Went 1-2 yesterday, with Abrams and Goldschmidt falling short of their line. Nothing wrong with a slight regression after the heater we’ve been on. Full slate of MLB day games today — we’re locked in and ready to bounce back.

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Table of Contents

• 📊 WagerLens Performance Review

• 💎 Today’s Featured Props

• MLB Home Run Hitters Edge

• Today's Featured Props Recap

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

Yesterday (05/10): 1-2 (33%; -1.2 Units)

MLB: 57-56 (50%; +9.52 Units)

NBA: 115-85 (57.5%; +42.38 Units)

May ‘25: 18-14 (56%; +0.014 Units)

All-Time: 182-156 (54%; +45.7 Units)

💎 Today’s Featured Props

🎯 Harrison Bader OVER 0.5 Hits

Best Price: -150 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 1 Hit

• Last 3-Game Average: .67 H/G

• Last 5-Game Average: .8 H/G

• Season Average: .806 H/G

• Confidence Score: 95

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 2 out of last 3 over

• 4 out of last 5 over

• 9 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Harrison Bader’s hit prop at Over 0.5 hits (-150 on DraftKings) is well-supported by both recent trends and favorable matchup data. He’s recorded a hit in 9 of his last 10 games, including 4 of his last 5 and 2 of his last 3, showing consistent production at the plate. His season average sits at 0.806 hits per game, and he's been even hotter recently, hitting .455 so far in May. Bader also excels in today’s specific splits — he’s batting .297 against right-handed pitchers and .310 at home. He’ll face Landen Roupp, who has allowed 40 hits over his last 7 starts, presenting a soft matchup.

Risk Factors

• Bader 0-1 career vs Roupp

🎯 Keibert Ruiz OVER 0.5 Singles

Best Price: -135 on FanDuel

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 1 1B

• Last 3-Game Average: .67 1B/G

• Last 5-Game Average: 1 1B/G

• Season Average: .886 1B/G

• Confidence Score: 92

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 2 out of last 3 over

• 4 out of last 5 over

• 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Keibert Ruiz’s singles prop at Over 0.5 (-135 on FanDuel) is backed by solid consistency and a favorable pitching matchup. He’s hit this line in 8 of his last 10 games, including 4 of his last 5 and 2 of his last 3. His season average of 0.886 singles per game reflects steady contact hitting, and he’s averaged 1 single per game over his last 5. Ruiz has been especially effective against right-handed pitching, posting a .299 batting average and a .352 OBP in those matchups. He’ll face Miles Mikolas, who’s allowed 34 hits over his last 7 starts, offering a decent chance for Ruiz to reach base via single once again. With form, splits, and matchup all pointing in the right direction, this prop presents strong value.

Risk Factors

• XBH will not cash

🎯 Andrew Vaughn OVER 1.5 Total Bases

Best Price: +140 on BetRivers

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 4 TB

• Last 3-Game Average: 3.33 TB/G

• Last 5-Game Average: 2.4 TB/G

• Season Average: 1.289 TB/G

• Confidence Score: 86

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 3 out of last 3 over

• 4 out of last 5 over

Key Analysis

Andrew Vaughn’s Over 1.5 Total Bases prop (+140 on BetRivers) offers solid upside given his recent surge and the plus-money value. Vaughn has cleared this line in each of his last three games, averaging 3.33 total bases over that span and 2.4 over his last five — both well above his season average of 1.289 TB/G. He’s 1-for-2 in his career against Sandy Alcantara, with that lone hit being a home run, and he’s heating up in May with a .803 OPS. Alcantara has given up 32 hits over his last 7 starts, suggesting some vulnerability. While Vaughn's season-long OPS vs righties sits at a low .565, his recent form and past success against the pitcher make this a calculated risk with strong momentum and enticing plus odds.

Risk Factors

• Needs a multi-hit game or XBH

🎯 Reese Olson OVER 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown

Best Price: -148 on FanDuel

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 8 Ks

• Last 3-Game Average: 7.33 K/G

• Last 5-Game Average: 6 K/G

• Season Average: 5.714 K/G

• Confidence Score: 81

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 3 out of last 3 over

• 4 out of last 5 over

Key Analysis

Reese Olson’s strikeout prop set at Over 4.5 (-148 on FanDuel) looks strong given both recent performance and opponent trends. Olson has cleared this number in three straight starts, averaging 7.33 strikeouts over his last 3 games and 6 over his last 5 — both comfortably above the required five. His season average sits at 5.714 K/G, showing consistency over time. He faces a Rangers lineup that struck out 9 times in their last game and averages 8.45 Ks per game on the road, suggesting a good matchup for swing-and-miss potential. With momentum on his side and a favorable opponent, Olson is well-positioned to notch at least five punchouts again.

Risk Factors

• Rangers K at a rate of 7.83 K/G

🎯 Miles Mikolas OVER 1.5 Walks

Best Price: +105 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 3 BB

• Last 3-Game Average: 1.67 BB/G

• Last 5-Game Average: 1.8 BB/G

• Season Average: 1.714 BB/G

• Confidence Score: 77

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 2 out of last 3 over

• 4 out of last 5 over

Key Analysis

Miles Mikolas Over 1.5 Walks (+105 on DraftKings) offers solid value based on both recent trends and opponent discipline. Mikolas has gone over this number in 4 of his last 5 starts, including 2 of his last 3, and is averaging 1.8 walks over his last 5 games — slightly above his season mark of 1.714 BB/G. In his most recent outing, he issued 3 free passes, suggesting some ongoing control issues. He’ll face a Nationals team that averages 3.08 walks per game, showing decent plate discipline. With plus money on a prop that’s hit consistently of late, this looks like a sneaky-good spot to back Mikolas to walk at least two.

Risk Factors

• Recent outing without walking any batters

MLB Home Run Hitters Edge

MLB hitters with higher probability to hit a home run based on season stats, matchups with starting pitchers and other key stats (odds from DraftKings)

• Paul Goldschmidt +500

• Salvador Perez +400

• Josh Bell +550

• Francisco Lindor +390

• Kyle Tucker +370

• Tyler O’Neill +230

• Freddie Freeman +450

Today's Featured Props Recap

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Best Value Plays

1. 🔥 Andrew Vaughn OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+140 BetRivers)

   • Most consistent trend: 4/5 in L5

   • Averaging 2.4 TB/G over last 5

   • He’s 1-for-2 in his career against Sandy Alcantara, with that lone hit being a home run, and he’s heating up in May with a .803 OPS. Alcantara has given up 32 hits over his last 7 starts

Trending Overs

1. 📈 Harrison Bader OVER 0.5 Hits (-150 DraftKings)

• Hot streak: 9/10 inL10

• Averaging .8 H/G in L5

• Bader excels in today’s specific splits — he’s batting .297 against right-handed pitchers and .310 at home. He’ll face Landen Roupp, who has allowed 40 hits over his last 7 starts, presenting a soft matchup

2. ⚡ Keibert Ruiz OVER 0.5 Singles (-135 FanDuel)

• 4/L5 games going OVER

• Averaging 1 single per game over last 5 games

• Facing Miles Mikolas, who’s allowed 34 hits over his last 7 starts

3. 💥 Reese Olson OVER 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-148 FanDuel)

• 4/L5 games going OVER

• Averaging 6 K/G over last 5

• Rangers lineup struck out 9 times in their last game and averages 8.45 Ks per game on the road

4. 🚀 Miles Mikolas OVER 1.5 Walks (+105 DraftKings)

• 4/L5 games going OVER

• Averaging 1.8 BB/G over last 5

• Facing a Nationals team that averages 3.08 walks per game, showing decent plate discipline

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!

— The WagerLens Team