💎 Today’s Featured Props

🎯 Jordan Poole Over 2.5 Turnovers

Best Price: -120 on ESPN Bet/DraftKings

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 4 turnovers

• Last 3-Game Average: 4 turnovers

• Last 5-Game Average: 3.6 turnovers

• Season Average: 3.4 turnovers

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 3 out of last 3 over

• 5 out of last 5 over

• 9 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Poole's turnover rate has been consistently above the line all season, with his 3.4 average significantly higher than today's prop. His ball-handling responsibilities in Washington's offense naturally lead to higher turnover numbers, and he's shown no signs of improved ball security in recent games. All data points toward continued struggles controlling the ball.

Risk Factors

• Game script could limit his minutes if blowout occurs

• Matchup-specific defensive schemes may impact his turnover rate

• Line has remained at 2.5 despite overwhelming over trend

🎯 Bam Adebayo Over 17.5 Points

Best Price: -105 on ESPN Bet/Pinnacle

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 27 points

• Last 3-Game Average: 22.3 points

• Last 5-Game Average: 21.6 points

• Season Average: 16.7 PPG

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 3 out of last 3 over

• 5 out of last 5 over

• 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Adebayo has been on a scoring tear recently, with his last five games averaging well above his season norm and today's line. His offensive usage has notably increased, and he's showing more aggression in looking for his own shot. His last game performance of 27 points shows his high ceiling, while his recent consistency provides a solid floor.

Risk Factors

• Miami's offense can be inconsistent depending on available personnel

• Potential defensive matchup concerns against rim protectors

🎯 Ausar Thompson Over 2.5 Assists

Best Price: -140 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 7 assists

• Last 3-Game Average: 5 assists

• Last 5-Game Average: 4.8 assists

• Season Average: 2.2 AST/G

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 3 out of last 3 over

• 5 out of last 5 over

• 7 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Thompson has shown remarkable playmaking growth recently, with his assist numbers drastically outpacing both his season average and today's line. His development as a secondary ballhandler in Detroit's offense has unlocked new dimensions to his game, and his court vision continues to improve. Recent sample size strongly suggests his passing abilities are being undervalued by the market.

Risk Factors

• Heavy juice (-140) cuts into potential profit

• Increased defensive attention as scouting reports adjust

🎯 Dante Exum Under 3.5 Rebounds

Best Price: -135 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 3 rebounds

• Last 3-Game Average: 2.3 rebounds

• Last 5-Game Average: 1.6 rebounds

• Season Average: 1.7 REB/G

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 3 out of last 3 under

• 5 out of last 5 under

Key Analysis

Exum's rebounding numbers show remarkable consistency staying under this total. With a season average of just 1.7 rebounds and recent games showing no deviation from this pattern, the data strongly supports the under. His role in Dallas' offense keeps him primarily on the perimeter, limiting rebounding opportunities.

Risk Factors

• Limited market availability (only one book shown)

• Heavy juice at -135 reduces value

• Matchup against teams with poor perimeter rebounding could present outlier opportunity

🎯 Jordan Clarkson Over 2.5 Threes

Best Price: -110 on BetMGM

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 3 made threes

• Last 3-Game Average: 4 made threes

• Last 5-Game Average: 4 made threes

• Season Average: 2.4 3PM/G

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 3 out of last 3 over

• 5 out of last 5 over

• 9 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Clarkson has been on a hot streak from beyond the arc, with his recent averages significantly outpacing both his season average and today's line. His role as a volume shooter off the bench for Utah creates consistent three-point opportunities, and his recent efficiency has been impressive. The statistical trend here is one of the strongest on today's board.

Risk Factors

• Three-point shooting can be highly variable night-to-night

• Price disparity across books suggests uncertainty in market

• Minutes fluctuation in Utah's rotation could impact volume

🎯 John Collins Over 23.5 PR (Points + Rebounds)

Best Price: -115 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 24 PR

• Last 3-Game Average: 25.7 PR

• Last 5-Game Average: 25.6 PR

• Season Average: 26.3 PR/G

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 3 out of last 3 over

• 5 out of last 5 over

• 9 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Collins has been remarkably consistent in producing combined points and rebounds above this total. His season-long average of 26.3 PR provides a solid cushion above the line, and his recent performance shows no signs of regression. His role in Utah's frontcourt ensures steady minutes and usage, creating a high floor for this prop.

Risk Factors

• Utah's rotation can sometimes limit his minutes ceiling

• Back-to-back scheduling could impact energy levels

• Jazz team context can lead to inconsistent offensive opportunities

🎯 Josh Hart Over 14.5 Points

Best Price: +100 on ESPN Bet

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 18 points

• Last 3-Game Average: 21.7 points

• Last 5-Game Average: 19.8 points

• Season Average: 14.7 PPG

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 3 out of last 3 over

• 5 out of last 5 over

• 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Hart has significantly outperformed his scoring prop in recent games, with his last five outings averaging well above today's total. His increased offensive aggression and expanded role in New York's offense has elevated his scoring output above his season average. Getting plus money on a trend this strong presents excellent value.

Risk Factors

• Scoring can be secondary to his rebounding and defense

• New York's rotation and offensive focus can shift

• Role players' scoring can be more volatile game-to-game

Today's Featured Props Recap

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Best Value Plays

1. 🔥 Josh Hart OVER 14.5 Points (+100 ESPN Bet)

   • Most consistent trend: 5/5 in L5

   • Averaging 19.8 points in L5

   • Plus money for established trend

Trending Overs

1. 📈 Ausar Thompson OVER 2.5 Assists (-140 DraftKings)

   • Hot streak: 5/5 in L5

   • Averaging 4.8 assists in L5

   • Strong developmental trend for rookie

2. ⚡ Jordan Clarkson OVER 2.5 Threes (-110 BetMGM)

   • 9/10 games going OVER

   • Averaging 4 threes in L5

   • Consistent volume and efficiency

Trending Unders

1. 📉 Dante Exum UNDER 3.5 Rebounds (-135 DraftKings)

   • 5/5 Unders in L5 games

   • Season average (1.7) well below line

   • Consistent role limits rebounding opportunities

Watch List

1. ⚠️ John Collins OVER 23.5 PR (-115 DraftKings)

   • Strong trend but watch for minutes

   • Season average supports play

   • Monitor Jazz rotation news

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

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