We’ve started to regress toward the mean, which is a natural part of the sports betting journey — everyone hits a rough patch now and then. Yesterday’s 1-3 record reminds us that even the best bettors face challenges, but it’s all part of the process. The good news? Today’s slate is packed with some strong, promising matchups that give us plenty of reasons to be optimistic. We’re focused, prepared, and ready to bounce back with confidence. Let’s dive in and get back to winning — the momentum is ours to reclaim!

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Table of Contents

• 📊 WagerLens Performance Review

• 💎 Today’s Featured Props

• MLB Home Run Hitters Edge

• Today's Featured Props Recap

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

Yesterday (05/23): 1-3 (25%; -2.23 units)

MLB: 81-73 (53%; +12.58 units)

May ‘25: 42-32 (57%; +2.1 units)

All-Time: 206-174 (54%; +47.8 units)

💎 Today’s Featured Props

🎯 Nico Hoerner OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Best Price: -135 on ESPN Bet

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 5 H/R/RBIs

• Last 3-Game Average: 3 H/R/RBIs per game

• Last 5-Game Average: 3.4 H/R/RBIs per game

• Season Average: 2.319 H/R/RBIs per game

• Confidence Score: 89

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 2 out of last 3 over

• 4 out of last 5 over

• 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Nico Hoerner's OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs prop at -135 on ESPN Bet offers strong value given his recent form and matchup. He has exceeded this line in 8 of his last 10 games, including 4 of the last 5 and 2 of the last 3, averaging 3.4 H/R/RBIs over his last five—well above his season average of 2.319. Hoerner is coming off a 5 H/R/RBI performance and has shown consistent production lately. The matchup is also favorable: he owns a .368 batting average against lefties and hits .434 with runners in scoring position. Against Reds starter Andrew Abbott, he's 2-for-5 in his career, and Abbott has been hittable recently, allowing 24 hits, 7 runs, and 15 walks over his last seven starts. With a confidence score of 89, all signs point toward Hoerner continuing his productive stretch and clearing this modest line.

Risk Factors

• Abbott high K rate

🎯 Rhys Hoskins OVER 0.5 Hits

Best Price: -130 on FanDuel

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 2 Hits

• Last 3-Game Average: 1.33 H/G

• Last 5-Game Average: 1.4 H/G

• Season Average: .959 H/G

• Confidence Score: 73

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 2 out of last 3 over

• 4 out of last 5 over

Key Analysis

Rhys Hoskins’ OVER 0.5 Hits prop at -130 on FanDuel looks like a solid value play given both recent form and a highly favorable matchup. He’s hit this mark in 4 of his last 5 games and is averaging 1.4 hits over his last five, well above his season average of 0.959. He’s also coming off a 2-hit game and has posted a strong .319 batting average in May. Most notably, Hoskins is 6-for-9 lifetime against Mitch Keller, who has allowed 42 hits over his last 7 starts. With a .309 average against right-handers and a 73 confidence score, the data suggests this is a spot where Hoskins is well-positioned to pick up at least one hit.

Risk Factors

• Keller has a higher than average walk rate

🎯 Josh Rojas UNDER 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Best Price: -105 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 2 H/R/RBIs

• Last 3-Game Average: .67 H/R/RBIs per game

• Last 5-Game Average: .4 H/R/RBIs per game

• Season Average: .75 H/R/RBIs per game

• Confidence Score: 89

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 2 out of last 3 under

• 4 out of last 5 under

• 8 out of last 10under

Key Analysis

Josh Rojas’ UNDER 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs at -105 on DraftKings presents strong value backed by a compelling mix of recent trends and poor matchup metrics. He’s hit the under in 8 of his last 10 games, including 4 of the last 5, and is averaging just 0.4 H/R/RBIs over his last five games—nearly half his already low season average of 0.75. While he did post a 2 H/R/RBI performance last game, that appears to be an outlier. Rojas is 0-for-3 in his career vs Mark Leiter Jr., and his splits are discouraging: just a .154 average vs righties and an abysmal .091 with runners in scoring position. Even though Leiter has allowed 24 hits and 17 runs over his last 7 starts, Rojas' cold bat and poor situational hitting suggest he's unlikely to take advantage. With a confidence score of 89, the under is a sharp lean here.

Risk Factors

• Finding a gap

• Getting walked then scoring

🎯 Spencer Steer OVER 0.5 Singles

Best Price: +115 on ESPN Bet

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 2 1B

• Last 3-Game Average: 1.33 1B/G

• Last 5-Game Average: 1.2 1B/G

• Season Average: .556 1B/G

• Confidence Score: 86

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 3 out of last 3 over

• 5 out of last 5 over

Key Analysis

Spencer Steer’s OVER 0.5 Singles at +115 on ESPN Bet offers strong value with plus odds, especially given his recent surge and favorable matchup. He’s recorded a single in five straight games, averaging 1.2 singles per game over his last five—more than double his season average of 0.556. In his last three games alone, he’s averaging 1.33 singles per game, including a 2-single outing most recently. Steer has also had success against Colin Rea, hitting .417 with a 1.129 OPS in the matchup. Rea has allowed 34 hits over his last seven starts, giving Steer ample opportunity to extend his hot streak. With a confidence score of 86, this prop stands out as a high-upside play with great value.

Risk Factors

• XBH wont cash

MLB Home Run Hitters Edge

MLB hitters with higher probability to hit a home run based on season stats, matchups with starting pitchers and other key stats (odds from DraftKings)

• Trent Grisham +475

• Rafael Devers (Game 1) +360

• William Contreras +500

• Jonathan Aranda +450

• Freddie Freeman +650

Today's Featured Props Recap

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Best Value Plays

1. 🔥 Spencer Steer OVER 0.5 Singles (+115 ESPN Bet)

   • Most consistent trend: 6/7 in L7

   • Averaging 1.2 singles per game in last 5

   • Steer has had success against Colin Rea, hitting .417 with a 1.129 OPS in the matchup and Rea has allowed 34 hits over his last seven starts

Trending Overs

1. 📈 Nico Hoerner OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-135 ESPN Bet)

• Hot streak: 8/10 in L10

• Averaging 3.4 H/R/RBIs per game in L5

• Against Reds starter Andrew Abbott, he's 2-for-5 in his career, and Abbott has been hittable recently, allowing 24 hits, 7 runs, and 15 walks over his last seven starts

2. ⚡ Rhys Hoskins OVER 0.5 Hits (-130 FanDuel)

• 6/L7 games going OVER

• Averaging 1.4 H/G in last 5

• Hoskins is 6-for-9 lifetime against Mitch Keller, who has allowed 42 hits over his last 7 starts

Trending Unders

1. 📉 Josh Rojas UNDER 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-105 DraftKings)

• 8/L10 games staying UNDER

• Averaging just .4 H/R/RBIs per game over last 5

• Rojas is 0-for-3 in his career vs Mark Leiter Jr., and his splits are discouraging: just a .154 average vs righties and an abysmal .091 with runners in scoring position

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!

— The WagerLens Team