The Daily Edge: 3/3 NBA Props Edition

Sharp Analysis. Simple Execution. Daily Value.

AuthorAuthor

Samuel Garmoe & Sage Davis
March 03, 2025

Table of Contents

[ONE OR TWO LINE INTRO BLURB]

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

Yesterday (03/25): 2-1 (67%)

NBA: 68-48 (58.6%)

Mar ‘25: 4-2 (67%%)

All-Time: 73-55 (57%)

🎯 Marcus Smart UNDER 3.5 Assists

Best Price: -130 on Draft Kings

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 1 assist

  • Last 3-Game Average: 2 assists

  • Last 5-Game Average: 1.8 assists

  • Season Average: 3.7 assists

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 under

  • 5 out of last 5 under

  • 10 out of last 10 under

Key Analysis

Since being traded to the Wizards, Marcus Smart has been struggling. He has dealt with injuries and his numbers on the court have declined, evidenced by his 1.8 APG average over his last 5 games. His minutes are increasing but we are sticking with this consistent under as the Wizards go on the road to Miami.

Risk Factors

  • Could be playing from behind, increasing ceiling for assists

  • Minutes per game are increasing as he acclimates

🎯 Richaun Holmes OVER 9.5 PA (Points + Assists)

Best Price: -120 on ESPN Bet

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 18 PA

  • Last 3-Game Average: 18.3 PA

  • Last 5-Game Average: 15.4 PA

  • Season Average: 8.8 PA

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 over

  • 5 out of last 5 over

  • 9 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Richaun Holmes is on a hot streak, posting shooting percentages of 83%, 100%, and 100% over his last three games. He consistently plays at least 20 minutes and always adds in a few assists. Even if he cools off, hitting the over is well within his reach.

Risk Factors

  • Relying on high shooting percentage to hit

🎯 Tim Hardaway Jr. OVER 1.5 Assists

Best Price: -145 on ESPN Bet

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 2 assists

  • Last 3-Game Average: 2 APG

  • Last 5-Game Average: 2 APG

  • Season Average: 1.6 APG

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3

  • 5 out of last 5

  • 9 out of last 10

Key Analysis

Tim Hardaway Jr. provides consistent ball handling to the Pistons’ lineup and has previously hit the 2 assists mark against the Jazz earlier this season. The Pistons are heavily favored and likely to feed their rising star, Cade Cunningham. As Detroit looks to get in a groove approaching the playoffs, we expect their backcourt to lead the way.

Risk Factors

  • Game could get out of hand, limiting minutes for Hardaway

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Trending Overs

1. 📈 Richaun Holmes OVER 9.5 PA (-120 on ESPN Bet)

  • Most consistent trend: 5/5 in L5

  • 18.3 PA in L3

  • Minutes per game trending up

2. âš¡ Tim Hardaway Jr. OVER 1.5 Assists (-145 on ESPN Bet)

  • 9/10 games going OVER

  • Averaging 2 APG over L5

  • Previously hit 2 assists against Utah this season

Trending Unders

1. 📉 Marcus Smart UNDER 3.5 Assists (-130 on DraftKings)

  • 10/L10 games staying UNDER

  • 1.8 APG over L5

  • Still recovering from trade and injury

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

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