Our first early Sunday morning matchup kicks off the NFL’s international series, and we’ve got a set of trending props backed by both matchup data and recent form. These plays line up well with how the game should flow, giving us clear edges to target. And this is just the start, stay tuned for tomorrow’s newsletter, where we’ll break down the best props across the full Sunday slate.

Table of Contents

• 💎 Today’s Featured Props

• Ready to Raise Your Betting Game?

• Today's Featured Props Recap

💎 Today’s Featured Props

🎯 Jalen Nailor OVER 17.5 Receiving Yards

Best Price: -115 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 37 Yds

• Last 3-Game Average: 32 Yds/G

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 3 out of last 3 over

Key Analysis

Nailor has quietly carved out a role in Minnesota’s passing game, clearing this number in three straight while averaging 32 yards per outing. He’s seeing steady involvement with over four targets and 2–3 catches per game, and his 13.7 yards per reception means he doesn’t need heavy volume to cash this line. The matchup also sets up well, Pittsburgh has allowed the 7th-most passing yards in the league so far, and with Carson Wentz stepping in at QB for the injured J.J. McCarthy, Nailor should still get enough looks to hit this modest number.

Risk Factors

• Vikings rely heavily on the run game and Nailor does not get many looks

🎯 Jonnu Smith UNDER 29.5 Receiving Yards

Best Price: -110 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 23 Yds

• Last 3-Game Average: 21.7 Yds/G

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 3 out of last 3 under

Key Analysis

Smith has stayed under this number in three straight, averaging just 21.7 yards over that stretch and only 5.4 yards per catch on the season. His role has been limited to short-area targets, making it difficult to rack up yards without significant volume. The matchup adds more downside, Minnesota has been one of the league’s stingiest secondaries, allowing the 3rd-fewest passing yards per game. With low efficiency and a tough defensive opponent, the under is the sharper angle here.

Risk Factors

• With such a low line, one big play could put this prop at risk

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🎯 Jaylen Warren UNDER 57.5 Rushing Yards

Best Price: -115 on Pinnacle

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 47 Yds

• Last 3-Game Average: 44 Yds/G

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 3 out of last 3 under

Key Analysis

Warren hasn’t cleared this number all season, and the trends suggest that continues. He’s averaging just 44 rushing yards over his last three games and managed only 47 in his most recent outing. Already in a timeshare with Kenneth Gainwell, Warren’s rushing volume is capped, and his ankle injury, limiting him in practice, adds another layer of concern. Interestingly, he leads the team in receiving yards, underscoring that his production is coming more through the air than on the ground. With his current usage profile, this rushing line looks inflated.

Risk Factors

• Warren sees extra carries for clock management

• Vikings have allowed as long as a 16 yard rush on a single play

🎯 Minnesota Vikings -1.5

Best Price: -120 on Pinnacle

Recent Performance

• Last Game: Vikings -38

• Last 3-Game Average: Vikings 2-1 ATS (Steelers 1-2 ATS)

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 2 out of last 3 covered

Key Analysis

The Vikings come in as short favorites, and recent trends suggest they’re in a strong spot to cover. Minnesota has gone 2-1 ATS in their last three, while Pittsburgh has stumbled at 1-2 over that stretch. The Vikings have been reliable in international games, holding a perfect 4-0 record since 2013, and they’ve outscored opponents 97-40 this season compared to the Steelers’ who have been outscored 72-77 so far this season. Coming off a dominant win last week, Minnesota has the offensive edge to handle this number.

Risk Factors

• Aaron Rodgers has the ability to make plays and make come backs

Think line movement doesn’t matter? Think again.

Price shifts are where the market shows its hand. Knowing how to read them can be the edge between cashing and chasing.

Today's Featured Props Recap

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Best Value Plays

1. 🔥 Jonnu Smith UNDER 29.5 Receiving Yards (-110 DraftKings)

   • Most consistent trend: 3/3 in L3

   • Averaging just 21.7 Yds/G over first 3 games

   • Minnesota has been one of the league’s stingiest secondaries, allowing the 3rd-fewest passing yards per game

Trending Overs

1. 📈 Jalen Nailor OVER 17.5 Receiving Yards (-115 DraftKings)

• Hot streak: 3/3 in L3

• Averaging 32 Yds/G in L3

• He’s seeing steady involvement with over four targets and 2–3 catches per game, and his 13.7 yards per reception means he doesn’t need heavy volume to cash this line

Trending Unders

1. 📉 Jaylen Warren UNDER 57.5 Rushing Yards (-115 Pinnacle)

• 3/L3 games staying UNDER

• Averaging just 44 Yds/G over the first 3 games

• Interestingly, he leads the team in receiving yards, underscoring that his production is coming more through the air than on the ground

Watch List

1. ⚠️ Minnesota Vikings -1.5 (-120 Pinnacle)

• Strong trend but we have seen different forms of Aaron Rodgers over the first few games this season and if he plays like he did against the Jets, this game could look much different

• Vikings outscoring opponents 97–40 this season compared to the Steelers’ who have been outscored 72-77 so far this season

• Carson Wentz under center with JJ McCarthy still out with an ankle injury

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!

— The WagerLens Team