The Daily Edge: 3/9 NBA Props Edition

Sharp Analysis. Simple Execution. Daily Value.

March 09, 2025

Table of Contents

Our picks went a solid 2-1 yesterday, and we're ready to keep that momentum rolling into today's action. Games start at 1pm EST, so be sure to get your picks in early to maximize your edge!

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

Yesterday (03/08): 2-1 (67%)

NBA: 83-51 (62%)

Mar ‘25: 19-5 (79%)

All-Time: 88-58 (60%)

🎯 Max Christie UNDER 22.5 PRA

Best Price: -105 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 16 PRA

  • Last 3-Game Average: 17 PRA

  • Last 5-Game Average: 15.4 PRA

  • Season Average: 14.3 PRA/G

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 under

  • 5 out of last 5 under

  • 8 out of last 10 under

Key Analysis

Christie's PRA production has been consistently below this line, with his recent five-game average of 15 PRA sitting well beneath today's 22.5 total. His season average of just 14.3 suggests this line may be inflated, even with his usage increasing with all of Dallas’ injuries. While his L10 average shows slight improvement over his season numbers, it still falls comfortably below the prop line.

Risk Factors

  • Expanded role will lead to more opportunities with Kyrie and others injured

  • Recent sample size may not fully reflect current role

🎯 Brice Sensabaugh UNDER 4.5 Rebounds

Best Price: -130 on ESPN Bet

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 4 rebounds

  • Last 3-Game Average: 3.3 rebounds

  • Last 5-Game Average: 3 rebounds

  • Season Average: 2.6 RPG

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 under

  • 5 out of last 5 under

  • 10 out of last 10 under

Key Analysis

Sensabaugh's rebounding numbers show remarkable consistency staying under this total. With a season average under 3 rebounds per game, he rarely approaches the 4.5 threshold. The perfect 10-for-10 under rate in his last ten games reflects exceptional reliability, as indicated by the 100% success rates across all timeframes in WagerLens.

Risk Factors

  • Utah is playing without Lauri Markkanen, John Collins, and Jordan Clarkson today

  • Recent game saw him at 4 rebounds, his ceiling appears close to the line

🎯 Christian Braun OVER 22.5 PRA

Best Price: -110 on FanDuel/ESPN Bet

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 35 PRA

  • Last 3-Game Average: 30.7 PRA

  • Last 5-Game Average: 29.8 PRA

  • Season Average: 22.7 PRA/G

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 over

  • 5 out of last 5 over

  • 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Braun’s increased usage has led to him his PRA line consistently, with his recent production far surpassing both the prop total and his season average. His last three games have averaged over 30 PRA, providing a comfortable cushion above today's line. Denver’s on a hot streak right now and Braun has definitely contributed his fair share.

Risk Factors

  • Season average (22.7) sits very close to the line

  • Denver's rotation can fluctuate based on matchups

  • Performance could regress toward season average going up against OKC

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Best Value Plays

  1. 🔥 Brice Sensabaugh UNDER 4.5 Rebounds (-130 ESPN Bet)

    • Most consistent trend: 10/10 in L10

    • Season average (2.6) far below line

    • Perfect hit rate across all timeframes

Trending Overs

1. 📈 Christian Braun OVER 22.5 PRA (-110 FanDuel/ESPN Bet)

  • Hot streak: 5/5 in L5

  • Averaging 29.8 PRA in L5

  • Reasonable juice for strong trend

Trending Unders

1. 📉 Max Christie UNDER 22.5 PRA (-105 DraftKings)

  • 8/10 games staying UNDER

  • Season average (14.3) far below line

  • Best value pricing with minimal juice

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

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— The WagerLens Team