts. Chicago owns a .301 OBP against right-handed pitching, and with their recent scoring form combined with Kirby’s inconsistencies, the 90 confidence score feels justified for another solid offensive output.

Risk Factors

  • Kirby just 2 runs allowed over last 12 IP

MLB Home Run Hitters Edge

MLB hitters with higher probability to hit a home run based on season stats, matchups with starting pitchers and other key stats (odds from DraftKings)

  • Riley Greene

  • Willy Adames

  • Bo Bichette

  • Kyle Stowers

  • Blaze Alexander

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Best Value Plays

  1. 🔥 Jeffrey Springs OVER 15.5 Outs (-110 BetRivers)

    • Most consistent trend: 8/10 in L10

    • Averaging 17.2 Outs/G over last 5

    • The Nationals’ offense has been underwhelming recently, averaging just 6.33 hits and 4 runs per game over their last three contests

Trending Overs

1. 📈 Isaac Colins OVER 0.5 Total Bases (-140 Caesars)

  • Hot streak: 9/10 in L10

  • Averaging 2.6 TB/G in L5

  • Collins also boasts a strong .421 OBP against right-handed pitching, and he’ll face Spencer Strider, who has allowed 4.5 hits per game over his last 10 starts, with six of those outings seeing 5+ hits against him

2. ⚡ Chicago White Sox OVER 2.5 Team Total Runs (-122 Pinancle)

  • 8/L10 games going OVER

  • Averaging 4.8 R/G over last 5

  • They’ll face George Kirby, who enters with a 4.13 ERA and has surrendered 4+ runs in two of his last four starts

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!

— The WagerLens Team