The Daily Edge: 3/14 NBA Props Edition

Sharp Analysis. Simple Execution. Daily Value.

March 14, 2025

Table of Contents

Yesterday was a rough one, going 0-3—the worst day of the month. But even with that setback, we’re still turning a strong profit in March. Time to regroup, refocus, and bounce back. With a loaded 10-game NBA slate tonight, we’re locking in the best props and getting back on track. Let’s cook!

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📊 WagerLens Performance Review

Yesterday (03/13): 0-3 (0%)

NBA: 89-57 (61%)

March ‘25: 25-11 (69.4%)

All-Time: 94-64 (59.5%)

🎯 Dillon Brooks OVER 3.5 Rebounds

Best Price: -140 on FanDuel

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 1 rebound

  • Last 3-Game Average: 3 RPG

  • Last 5-Game Average: 3.4 RPG

  • Season Average: 3.9 RPG

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 over

  • 4 out of last 5 over

  • 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Dillon Brooks' season average for rebounds per game (RPG) aligns closely with tonight’s line. While he has been slightly under that mark recently, the matchup presents a strong opportunity. The Dallas Mavericks allow the 6th most rebounds in the NBA this season, and Brooks has averaged 4.3 RPG against them, clearing tonight’s line in two of their three meetings. With Amen Thompson sidelined, Brooks should see additional rebounding chances.

Risk Factors

  • Recent minutes fluctuations

  • Low floor for RPG

🎯 Andre Drummond UNDER 10.5 Points

Best Price: -120 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 4 points

  • Last 3-Game Average: 6.3 PPG

  • Last 5-Game Average: 9.6 PPG

  • Season Average: 7.3 PPG

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 under

  • 4 out of last 5 under

  • 9 out of last 10 under

Key Analysis

Andre Drummond has consistently fallen short of tonight’s points line, averaging just 6.3 PPG over his last three games. Against the Pacers, he’s putting up 8 PPG and has yet to clear tonight’s line in their matchups. While the 76ers enter the night with a lengthy injury report, Drummond has remained under his projected total despite their recent injury struggles. Trends suggest another tough night offensively for him.

Risk Factors

  • 76ers injuries

  • Recent 25 point game

🎯 Rudy Gobert OVER 19.5 PR (Points + Rebounds)

Best Price: -122 on FanDuel

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 21 PR

  • Last 3-Game Average: 26.3 PR/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 25 PR/G

  • Season Average: 21.4 PR/G

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 over

  • 5 out of last 5 over

  • 10 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Since returning from injury, Rudy Gobert has picked up right where he left off, clearing tonight’s line in both of his first two games back. He’s been strong at home, averaging 23.7 PR/G, and put up 22 PR in his last matchup with the Magic. Dating back to before his injury, Gobert has surpassed tonight’s line in 10 straight games and is averaging 25 PR/G over his last five starts.

Risk Factors

  • Recent return from injury

  • Lower minutes in recent games

  • Possible blow out

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Best Value Plays

  1. 🔥 Andre Drummond UNDER 10.5 Points (-120 DraftKings)

    • Most consistent trend: 9/10 in L10

    • averaging just 6.3 PPG over his last three games

    • Against the Pacers, he’s putting up 8 PPG and has yet to clear tonight’s line in their matchups

Trending Overs

1. 📈 Rudy Gobert OVER 19.5 PR (-122 FanDuel)

  • Hot streak: 10/10 in L10

  • Averaging 25 PR/G in last 5 games

  • Strong at home, averaging 23.7 PR/G, and put up 22 PR in his last matchup with the Magic

1. 📈 Dillon Brooks OVER 3.5 Rebounds (-140 FanDuel)

  • Hot streak: 8/10 in L10

  • Averaging 3.4 RPG in last 5 games

  • The Dallas Mavericks allow the 6th most rebounds in the NBA this season, and Brooks has averaged 4.3 RPG against them

  • Amen Thompson being sidelined should open up more rebounding opportunity

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

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