Under Radar: VanVleet's Slump & Morant's Explosion

Sharp Analysis. Simple Execution. Daily Value.

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Welcome to today's WagerLens NBA Props breakdown, where we're focusing on the statistical disparities that create betting value. The market is still adjusting to Fred VanVleet's recent offensive decline in Houston, with his points and assists production plummeting his season average. Meanwhile, Ja Morant has been on an absolute tear, exploding for 44 points in his most recent game. We're also tracking Josh Hart's consistently modest offensive production, as his numbers continue to stay well below the betting market's expectations.

In today's newsletter, we're diving into these statistical patterns, examining the reliability of recent trends, and identifying the strongest plays based on WagerLens data tracking. Let's break down some plays for March 15th.

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📊 WagerLens Performance Review

Yesterday (03/15): 1-1 (50%)

NBA: 90-58 (61%)

March ‘25: 26-12 (68%)

All-Time: 95-65 (59.38%)

🎯 Ja Morant OVER 23.5 Points

Best Price: -125 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 44 points

  • Last 3-Game Average: 33.7 points

  • Last 5-Game Average: 32.8 points

  • Season Average: 22.3 PPG

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 over

  • 5 out of last 5 over

  • 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Morant has been on a scoring tear, with his recent production far exceeding both his season average and today's prop line. His last five games have averaged 32.8 points, over 9 points higher than the current line. His explosive 44-point performance in his most recent game demonstrates his high ceiling. While his season average of 22.3 PPG is slightly below the line, his recent form suggests he's in a different offensive gear right now.

Risk Factors

  • Heavier juice across all books reflects strong market confidence

  • Season average sits marginally below the line

  • Scoring can fluctuate based on defensive matchup against Miami

🎯 Fred VanVleet Under 18.5 PA (Points + Assists)

Best Price: -125 on ESPN Bet

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 11 PA

  • Last 3-Game Average: 11 PA

  • Last 5-Game Average: 11.2 PA

  • Season Average: 19.8 PA/G

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 under

  • 5 out of last 5 under

  • 7 out of last 10 under

Key Analysis

VanVleet's points and assists production has fallen off significantly from his season average. His recent five-game average of 11.2 PA sits well below today's line of 18.5, showing a consistent pattern of underperformance. The downward trend arrow in WagerLens supports this analysis. What's most notable is the large gap between his season average (19.8 PA/G) and recent production, suggesting his nagging ankle injury could still be bothering him.

Risk Factors

  • Season average is above the current line

  • Role could expand if backcourt teammates are limited

  • Potential for regression toward season averages

🎯 Josh Hart Under 22.5 PA (Points + Assists)

Best Price: -115 on BetMGM

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 20 PA

  • Last 3-Game Average: 20.3 PA

  • Last 5-Game Average: 17.2 PA

  • Season Average: 20.1 PA/G

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 under

  • 5 out of last 5 under

  • 8 out of last 10 under

Key Analysis

Hart has been consistently performing below this PA line, with his five-game average of 17.2 PA providing a comfortable cushion beneath the 22.5 total. Despite his all-around contributions to the Knicks, his points and assists production has been limited by the team's other offensive options. The downward trend arrow in WagerLens reinforces this under play. His consistent performance trend, combined with reasonable pricing across books, makes this an appealing option.

Risk Factors

  • Recent games (L1 and L3) trending closer to the line

  • Increased offensive responsibility if Jalen Brunson with still out

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Best Value Plays

  1. 🔥 Ja Morant OVER 23.5 Points (-125 DraftKings)

    • Most consistent trend: 5/5 in L5

    • Averaging 32.8 points in L5

    • Recent explosion (44 points) shows high ceiling

Trending Unders

1. 📉 Fred VanVleet UNDER 18.5 PA (-125 ESPN Bet)

  • Strong trend: 5/5 unders in L5

  • Recent average (11.2) far below line

  • Significant drop from season average

2. 📉 Josh Hart UNDER 22.5 PA (-115 BetMGM)

  • 8/10 games staying UNDER

  • Best pricing with minimal juice

  • Season average (20.1) supports the trend

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

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— The WagerLens Team