- The WagerLens Newsletter
- Posts
- Under Radar: VanVleet's Slump & Morant's Explosion
Under Radar: VanVleet's Slump & Morant's Explosion
Sharp Analysis. Simple Execution. Daily Value.

Table of Contents
Welcome to today's WagerLens NBA Props breakdown, where we're focusing on the statistical disparities that create betting value. The market is still adjusting to Fred VanVleet's recent offensive decline in Houston, with his points and assists production plummeting his season average. Meanwhile, Ja Morant has been on an absolute tear, exploding for 44 points in his most recent game. We're also tracking Josh Hart's consistently modest offensive production, as his numbers continue to stay well below the betting market's expectations.
In today's newsletter, we're diving into these statistical patterns, examining the reliability of recent trends, and identifying the strongest plays based on WagerLens data tracking. Let's break down some plays for March 15th.
🚨 Bracket Challenge Alert! 🚨
We’re launching a March Madness Bracket Challenge for both the men's and women's tournaments! The winner of each bracket will score $100 and a 6-month WagerLens subscription ($60 value)—completely free. In addition, the 2nd and 3rd place entries will get a 6-month WagerLens subscription ($60 value)—completely free.
Join the action now! Links to both brackets are below. Let’s cash some winners! 💰🏀
We’re back on track with our picks yesterday, winning one, losing one, and having the third voided. We're ready to bounce back strong with today's slate of games! Be sure to join our free March Madness bracket challenges via the links above for your chance to win some awesome prizes!
📊 WagerLens Performance Review
Yesterday (03/15): 1-1 (50%)
NBA: 90-58 (61%)
March ‘25: 26-12 (68%)
All-Time: 95-65 (59.38%)
💎 Today’s Featured Props
🎯 Ja Morant OVER 23.5 Points
Best Price: -125 on DraftKings

Recent Performance
Last Game: 44 points
Last 3-Game Average: 33.7 points
Last 5-Game Average: 32.8 points
Season Average: 22.3 PPG
How Has This Prop Performed?
3 out of last 3 over
5 out of last 5 over
8 out of last 10 over
Key Analysis
Morant has been on a scoring tear, with his recent production far exceeding both his season average and today's prop line. His last five games have averaged 32.8 points, over 9 points higher than the current line. His explosive 44-point performance in his most recent game demonstrates his high ceiling. While his season average of 22.3 PPG is slightly below the line, his recent form suggests he's in a different offensive gear right now.
Risk Factors
Heavier juice across all books reflects strong market confidence
Season average sits marginally below the line
Scoring can fluctuate based on defensive matchup against Miami
🎯 Fred VanVleet Under 18.5 PA (Points + Assists)
Best Price: -125 on ESPN Bet

Recent Performance
Last Game: 11 PA
Last 3-Game Average: 11 PA
Last 5-Game Average: 11.2 PA
Season Average: 19.8 PA/G
How Has This Prop Performed?
3 out of last 3 under
5 out of last 5 under
7 out of last 10 under
Key Analysis
VanVleet's points and assists production has fallen off significantly from his season average. His recent five-game average of 11.2 PA sits well below today's line of 18.5, showing a consistent pattern of underperformance. The downward trend arrow in WagerLens supports this analysis. What's most notable is the large gap between his season average (19.8 PA/G) and recent production, suggesting his nagging ankle injury could still be bothering him.
Risk Factors
Season average is above the current line
Role could expand if backcourt teammates are limited
Potential for regression toward season averages
🎯 Josh Hart Under 22.5 PA (Points + Assists)
Best Price: -115 on BetMGM

Recent Performance
Last Game: 20 PA
Last 3-Game Average: 20.3 PA
Last 5-Game Average: 17.2 PA
Season Average: 20.1 PA/G
How Has This Prop Performed?
3 out of last 3 under
5 out of last 5 under
8 out of last 10 under
Key Analysis
Hart has been consistently performing below this PA line, with his five-game average of 17.2 PA providing a comfortable cushion beneath the 22.5 total. Despite his all-around contributions to the Knicks, his points and assists production has been limited by the team's other offensive options. The downward trend arrow in WagerLens reinforces this under play. His consistent performance trend, combined with reasonable pricing across books, makes this an appealing option.
Risk Factors
Recent games (L1 and L3) trending closer to the line
Increased offensive responsibility if Jalen Brunson with still out
Today's Featured Props Recap
We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:
Best Value Plays
🔥 Ja Morant OVER 23.5 Points (-125 DraftKings)
Most consistent trend: 5/5 in L5
Averaging 32.8 points in L5
Recent explosion (44 points) shows high ceiling
Trending Unders
1. 📉 Fred VanVleet UNDER 18.5 PA (-125 ESPN Bet)
Strong trend: 5/5 unders in L5
Recent average (11.2) far below line
Significant drop from season average
2. 📉 Josh Hart UNDER 22.5 PA (-115 BetMGM)
8/10 games staying UNDER
Best pricing with minimal juice
Season average (20.1) supports the trend
All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.
Ready to Raise Your Betting Game?
Join the sharpest sports bettors in the game at WagerLens.com. Our cutting-edge platform gives you the tools, data, and insights you need to make smarter bets.
With WagerLens, you'll unlock access to:
Advanced analytics & proprietary algorithms
Intuitive tools for market analysis
Expert educational content
A passionate community of winning bettors
Join WagerLens now and start betting smarter!
For daily NBA plays and insights, be sure to follow WagerLens on X as we keep you updated on the action!
As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!
— The WagerLens Team