We went 2/3 on daily picks yesterday—just shy of a perfect day. With a bigger slate ahead, we’re dialing in on a few more plays and aiming for the sweep. Let’s cash some tickets!

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💎 Today’s Featured Props

🎯 Andrew Nembhard UNDER 14.5 PR (Points + Rebounds)

Best Price: -125 on Caesars

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 7 PR

• Last 3-Game Average: 10.7 PR

• Last 5-Game Average: 11.6 PR

• Season Average: 13.5 PR

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 2 out of last 3 under

• 4 out of last 5 under

• 8 out of last 10 under

Key Analysis

Andrew Nembhard has consistently fallen short of tonight’s line. He’s cleared it in just 2 of his last 10 games, with all key averages—including his season mark—sitting below it. Over his last seven games, he’s posted just 7.7 PR, and in his most recent matchup against the Heat, he finished with only 12 PR. The trends suggest another under.

Risk Factors

• High ceiling with as many as 32 PR in a single game this season

🎯 Evan Mobley OVER 16.5 Points

Best Price: -120 on DraftKings/ESPN Bet/BetRivers

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 17 points

• Last 3-Game Average: 21 points

• Last 5-Game Average: 18.6 points

• Season Average: 18.7 points

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 2 out of last 3 over

• 4 out of last 5 over

• 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Evan Mobley has consistently outpaced tonight’s line, averaging 18.7 points per game this season. However, his performances against Boston tell a different story—he’s cleared this line just once in three matchups, averaging only 12.7 points. Despite this, recent trends suggest he’s in a good spot to exceed expectations tonight.

Risk Factors

• Averaging just 12.7 points against Celtics this season

• Low floor for points scored

• Agreement across books suggests close results

🎯 Dyson Daniels OVER 19.5 PR (Points + Rebounds)

Best Price: -150 on ESPNBet

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 23 PR

• Last 3-Game Average: 24.3 PR

• Last 5-Game Average: 24.2 PR

• Season Average: 19.6 PR

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 3 out of last 3 over

• 5 out of last 5 over

• 9 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Dyson Daniels has been filling up the stat sheet, averaging 24.4 PR over his last seven games and 20.1 PR at home. A key advantage with Daniels is his versatility—when his scoring dips, his rebounding often picks up the slack. However, one concern is his last matchup against OKC, where he managed just 15 PR. Keep that in mind when considering tonight’s play.

Risk Factors

• Season average in line with current line

• Only 15 PR in last matchup with OKC

🎯 Zach Collins UNDER 3.5 Assists

Best Price: -145 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 1 assists

• Last 3-Game Average: 0.7 assists

• Last 5-Game Average: 1 assists

• Season Average: 1.4 assists

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 2 out of last 3 under

• 4 out of last 5 under

• 9 out of last 10 under

Key Analysis

Collins isn’t known for piling up assists, averaging just 1 per game over his last five and even less over his last seven. At home, he’s putting up only 2 assists per game this season, and his last 10 games have seen him dip below even 1 assist on average. With those trends in mind, staying under 3.5 assists tonight looks like a strong bet.

Risk Factors

• As many as 7 assists in a game this season

🎯 Derrick White OVER 14.5 Points

Best Price: -150 on ESPN Bet

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 18 points

• Last 3-Game Average: 19.7 points

• Last 5-Game Average: 18.8 points

• Season Average: 16.3 points

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 3 out of last 3 over

• 5 out of last 5 over

• 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Derrick White is no stranger to hitting 15 points, averaging 19.7 over his last three games—five points clear of tonight’s line. He’s also put up 19.5 points per game against the Cavs this season. With Jaylen Brown and Jrue Holiday starting the day as questionable, White could be in line for an even bigger role, making this a strong spot for him to shine.

Risk Factors

• Low floor for points scored

• Heavy juice

🎯 Michael Porter Jr. OVER 6.5 Rebounds

Best Price: +100 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 10 rebounds

• Last 3-Game Average: 9.7 rebounds

• Last 5-Game Average: 9.4 rebounds

• Season Average: 6.8 rebounds

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 3 out of last 3 over

• 5 out of last 5 over

• 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Michael Porter Jr.’s season average of 6.8 rebounds aligns with tonight’s line, but his recent performances suggest he could surpass it. He grabbed 10 boards in his last matchup with the Bucks, showing his potential on the glass. However, one risk to consider is his low floor—he’s had a game this season where he recorded zero rebounds.

Risk Factors

• Low rebound floor

• Positive odds suggest long shot

Today's Featured Props Recap

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Best Value Plays

1. 🔥 Michael Porter Jr. OVER 6.5 Rebounds (+100 DraftKings)

   • Most consistent trend: 8/10 in L10

   • 10 rebounds in last game

   • 10 rebounds in last Bucks matchup, averaging 9.4 in L7

Trending Overs:

1. 📈 Dyson Daniels OVER 19.5 PR (Points + Rebounds) (-150 ESPN Bet)

• Hot streak: 9/10 in L10

• Averaging 24.2 in L5

• When Daniels’ scoring dips, his rebounding often picks up the slack

2. ⚡ Derrick White OVER 14.5 Points (-150 ESPN Bet)

• 8/L10 games going OVER

• 19.5 points per game against the Cavs this season

• Jaylen Brown and Jrue Holiday starting the day as questionable

Trending Unders:

1. 📉 Zach Collins UNDER 3.5 Assists (-145 DraftKings)

• 9/L10 games staying UNDER

• Averaging less than 1 assist over last 7

• Only averaging 1.4 assists per game this season

Watch List:

1. ⚠️ Evan Mobley OVER 16.5 Points (-120 DraftKings/ESPN Bet/BetRivers)

• Strong trend but averaging only 12.7 against Cavs

• Averaging 21 points over L3

• [Agreement across books suggests close results

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

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