Targeting Weak Arms and Reliable Bats for Profit

Four trending overs bound to cash

AuthorAuthor

Sage Davis & Brian McAbee
September 03, 2025

We’re lined up with 3.8 units of potential profit on today’s MLB card, building momentum as we head into a massive weekend full of NFL, MLB and CFB. Tomorrow brings the first big NFL newsletter of the season as we kick off the regular schedule, and NFL props are now live on WagerLens.com. With September just getting started, the goal is simple, stack units today and roll right into football season on a high note.

Table of Contents

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

MLB: 209-186 (53%; +17.44 Units)

September ‘25: 1-2 (33%; -0.83 Units)

Pick of the Day: 1-1 (50%; -0.17 Units)

All-Time: 334-287 (54%; +52.6 Units)

🎯 Brandon Nimmo OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Best Price: -110 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 5 H/R/RBIs

  • Last 3-Game Average: 2.67 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Last 5-Game Average: 4.4 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Season Average: 2.136 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Confidence Score: 91

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 over

  • 4 out of last 5 over

  • 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Brandon Nimmo’s OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs at -110 on DraftKings is well supported by both recent production and matchup data. He’s been hot at the plate, clearing this line in 8 of his last 10 games, including 4 of his last 5. Nimmo is averaging 2.67 H/R/RBIs over his last three games and an impressive 4.4 over his last five, well above his 2.136 season average. Nimmo also matches up well here, carrying an .822 OPS vs right-handed pitching, and he’ll face Casey Mize, who owns a 3.95 ERA but has struggled lately, allowing 20 hits and 12 runs across his last three starts. With Nimmo producing at an elevated level and Mize giving up steady contact, the 91 confidence score highlights this as a strong spot to back the over.

Risk Factors

  • Nimmo will likely need help from others in the lineup to cash

🎯 Tommy Pham OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Best Price: +105 on Caesars

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 6 H/R/RBIs

  • Last 3-Game Average: 3.33 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Last 5-Game Average: 3.4 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Season Average: 1.725 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Confidence Score: 92

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 over

  • 4 out of last 5 over

  • 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Tommy Pham’s OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs at +105 on Caesars is a sharp plus-money look given his recent production and the matchup. He’s cleared this number in 8 of his last 10 games, including 4 of his last 5, while averaging 3.4 H/R/RBIs over his last five games, nearly double his 1.725 season average. Pham owns a .344 OBP vs right-handed pitching, and he’ll face Shohei Ohtani, who has been vulnerable lately, giving up 16 hits and 10 earned runs across his last three starts (13.1 IP). The Dodgers’ bullpen hasn’t been much better, with Pittsburgh putting up 5 runs on 4 hits last night, including a hit and a run from Pham himself. With his hot bat, favorable splits, and LA’s pitching staff looking shaky, the 92 confidence score supports this as a strong value play.

Risk Factors

  • Ohtani has the ability to shut down an offense and Pham’s line is in line with his season average

🎯 Andrew Benintendi OVER 0.5 Singles

Best Price: +100 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 2 Singles

  • Last 3-Game Average: 1 1B/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 1.2 1B/G

  • Season Average: 0.577 1B/G

  • Confidence Score: 92

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 over

  • 4 out of last 5 over

  • 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Andrew Benintendi’s OVER 0.5 singles at +100 on DraftKings lines up as a solid even-money look with steady recent production. He’s notched singles in 8 of his last 10 games, including 4 of his last 5, while averaging 1.2 singles over his last five games, well above his 0.577 season average. Benintendi has been effective against right-handed pitching with a .310 OBP vs RHP, and he draws a favorable matchup against Zebby Matthews. Matthews has been consistently hittable, allowing 5+ hits in six straight games, which boosts Benintendi’s chances of finding at least one knock. With strong recent form, favorable splits, and a hittable starter on the mound, the 92 confidence score points to this as a sharp value play.

Risk Factors

  • XBH and walks will not cash

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🎯 Mitchell Parker OVER 2.5 Earned Runs

Best Price: -120 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 6 ER

  • Last 3-Game Average: 5.33 ER/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 5.6 ER/G

  • Season Average: 3.462 ER/G

  • Confidence Score: 88

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 over

  • 5 out of last 5 over

  • 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Mitchell Parker’s OVER 2.5 earned runs at -120 on DraftKings sets up as a strong play based on both his recent form and matchup history. He’s been getting hit hard, allowing 5.6 ER per game over his last five starts and 5.33 over his last three, well above his 3.46 season average. He’s gone over this number in 8 of his last 10 outings, including each of his last five. The matchup against Miami is especially notable. In two starts vs the Marlins this season, Parker has given up 13 hits and 9 earned runs, showing that this lineup has had his number. With Miami scoring consistently and Parker struggling to contain damage, the 88 confidence score reflects good value on the over.

Risk Factors

  • Miami has recently seen a dip in offensive production

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Best Value Plays

  1. 🔥 Tommy Pham OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+105 Caesars)

    • Most consistent trend: 4/5 in L5

    • Averaging 3.4 H/R/RBIs per game over his last 5

    • Pham owns a .344 OBP vs right-handed pitching, and he’ll face Shohei Ohtani, who has been vulnerable lately, giving up 16 hits and 10 earned runs across his last three starts (13.1 IP)

Trending Overs

1. 📈 Brandon Nimmo OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-110 DraftKings)

  • Hot streak: 8/10 in L10

  • Averaging 4.4 H/R/RBIs per game in L5

  • Nimmo also matches up well here, carrying an .822 OPS vs right-handed pitching, and he’ll face Casey Mize, who owns a 3.95 ERA but has struggled lately, allowing 20 hits and 12 runs across his last three starts

2. ⚡ Andrew Benintendi OVER 0.5 Singles (+100 DraftKings)

  • 8/L10 games going OVER

  • Averaging 1.2 1B/G over last 5

  • Benintendi has been effective against right-handed pitching with a .310 OBP vs RHP, and he draws a favorable matchup against Zebby Matthews, who has allowed 5+ hits in 6 straight games

3. 💥 Mitchell Parker OVER 2.5 Earned Runs (-120 DraftKings)

  • 5/L5 games going OVER

  • Averaging 5.6 ER/G over last 5 starts

  • The matchup against Miami is especially notable. In two starts vs the Marlins this season, Parker has given up 13 hits and 9 earned runs, showing that this lineup has had his number

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!

— The WagerLens Team