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The Daily Edge: 3/5 NBA Props Edition
Sharp Analysis. Simple Execution. Daily Value.
Table of Contents
We kicked off March with three straight 2-1 days, and last night, we finally hit the long-awaited 3-0 sweep (with one DNP)! As promised, we're giving one lucky follower who likes our pinned post on X a free $10—don’t miss out! Tap in!
📊 WagerLens Performance Review
Yesterday (03/04): 3-0 (100%)
NBA: 73-49 (59.8%)
March ‘25: 9-3 (75%)
All-Time: 78-56 (58.2%)
💎 Today’s Featured Props
🎯 Brice Sensabaugh UNDER 4.5 Rebounds
Best Price: -140 on ESPN Bet
Recent Performance
Last Game: 2 rebounds
Last 3-Game Average: 2.3 rebounds
Last 5-Game Average: 3 rebounds
Season Average: 2.5 rebounds
How Has This Prop Performed?
3 out of last 3 under
5 out of last 5 under
10 out of last 10 under
Key Analysis
Brice Sensabaugh has only hit his rebound prop 7 times in 32 games this season. Over his last 10 outings, he’s averaging just 2.3 rebounds per game—nearly half of tonight’s line. With the Jazz dealing with a lengthy injury report, Sensabaugh’s role could see some shifts, but will it be enough to push him over the number?
Risk Factors
Hefty injury report
Minute fluctuations
🎯 Spencer Dinwiddie UNDER 24.5 PA (Points + Assists)
Best Price: -125 on ESPN Bet
Recent Performance
Last Game: 16 PA
Last 3-Game Average: 13.7 PA
Last 5-Game Average: 11.6 PA
Season Average: 13.8 PA
How Has This Prop Performed?
3 out of last 3 under
5 out of last 5 under
9 out of last 10 under
Key Analysis
Spencer Dinwiddie has struggled to reach tonight’s line of 24.5 PA all season. Over his last five games, he’s averaging just 11.6 PA, making a jump to 24.5 a major challenge. In his last matchup against the Bucks, he managed only 15 PA. With a lengthy injury report and Kyrie Irving’s recent ACL tear, Dinwiddie’s role could see adjustments.
Risk Factors
Lengthy injury report
High ceiling
🎯 Rudy Gobert OVER 19.5 PR (Points + Rebounds)
Best Price: -130 on DraftKings and ESPN Bet
Recent Performance
Last Game: 34 PR
Last 3-Game Average: 26.7 PR
Last 5-Game Average: 25.6 PR
Season Average: 21.4 PR
How Has This Prop Performed?
3 out of last 3 over
5 out of last 5 over
9 out of last 10 over
Key Analysis
Rudy Gobert has been consistently clearing tonight’s PR line, including an impressive 34 PR performance in his last game. Over his last seven games, he’s averaging 27.4 PR—nearly 8 PR above tonight’s line. Even with a slight dip in production, Gobert is well-positioned to hit the over once again.
Risk Factors
Returning from back injury
Low Floor
🎯 Tim Hardaway Jr. OVER 1.5 Assists
Best Price: -125 on ESPN Bet
Recent Performance
Last Game: 3 assists
Last 3-Game Average: 2.3 assists
Last 5-Game Average: 2.2 assists
Season Average: 1.7 assists
How Has This Prop Performed?
3 out of last 3 over
5 out of last 5 over
9 out of last 10 over
Key Analysis
Lately, Tim Hardaway Jr. has seen a slight boost in productivity, especially in the assist department. Over his last 10 games, he’s averaging 2.1 assists per game, surpassing his season average of 1.7 APG. In his last matchup against the Hornets, he recorded 2 assists, enough to clear tonight’s line. So far in March, Hardaway Jr. is averaging 2.5 APG over two games—can he keep the trend going?
Risk Factors
Minute Fluctuations
Low Floor
Today's Featured Props Recap
We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:
Best Value Plays
🔥 Spencer Dinwiddie UNDER 24.5 PA (-125 ESPN Bet)
Most consistent trend: 5/5 in L5
Over his last five games he’s averaging just 11.6 PA
Odds at -125 and averages around half of tonight’s line
Trending Overs
1. 📈 Rudy Gobert OVER 19.5 PR (-130 DraftKings/ESPN Bet)
Hot streak: 9/10 in L10
Averaging 27.4 PR in L7
Even a dip in production should clear tonight’s line
2. âš¡ Tim Hardaway Jr. OVER 1.5 Assists (-125 ESPN Bet)
9/L10 games going OVER
Averaging 2.1 APG over L10 games
Averaging 2.5 APG so far in March
Trending Unders
1. 📉 Brice Sensabaugh UNDER 4.5 Rebounds (-125 ESPN Bet)
10/L10 games staying UNDER
Averaging just 2.3 RPG over L10
Has only cleared tonight’s line 7 times this season
All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.
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