The Daily Edge: 3/12 NBA Props Edition

Sharp Analysis. Simple Execution. Daily Value.

March 12, 2025

Table of Contents

We wrapped up yesterday with a 1-1 split, just one Tobias Harris PR away from the 2-0 sweep. Tonight, we’ve got a loaded 9-game slate to break down, and things are only heating up—March Madness is less than a week away! Stay tuned for some big announcements coming soon.

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

Yesterday (03/11): 1-1 (50%)

NBA: 87-53 (62%)

March ‘25: 23-7 (76.7%)

All-Time: 92-60 (60.5%)

🎯 DaQuan Jeffries UNDER 7.5 Points

Best Price: -130 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 8 points

  • Last 3-Game Average: 5.7 PPG

  • Last 5-Game Average: 4.6 PPG

  • Season Average: 4.8 PPG

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 under

  • 4 out of last 5 under

  • 9 out of last 10 under

Key Analysis

Jeffries has consistently fallen short of tonight’s line this season, with his last outing being an outlier—logging 15 more minutes than his season average. Over his last seven games, he’s putting up just 4.4 PPG. With the Hawks as strong favorites, a potential blowout could limit his role change Jeffries role in tonights game.

Risk Factors

  • Minute fluctuations

  • Playing from behind could influence game plan

🎯 Jaden McDaniels OVER 21.5 PRA (Points + Rebounds + Assists)

Best Price: -125 on ESPN Bet

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 27 PRA

  • Last 3-Game Average: 31 PRA

  • Last 5-Game Average: 27.8 PRA

  • Season Average: 20.5 PRA

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 over

  • 5 out of last 5 over

  • 10 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

McDaniels has been consistently hitting the over in recent games, averaging 28.3 PRA over his last seven. While he’s averaged just 18 PRA against the Nuggets this season, context matters—he played only 26 minutes in their early-season matchup where he performed below tonights line. With his role expanding significantly, expect him to see more opportunities, making the over a strong play tonight.

Risk Factors

  • Season average falls just below tonights line

  • Recent increase in minutes, could regress to mean

🎯 Max Christie UNDER 22.5 PRA (Points + Rebounds + Assists)

Best Price: -113 on Caesars

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 21 PRA

  • Last 3-Game Average: 18 PRA

  • Last 5-Game Average: 17.8 PRA

  • Season Average: 14.5 PRA

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 under

  • 5 out of last 5 under

  • 10 out of last 10 under

Key Analysis

Christie has stayed under tonight’s line in 10 straight games and has struggled against the Spurs, averaging just 16.6 PRA while failing to clear the mark in all four matchups this season. However, one potential risk is his increased role recently, as the Mavericks' season continues to spiral.

Risk Factors

  • Has recently been outperforming season average

  • High ceiling of 33 PRA this season

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Best Value Plays

  1. 🔥 Max Christie UNDER 22.5 PRA (-113 Caesars)

    • Most consistent trend: 10/10 in L10

    • Has not cleared tonights line in any of 4 matchups with Spurs

    • Christie has performed under this line in 10 straight games and only averages 16.6 PRA against the Spurs

Trending Overs

1. 📈 Jaden McDaniels OVER 21.5 PRA (-125 ESPN Bet)

  • Hot streak: 10/10 in L10

  • Averaging 28.3 PRA in L7

  • With an average of 31 PRA in last 3, even a dip in production should cash the over

Trending Unders

1. 📉 DaQuan Jeffries UNDER 7.5 Points (-130 DraftKings)

  • 9/L10 games staying UNDER

  • Averaging just 4.4 PPG over last 7

  • Just cleared tonights line in a game with 15 minutes over his average

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

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— The WagerLens Team