Swing for the Profits: Daily MLB Props Backed by Stats That Matter

Sharp Analysis. Simple Execution. Daily Value.

Author

Sage Davis
April 14, 2025

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Table of Contents

New week, same goal — staying in the green. We wrapped up last week on a high note and we’re looking to keep that momentum rolling. The NBA Playoffs tip off tomorrow with the Play-In games, and we’ve got wall-to-wall MLB and NBA action lined up all week long.

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

Yesterday (04/13): 2-2 (50%)

MLB: 14-12 (54%)

NBA: 110-84 (57%)

April ‘25: 24-19 (56%)

All-Time: 134-111 (55%)

🎯 Matt Chapman UNDER 1.5 Total Bases

Best Price: -130 on ESPN Bet

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 0 TB

  • Last 3-Game Average: 0 TB/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 0 TB/G

  • Season Batting Average: .176 average

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 under

  • 5 out of last 5 under

  • 8 out of last 10 under

Key Analysis

Matt Chapman’s recent struggles at the plate make the under on 1.5 total bases an appealing play. He’s hit this mark in 0 of his last 5 games, and he’s averaging 0 total bases per game over his last three and five outings. On the season, he’s batting just .176, which underscores his cold start. The matchup doesn’t help his case either — Chapman is 0-for-8 in his career against Taijuan Walker, offering no historical edge. With this level of sustained underperformance and a tough individual matchup, backing the under.

Risk Factors

  • Walker has allowed 8 hits over 10.2 innings

🎯 Trevor Larnach UNDER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Best Price: -135 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 0 H/R/RBIs

  • Last 3-Game Average: 1 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Last 5-Game Average: 0.8 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Season Batting Average: .189 average

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 under

  • 4 out of last 5 under

  • 6 out of last 10 under

Key Analysis

Trevor Larnach has struggled to produce consistently, making the under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs a strong option at -135 on DraftKings. He’s hitting just .189 on the season and averaging 0.8 H/R/RBIs over his last five games, with the under hitting in four of those five. He’s also batting just .154 with runners in scoring position, which limits his upside in high-leverage spots. To make matters tougher, he faces Clay Holmes, who’s been dominant early with 20 strikeouts in just 14.2 innings. With a cold bat and a tough pitching matchup, the under looks like the sharp side here.

Risk Factors

  • Clay Holmes has allowed 16 hits, 7 ER this season

🎯 San Diego Padres Moneyline

Best Price: -146 on Pinnacle

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: Won

  • Last 3-Game Average: 3-0

  • Last 5-Game Average: 4-1

  • Season Average: 13-3

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 won

  • 4 out of last 5 won

  • 7 out of last 10 won

Key Analysis

The San Diego Padres Moneyline at -146 on Pinnacle offers strong value given their dominant form and favorable matchup. The Padres are a scorching 13-3 on the season, including a perfect 10-0 at home, where they’ve held opponents to just 2.7 runs per game. They’ve won 4 of their last 5 games and are currently riding a 3-game win streak. On the flip side, Cubs starter Jameson Taillon has struggled out of the gate, allowing 18 hits and 11 earned runs over just 16.1 innings. Combine that with the Cubs’ weaker pitching (allowing 4.1 runs per game) and the Padres’ home dominance, and this sets up as a strong spot to back San Diego to stay hot.

Risk Factors

  • High ERA for Cease

MLB Home Run Hitters Edge

MLB hitters with higher probability to hit a home run based on season stats, matchups with starting pitchers and other key stats (odds from DraftKings)

  • Paul Goldschmidt +500

  • Teoscar Hernandez +450

  • Mookie Betts +550

  • Michael Busch +550

  • Bobby Witt Jr. +330

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Best Value Plays

  1. 🔥 Matt Chapman UNDER 1.5 Total Bases (-130 ESPN Bet)

    • Most consistent trend: 5/5 in L5

    • 0 total bases in 5 straight games

    • Chapman is 0-for-8 in his career against Taijuan Walker, offering no historical edge

Trending Unders

1. 📉 Trevor Larnach UNDER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-135 DraftKings)

  • 4/L5 games staying UNDER

  • Hitting just .189 on the season and averaging 0.8 H/R/RBIs per game over his last five games

  • Batting just .154 with runners in scoring position which limits RBI opportunity

Moneylines

1. 💰 San Diego Padres Moneyline (-146 Pinnacle)

  • Strong trend but Cease on the mound has not been in his best form

  • Padres are 10-0 at home this season and allow just 2.7 runs per game, Cubs allow 4.7 runs per game to opponents

  • Padres need to keep their bats hot and Cease needs to keep runners of the bases

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!

— The WagerLens Team