The Daily Edge: 3/10 NBA Props Edition

Sharp Analysis. Simple Execution. Daily Value.

March 10, 2025

Table of Contents

A new week is here, and we’re ready to keep the momentum rolling after last week’s insane success! We wrapped things up with three sweeps and three $10 giveaways, proving once again why our picks are the real deal. Let’s lock in and make this another profitable week!

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

Yesterday (03/09): 2-1 (67%)

NBA: 85-52 (62%)

March ‘25: 21-6 (77.8%)

All-Time: 90-59 (60.4%)

🎯 Jayson Tatum OVER 2.5 Turnovers

Best Price: -125 on ESPN Bet

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 3 Turnovers

  • Last 3-Game Average: 4.3 TO/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 4 TO/G

  • Season Average: 2.9 TO/G

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 over

  • 5 out of last 5 over

  • 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Jayson Tatum has been struggling with ball control lately, averaging 4.3 turnovers per game over his last three outings. At home, he hasn’t been much cleaner, posting 3 turnovers per game this season. Notably, in two of his last six games, Tatum has coughed it up six times, doubling tonight’s projected line.

Risk Factors

  • Potential blowout may limit minutes

  • Jazz low opponent turnover rate

🎯 Ja Morant UNDER 4.5 Rebounds

Best Price: -140 on DraftKings/FanDuel

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 4 Rebounds

  • Last 3-Game Average: 3.7 RPG

  • Last 5-Game Average: 3.8 RPG

  • Season Average: 4 RPG

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 under

  • 5 out of last 5 under

  • 8 out of last 10 under

Key Analysis

Ja Morant’s rebounding numbers have been all over the place this season, ranging from 0 to 10 boards on any given night. However, over his last seven games, he’s averaging 3.6 rebounds and did not clear this line once. Against the Suns this season, he’s split results—grabbing 7 rebounds in one matchup but just 4 in the other.

Risk Factors

  • Variability in rebounding stats

  • Strong performance in 1 of 2 Suns matchups

🎯 Jaxson Hayes UNDER 16.5 PR (Points + Rebounds)

Best Price: -103 on Casesars

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 13 PR

  • Last 3-Game Average: 18.3 PR/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 15.6 PR/G

  • Season Average: 11 PR/G

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 under

  • 3 out of last 5 under

  • 8 out of last 10 under

Key Analysis

Jaxson Hayes has consistently fallen short of tonight’s line this season, averaging 11 PR/G overall and 13.6 PR/G over his last 10 games. In his previous matchup with the Nets, he totaled 15 PR, showing he’s capable of hitting this mark. However, a key factor to watch is the absence of Finney-Smith and James, which could open up more opportunities for Hayes.

Risk Factors

  • Role change due to injuries

  • Increase in minutes

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Trending Overs

1. 📈 Jayson Tatum OVER 2.5 Turnovers (-125 ESPN Bet)

  • Hot streak: 8/10 in L10

  • Averaging 4.3 TO/G in L3

  • 6 turnovers in 2 of L6 games

Trending Unders

1. 📉 Ja Morant UNDER 4.5 Rebounds (-140 DraftKings/FanDuel)

  • 5/L5 games staying UNDER

  • Season average of just 4 RPG

  • Has not cleared this line in 7 games while averaging 3.6 RPG

Watch List

1. ⚠️ Jaxson Hayes UNDER 16.5 PR (-103 Caesars)

  • Strong trend but injuries on Lakers may increase Hayes’ role

  • Averaging 11 PR/G overall and 13.6 PR/G over his last 10 games, strong performance against pelicans inflating more recent stats

  • Currently questionable himself, other key scorers/rebounders OUT in tonights game possibly leading to increased minutes and play making.

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

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