The Daily Edge: 3/6 NBA Props Edition

Sharp Analysis. Simple Execution. Daily Value.

March 06, 2025

Table of Contents

Just one assist away from back-to-back sweeps, but we’ll take a 2-1 night with one DNP. March is off to a hot start, and the goal stays the same—keep the momentum, stay green, and keep cashing in! Let’s get after it.

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

Yesterday (03/05): 2-1 (67%)

NBA: 75-50 (60%)

March ‘25: 11-4 (73.3%)

All-Time: 80-57 (58.4%)

🎯 Georges Niang OVER 3.5 Rebounds

Best Price: -120 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 3 rebounds

  • Last 3-Game Average: 3.7 rebounds

  • Last 5-Game Average: 4.2 rebounds

  • Season Average: 3.8 rebounds

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 over

  • 4 out of last 5 over

  • 9 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Georges Niang has been consistently clearing tonight’s 3.5 rebound line, doing so in 9 of his last 10 games while averaging 4.6 RPG in that span. Though he averaged just 1.5 RPG in two matchups against the Pacers earlier this season, he was with the Cavs and playing fewer minutes. With an expanded role, the over looks like a solid spot.

Risk Factors

  • Averaging 1.5 rebounds against Hawks this season

  • Minute fluctuations

  • Low floor

🎯 Amen Thompson OVER 8.5 Rebounds

Best Price: -137 on Caesars

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 12 rebounds

  • Last 3-Game Average: 10.7 rebounds

  • Last 5-Game Average: 10 rebounds

  • Season Average: 8.3 rebounds

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 over

  • 5 out of last 5 over

  • 9 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Tonight’s line sits right in line with Amen Thompson’s season rebound average, but recent trends suggest upside. He’s coming off a 12-rebound performance and averaging 10.7 RPG over his last three games. While he’s only put up 7 RPG against New Orleans this season, his minutes have increased by nearly 10 per game since those matchups. With the extra playing time, he’s in a strong spot to clear the line.

Risk Factors

  • Heavy juice

  • Low floor for RPG

🎯 Draymond Green OVER 14.5 PA (Points + Assists)

Best Price: -145 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 16 PA

  • Last 3-Game Average: 20 PA

  • Last 5-Game Average: 19.4 PA

  • Season Average: 14.7 PA

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 over

  • 5 out of last 5 over

  • 9 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Draymond Green has been outperforming his season averages in recent games, putting up 18.7 PA over his last seven—4 above his season mark. With Golden State heavily favored against Brooklyn, he should see plenty of opportunities, especially with Kuminga still sidelined. The added usage makes Green a strong candidate to keep up his recent production.

Risk Factors

  • Heavy minute fluctuations

  • Low floor

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Best Value Plays

  1. 🔥 Georges Niang OVER 3.5 Rebounds (-120 DraftKings)

    • Most consistent trend: 9/10 in L10

    • Averaging 4.6 RPG over last 10

    • New role with Hawks creates more rebounding opportunity

Trending Overs

1. 📈 Amen Thompson OVER 8.5 Rebounds (-137 Caesars)

  • Hot streak: 9/10 in L10

  • Averaging 10.7 RPG in L3

  • Minutes have increased by nearly 10 per game since last NO matchups

2. âš¡ Draymond Green OVER 14.5 PA (-145 DraftKings)

  • 9/L10 games going OVER

  • Averaging 18.7 PA over last 7 games

  • Kuminga is sidelined allowing more scoring opportunity

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

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