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Low-Scoring Locks: 3 Unders to Target Tonight
Sharp Analysis. Simple Execution. Daily Value.
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Took a few swings on parlays yesterday—came up empty. But no sweat, we’re still profitable in March, even with a slight regression toward our all-time average. With the Sweet 16 and MLB Opening Day on deck, we’re locking in on the NBA for the next two days. Let’s dial in and go for the sweep tonight!
📊 WagerLens Performance Review
NBA: 93-66 (58.5%)
March ‘25: 32-26 (55%)
All-Time: 101-79 (56%)
💎 Today’s Featured Props
🎯 Keldon Johnson UNDER 5.5 Rebounds
Best Price: -120 on ESPN Bet
Recent Performance
Last Game: 2 rebounds
Last 3-Game Average: 5.7 RPG
Last 5-Game Average: 5.2 RPG
Season Average: 4.6 RPG
How Has This Prop Performed?
2 out of last 3 under
4 out of last 5 under
9 out of last 10 under
Key Analysis
Keldon Johnson has struggled to hit tonight’s rebounding line of 5.5, staying under in 9 of his last 10 games. His lone exception—a 10-rebound game against the Knicks—skews his short-term averages. The Pistons rank 5th in least rebounds allowed per game, and Johnson managed just 4 boards in their last matchup.
Risk Factors
Charles Bassey out
High ceiling for RPG
🎯 Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 126.5 Team Points
Best Price: -130 on BetMGM
Recent Performance
Last Game: 108 points
Last 3-Game Average: 109.7 PPG
Last 5-Game Average: 115.6 PPG
Season Average: 122.1 PPG
How Has This Prop Performed?
3 out of last 3 under
5 out of last 5 under
10 out of last 10 under
Key Analysis
Memphis has stayed under 127 points in 18 of their last 20 games, averaging 122.1 PPG on the season and 120.7 PPG on the road. Against Utah, they’ve put up 124.3 PPG across three matchups, failing to clear tonight’s line in any of them. With Ja Morant still sidelined, the Grizzlies remain without their primary scoring threat, making the UNDER a strong play.
Risk Factors
Jazz allows 2nd most PPG to opponents
🎯 Darius Garland UNDER 22.5 Points
Best Price: -110 on DraftKings
Recent Performance
Last Game: 12 points
Last 3-Game Average: 15.7 PPG
Last 5-Game Average: 17.2 PPG
Season Average: 20.7 PPG
How Has This Prop Performed?
3 out of last 3 under
5 out of last 5 under
9 out of last 10 under
Key Analysis
Darius Garland’s season average sits below tonight’s line, and his recent scoring has dipped even further. Over his last three games, he’s averaging just 15.7 PPG and has cleared 22.5 points in only 1 of his last 10 games. In his lone matchup against Portland this season, he managed just 13 points—despite playing 8.5 minutes above his season average. The UNDER looks like a strong play.
Risk Factors
Donovan Mitchell OUT
Today's Featured Props Recap
We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:
Best Value Plays
🔥 Darius Garland UNDER 22.5 Points (-110 DraftKings)
Most consistent trend: 9/10 in L10
Averaging 15.7 PPG over last 3
In his lone matchup against Portland this season, he managed just 13 points—despite playing 8.5 minutes above his season average
Trending Unders
1. 📉 Keldon Johnson UNDER 5.5 Rebounds (-120 ESPN Bet)
9/L10 games staying UNDER
Averaging just 5.1 RPG over last 7 games
The Pistons rank 5th in least rebounds allowed per game
1. 📉 Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 126.5 Team Points (-120 BetMGM)
10/L10 games staying UNDER
Averaging just 120.7 PPG on the road
Against Utah, they’ve put up 124.3 PPG across three matchups, failing to clear tonight’s line in any of them
All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.
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— The WagerLens Team