The Daily Edge: 3/4 NBA Props Edition

Sharp Analysis. Simple Execution. Daily Value.

March 04, 2025

Table of Contents

March is off to a strong start! We went 2-1 for the third straight day, bringing us to 6-3 on the month. With a nine-game slate ahead, it's time to lock in, find the best value, and chase that perfect sweep.

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

Yesterday (03/03): 2-1 (67%)

NBA: 70-49 (58.8%)

March ‘25: 6-3 (67%)

All-Time: 75-56 (57%)

🎯 Jalen Green UNDER 29.5 PR (Points + Rebounds)

Best Price: -115 on ESPN Bet

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 24 PR

  • Last 3-Game Average: 26 PR

  • Last 5-Game Average: 27.8 PR

  • Season Average: 26 PR

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 under

  • 4 out of last 5 under

  • 8 out of last 10 under

Key Analysis

Despite leading the Rockets in scoring, Jalen Green has consistently fallen short of tonight’s projected line. His season average sits four PR below the mark, and in his last matchup against the Pacers, he managed just 18 PR. With multiple injured teammates potentially returning, expect the trend to continue—making the under a strong play.

Risk Factors

  • Leading scorer for the Rockets

  • High ceiling for Points scored

🎯 Cole Anthony UNDER 15.5 PA (Points + Assists)

Best Price: -110 on FanDuel

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 8 PA

  • Last 3-Game Average: 11 PA

  • Last 5-Game Average: 12.6 PA

  • Season Average: 12.1 PA

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 under

  • 4 out of last 5 under

  • 8 out of last 10 under

Key Analysis

Cole Anthony’s season average for PA per game sits nearly four PA below tonight’s line. His recent trend of declining minutes further supports the case for the under on 15.5 PA. Against the Raptors this season, he’s averaging 14 PA, including just 7 PA in their last matchup two nights ago.

Risk Factors

  • High variability in points scored across season

  • Minutes played

🎯 Darius Garland UNDER 28.5 PA (Points + Assists)

Best Price: -117 on Caesars

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 20 PA

  • Last 3-Game Average: 20.3 PA

  • Last 5-Game Average: 22.2 PA

  • Season Average: 27.9 PA

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 under

  • 5 out of last 5 under

  • 9 out of last 10 under

Key Analysis

Darius Garland’s recent performance has been trending downward, with his three-game average sitting nearly 9 PA below tonight’s line and almost 8 PA under his season average. In two early-season matchups against the Bulls, he’s averaged 30 PA, clearing tonight’s mark in just one of those games.

Risk Factors

  • Evan Mobley out

  • Uneven matchup with Bulls

🎯 Jakob Poeltl OVER 11.5 PA (Points + Assists)

Best Price: -135 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 19 PA

  • Last 3-Game Average: 14.7 PA

  • Last 5-Game Average: 12.8 PA

  • Season Average: 16.9 PA

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 over

  • 4 out of last 5 over

  • 9 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Jakob Poeltl’s five-game average sits 4 PA below his season mark, but despite the dip, he’s consistently cleared tonight’s line of 11.5 PA. Against the Magic this season, he’s averaging 18 PA, surpassing the mark in two of three matchups. With the Raptors missing four players tonight, Poeltl’s role should expand, making the over an intriguing play.

Risk Factors

  • Low floor

  • Minute fluctuations

  • Recent matchup with Magic could cause change in game plan

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Best Value Plays

  1. 🔥 Cole Anthony UNDER 15.5 PA (-110 FanDuel)

    • Most consistent trend: 3/3 in L3

    • Average PA in Raptors matchups below tonight’s line

    • Minutes played trending down

Trending Overs

1. 📈 Jakob Poeltl OVER 11.5 PA (-135 DraftKings)

  • Hot streak: 9/10 in L10

  • Averaging 15.6 PA in L10

  • Surpassed tonights line in 2 of 3 matchups with Magic this season

Trending Unders

1. 📉 [Darius Garland UNDER 28.5 PA (-117 Caesars)

  • 9/10 games staying UNDER

  • Three-game average sitting nearly 9 PA below tonight’s line

  • With performance so far below tonight’s line, even an improvement should fall below

2. 📉 Jalen Green UNDER 29.5 PR (-115 ESPN Bet)

  • 4/5 games staying UNDER

  • Last matchup against the Pacers, he managed just 18 PR

  • 10 game average of just 26.7 PR

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

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— The WagerLens Team