- The WagerLens Newsletter
- Posts
- No Fools Here - Props to Trust (4/1)
No Fools Here - Props to Trust (4/1)
Sharp Analysis. Simple Execution. Daily Value.
Samuel Garmoe
April 01, 2025
Table of Contents
Welcome to April! We are grateful to be out of March. The phrase “in like a lion, out like a lamb” generally applies to the weather, but in this case it applies to our picks. March Madness was tough on our numbers, but that just gives an opportunity to learn and be better the next time around. Be on the lookout for our MLB analysis coming soon!
📊 WagerLens Performance Review
Yesterday (3/31): 1-2 (33%)
NBA: 100-77 (56%)
March 2025: 41-40 (50.6%%)
All-Time: 110-92 (54%)
💎 Today’s Featured Props
🎯 OG Anunoby OVER 24.5 PA
Best Price: -130 on DraftKings
Recent Performance
Last Game: 30 PA
Last 3-Game Average: 31.3 PA
Last 5-Game Average: 33.2 PA
Season Average: 19.8 PA
How Has This Prop Performed?
3 out of last 3 over
5 out of last 5 over
8 out of last 10 over
Key Analysis
OG Anunoby is on a quiet hot streak recently. The Knicks’ forward has become a vital piece in their quest to secure a high playoff seed, particularly due to their slew of injuries and need to keep KAT healthy. His minutes have not changed, but his involvement in the offense is clearly dialed up. Against a paltry 76ers team at home, look for him to pile it on early.
Risk Factors
Bench may get emptied in a blowout
🎯 Nickeil Alexander-Walker OVER 10.5 PA
Best Price: -105 on ESPN Bet
Recent Performance
Last Game: 15 PA
Last 3-Game Average: 11.3 PA
Last 5-Game Average: 11.2 PA
Season Average: 11.8 PA
How Has This Prop Performed?
2 out of last 3 over
4 out of last 5 over
8 out of last 10 over
Key Analysis
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets is the matchup of the night. Denver at home is always a recipe for offensive fireworks, and this game matters for both teams to work on their playoffs seedings. Alexander-Walker is not a sexy pick, but we don’t need him to be. The line here demonstrates the volatility, but we’re willing to take the swing and bet on a high scoring game.
Risk Factors
PA numbers do not deviate far off his season averages
🎯 Nikola Vucevic UNDER 1.5 Turnovers
Best Price: -110 on ESPN Bet
Recent Performance
Last Game: 3 TO
Last 3-Game Average: 1.7 TO
Last 5-Game Average: 1.5 TO
Season Average: 1.6 TO
How Has This Prop Performed?
2 out of last 3 under
4 out of last 5 under
9 out of last 10 under
Key Analysis
Vucevic is admittedly coming off a game with multiple turnovers, but we’re betting this was an aberration. He had hit the under for his previous 9, and last night he had the unpleasant experience of playing against OKC on the road. Tonight is a different story. The Bulls are at home against the Raptors, giving us a much more favorable situation.
Risk Factors
Could play well and still hit the over
Today's Featured Props Recap
We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:
Trending Overs
1. 📈 OG Anunoby OVER 24.5 PA (-130 on DraftKings)
Averaging 33.2 PA over last 5
Heavily relied upon while NYK recovers from injuries
2. ⚡ Nickeil Alexander-Walker OVER 10.5 PA (-105 on ESPN Bet)
8/L10 games going OVER
Game scripts to hit overs for many players
Trending Unders
1. 📉 Nikola Vucevic UNDER 1.5 Turnovers (-110 on ESPN Bet)
9/L10 games staying UNDER
Returning home against a bad team
Only miss in L10 came on the road against OKC
All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.
Ready to Raise Your Betting Game?
Join the sharpest sports bettors in the game at WagerLens.com. Our cutting-edge platform gives you the tools, data, and insights you need to make smarter bets.
With WagerLens, you'll unlock access to:
Advanced analytics & proprietary algorithms
Intuitive tools for market analysis
Expert educational content
A passionate community of winning bettors
Join WagerLens now and start betting smarter!
For daily NBA plays and insights, be sure to follow WagerLens on X as we keep you updated on the action!
As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!
— The WagerLens Team