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Taking Overs on Day Games (4/10)
Sharp Analysis. Simple Execution. Daily Value.
Samuel Garmoe
April 10, 2025
Table of Contents
Another strong day in the books! We went 3-1 on picks yesterday, plagued only by a surprisingly dull Cardinals v Pirates matchup. Usually 13 innings means the leadoff batter produced along the way, but you can’t win them all. The day gave a clear victory nonetheless. Baseball tends to warm up slowly, and now we’re seeing our analysis take shape as season trends begin to surface. Not a lot of games on the slate for MLB and NBA today, but always a chance to make a few bucks.
📊 WagerLens Performance Review
Yesterday (4/9): 3-1 (75%)
NBA: 108-82 (56.8%)
MLB: 10-9 (53%)
Apr ‘25: 18-14 (56.3%)
All-Time: 128-106 (54.7%)
💎 Today’s Featured Props
🎯 Brice Turang OVER 0.5 Runs
Best Price: -129 on BetRivers
Recent Performance
Last Game: 3 runs
Last 3-Game Average: 2 runs/game
Last 5-Game Average: 1.6 runs/game
Season Average: 1.2 runs/game
How Has This Prop Performed?
3 out of last 3 over
5 out of last 5 over
8 out of last 10 over
Key Analysis
The Brewers are playing in Colorado this week, making their offensive overs an immediate target. Everything lines up for this matchup - Milwaukee is scoring, Colorado’s starter is uninspiring, Turang is playing well, and the game will take place in that wonderful thin Colorado air. Look for the Brewers’ guys to hit around again today.
Risk Factors
Runs scored relies on other team members to also perform
🎯 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. OVER 1.5 Total Bases
Best Price: -109 on Pinnacle
Recent Performance
Last Game: 3 TB
Last 3-Game Average: 1.67 TB
Last 5-Game Average: 1.4 TB
Season Average: 1.4 TB
How Has This Prop Performed?
2 out of last 3 over
3 out of last 5 over
6 out of last 10 over
Key Analysis
Toronto is going into their finale against Boston with a positive matchup on the slate. Fenway is notorious for giving right-handed hitters an advantage due its comically short left field fence, and so far Walker Buehler has yet to resemble the version of himself from years past. Vladdy has yet to discover his power stroke, and today is set up well for him. Even if he continues to hit without power, the matchup today is very appealing.
Risk Factors
Currently relies on multiple at bats due to lack of power production
🎯 Trae Young OVER 34.5 Points + Assists
Best Price: -140 on BetMGM
Recent Performance
Last Game: 38 PA
Last 3-Game Average: 35.6 PA
Last 5-Game Average: 36.4 PA
Season Average: 35.6 PA
How Has This Prop Performed?
2 out of last 3 over
4 out of last 5 over
7 out of last 10 over
Key Analysis
Trae Young has been playing well and consistently, acting as the nightly engine for the Hawks’ offense. Their season looks to be mostly over regardless of their final playoff seeding, but Young has never been one to decline an opportunity to the light up the scoreboard. Against the paltry Nets, look for Young to carry his team.
Risk Factors
Late season meaningless matchups can have additional volatility
Today's Featured Props Recap
We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:
Trending Overs
1. 📈 Brice Turang OVER 0.5 Runs (-129 on BetRivers)
3 runs yesterday
Hit over in 8/L10
Favoring offenses in Coors Field
2. âš¡Vladimir Guerrero Jr. OVER 1.5 Total Bases (-109 on Pinnacle)
3 bases yesterday
Facing positive matchup in Fenway against Buehler
3. âš¡Trae Young OVER 34.5 Points + Assists (-140 on BetMGM)
Excellent matchup against bad Nets team
Maintains excellent floor regardless of matchup
Today's Home Run Hitters
MLB hitters with higher probability to hit a home run based on season stats, matchups with starting pitchers and other key stats (odds from DraftKings)
Trout +280
Salvador Perez +400
Devers +370
All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.
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