Targeted Plays: Data-Driven MLB Betting Daily

Lean Research. Clear Execution. Real Value.

Author

Sage Davis
May 06, 2025

How about that Knicks comeback last night? What a finish.

We've got a full 16-game MLB slate today, and we're mixing things up with some new prop angles. Stay locked in—and keep an eye on X for parlays dropping throughout the day.

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Table of Contents

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

Yesterday (05/05): 1-2 (33%; -1.23 Units)

MLB: 44-51 (46%; +5.29 Units)

NBA: 115-85 (58%; +42.38 Units)

May ‘25: 5-9 (36%; -4.2 Units)

All-Time: 169-151 (53%; +41.48 Units)

🎯 Shohei Ohtani OVER 1.5 Total Bases

Best Price: -120 on ESPN Bet

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 2 TB

  • Last 3-Game Average: 2.67 TB/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 3 TB/G

  • Season Average: 2.25 TB/G

  • Confidence Score: 78

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 over

  • 4 out of last 5 over

Key Analysis

Shohei Ohtani’s Over 1.5 Total Bases at -120 on ESPN Bet is backed by consistent production and a favorable pitching matchup. Ohtani has hit this mark in 4 of his last 5 games, averaging 3 total bases over that stretch and 2.25 on the season. He’s coming off a 2-TB game and is seeing the ball well, with a .278 average against Quantrill across 18 at-bats. Quantrill, meanwhile, has been hittable lately, allowing 38 hits over his last 26.2 innings.

Risk Factors

  • Walk possibility

  • May need multiple hits

🎯 Nathan Eovaldi OVER 5.5 Strikeouts Thrown

Best Price: -132 on FanDuel

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 8 Ks

  • Last 3-Game Average: 7.33 K/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 5.8 K/G

  • Season Average: 6.57 K/G

  • Confidence Score: 73

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 over

  • 3 out of last 5 over

Key Analysis

Nathan Eovaldi’s Over 5.5 Strikeouts prop at -132 on FanDuel is backed by encouraging recent form and a favorable opponent. Eovaldi has cleared this line in three straight starts, averaging 7.33 Ks over his last three and 6.57 Ks on the season. While his five-game average sits just under at 5.8, the recent uptick in strikeout production is notable. He’s facing a Red Sox lineup that ranks 3rd in strikeouts per game (9.11), offering a high-upside matchup.

Risk Factors

  • Only 6 Ks for Boston last game

🎯 Seth Lugo UNDER 5.5 Hits Allowed

Best Price: -107 on Pinnacle

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 5 Hits

  • Last 3-Game Average: 4.33 H/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 5 H/G

  • Season Average: 4.857 H/G

  • Confidence Score: 77

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 under

  • 4 out of last 5 under

Key Analysis

Seth Lugo’s Under 5.5 Hits Allowed at -107 on Pinnacle offers strong value supported by both recent performance and a favorable matchup. Lugo has stayed under this line in three straight starts and four of his last five, allowing just 4.33 hits per game over his last three and 5 hits per game over his last five. His season average of 4.86 hits allowed per start also supports the under. He’ll face a White Sox lineup that ranks 29th in hits per game (6.94), one of the weakest in the league.

Risk Factors

  • White Sox hitting slightly better on the road

MLB Home Run Hitters Edge

MLB hitters with higher probability to hit a home run based on season stats, matchups with starting pitchers and other key stats (odds from DraftKings)

  • Mike Yastrzemski +475

  • Gunnar Henderson +425

  • George Springer +550

  • Juan Soto +350

  • Tyler Soderstrom +380

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Best Value Plays

  1. 🔥 Seth Lugo UNDER 5.5 Hits Allowed (-107 Pinancle)

    • Most consistent trend: 4/5 in L5

    • Allowing just 4.33 H/G over last 3

    • Facing White Sox lineup that ranks 29th in hits per game (6.94), one of the weakest in the league

Trending Overs

1. 📈 Shohei Ohtani OVER 1.5 Total Bases (-120 ESPN Bet)

  • Hot streak: 4/5 in L5

  • Averaging 3 TB/G in L5

  • Ohtani has.278 average against Quantrill who has been hittable lately, allowing 38 hits over his last 26.2 innings.

2. ⚡ Nathan Eovaldi OVER 5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-132 FanDuel)

  • 3/L3 games going OVER

  • 7.33 K/G over last 3 games

  • Facing a Red Sox lineup that ranks 3rd in strikeouts per game with 9.11

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!

— The WagerLens Team