The Day After the Sweep: Keeping the Momentum

Back on the Bump: Unders With Value

AuthorAuthor

Sage Davis & Brian McAbee
August 04, 2025

We’re coming off a clean 3-0 sweep yesterday, and the momentum is rolling. Our pitcher props have been dialed in lately, consistently spotting edges in both strikeout and hits allowed markets. Today’s slate offers more opportunities to stay hot, with sharp trends and favorable matchups lining up across the board. Let’s keep pressing the edge and stack another winning day.

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Table of Contents

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

Yesterday (08/03): 3-0 (100%; +2.38 Units)

MLB: 166-145 (53%; +18.71 Units)

August ‘25: 7-5 (58%; +0.77 Units)

All-Time: 291-246 (54%; +53.9 Units)

🎯 Brandon Pfaadt UNDER 6.5 Hits Allowed

Best Price: -115 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 11 Hits Allowed

  • Last 3-Game Average: 6.67 H/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 6 H/G

  • Season Average: 5.773 H/G

  • Confidence Score: 94

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 under

  • 4 out of last 5 under

  • 8 out of last 10 under

Key Analysis

Brandon Pfaadt UNDER 6.5 Hits Allowed looks like a strong value play today at -115 on DraftKings. While his most recent outing skewed the short-term averages with 11 hits allowed, his 3-game average still sits at 6.67 and his season-long mark is a more reasonable 5.773. Even more telling is the trend — Pfaadt has stayed under this line in 3 straight starts, 4 of his last 5, and 8 of his last 10. The Padres have averaged just 6.7 hits per game against opposing starters over their last 10, right in line with this number, but when adjusting for the one outlier game, Pfaadt’s control and command trends suggest he's more than capable of limiting baserunners today. With a 94 confidence score backing it, this under has both historical support and contextual edge.

Risk Factors

  • Padres volatile offense

🎯 Eric Lauer UNDER 5.5 Hits Allowed

Best Price: +115 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 5 Hits Allowed

  • Last 3-Game Average: 4 H/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 3.8 H/G

  • Season Average: 3.118 H/G

  • Confidence Score: 94

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 under

  • 5 out of last 5 under

  • 9 out of last 10 under

Key Analysis

Eric Lauer UNDER 5.5 Hits Allowed at +115 on DraftKings offers excellent value with a strong statistical foundation. Lauer has been sharp lately, allowing just 5 hits in his last outing and averaging only 4 hits per game over his last 3 starts. His 5-game average dips even lower to 3.8, and his season-long average sits at just 3.118 hits allowed per outing. This prop has been cashing consistently — Lauer has stayed under in 3 straight starts, all of his last 5, and 9 of his last 10. While the Rockies average 5.3 hits per game against starters over their last 10 and nearly 8 hits per game on the season, Lauer’s recent command and ability to limit damage suggest he's more than capable of outperforming that baseline. Backed by a 94 confidence score and plus-money odds, this under is one of the sharper plays on the board.

Risk Factors

  • Rockies recent offensive surge

🎯 Blaze Alexander UNDER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Best Price: -125 on BetMGM

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 5 H/R/RBIs

  • Last 3-Game Average: 2.67 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Last 5-Game Average: 1.6 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Season Average: 1.12 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Confidence Score: 94

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 1 out of last 3 under

  • 3 out of last 5 under

  • 8 out of last 10 under

Key Analysis

Blaze Alexander UNDER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs at -125 on BetMGM stands out as a sharp play, especially when looking past his recent outlier performance. While he racked up 5 H/R/RBIs in his last game, his 5-game average is just 1.6, and his season average is a modest 1.12. This line has been beat in 8 of his last 10 games, including 3 of the last 5, showing consistent value on the under. Despite a 3-game stretch averaging 2.67 H/R/RBIs, Alexander’s .161 batting average against left-handed pitching significantly lowers his ceiling today. He faces JP Sears, who has been hittable with a 4.95 ERA and allows 5 hits per game, but not overly vulnerable. With limited upside and a strong 94 confidence score, this under is backed by both player trends and matchup data.

Risk Factors

  • Sears has been hittable

🎯 Sandy Alcantara UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown

Best Price: -110 on BetRivers

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 4 SO

  • Last 3-Game Average: 3.33 SO/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 3.6 SO/G

  • Season Average: 3.857 SO/G

  • Confidence Score: 92

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 under

  • 5 out of last 5 under

  • 9 out of last 10 under

Key Analysis

Sandy Alcantara UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown at -110 on BetRivers is a well-supported play with a clear trend backing it. Alcantara has stayed under this line in 3 straight outings, 5 of his last 5, and 9 of his last 10 — a dominant pattern of low strikeout totals. His season average of 3.857 K/G sits comfortably below the 4.5 mark, and his recent 3-game (3.33) and 5-game (3.6) averages show no signs of a spike. He faces an Astros lineup that’s been among the toughest to strike out, averaging just 5.67 Ks per game over their last 3. With a 92 confidence score, this under is anchored by both matchup strength and sustained pitcher trends.

Risk Factors

  • As many as 8 SO in a game this season

🎯 Jose Ramirez OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Best Price: -120 on Caesars

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 5 H/R/RBIs

  • Last 3-Game Average: 4.33 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Last 5-Game Average: 4.2 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Season Average: 2.361 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Confidence Score: 92

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 over

  • 5 out of last 5 over

  • 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Jose Ramirez OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs at -120 on Caesars is a high-upside play with elite trend and matchup backing. Ramirez has been on a tear, clearing this line in 3 straight games and 5 of his last 5, with an impressive 4.33 H/R/RBIs average over his last 3. His season-long average of 2.361 also sits well above today’s line. He’s feasting against left-handed pitching, posting a .350 batting average and .542 slugging percentage, and draws a favorable matchup against Sean Manaea, who just allowed 3 hits and 1 run in his most recent 5-inning outing. With the Mets’ bullpen struggling to a 5.21 ERA over their last 7, Ramirez is in a prime spot to do damage again. Backed by a 92 confidence score, this over carries both momentum and matchup firepower.

Risk Factors

  • May need help from others in lineup to cash

MLB Home Run Hitters Edge

MLB hitters with higher probability to hit a home run based on season stats, matchups with starting pitchers and other key stats (odds from DraftKings)

  • [NAME] Odds

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Best Value Plays

  1. 🔥 Eric Lauer UNDER 5.5 Hits Allowed (+115 DraftKings)

    • Most consistent trend: 9/10 in L10

    • Allowing just 3.8 H/G over last 5 starts

    • While the Rockies average 5.3 hits per game against starters over their last 10 and nearly 8 hits per game on the season, Lauer’s recent command and ability to limit damage suggest he's more than capable of outperforming that baseline

Trending Overs

1. 📈 Jose Ramirez OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-120 Caesars)

  • Hot streak: 5/5 in L5

  • Averaging 4.2 H/R/RBIs per game in L5

  • He’s feasting against left-handed pitching, posting a .350 batting average and .542 slugging percentage, and draws a favorable matchup against Sean Manaea, who just allowed 3 hits and 1 run in his most recent 5-inning outing

Trending Unders

1. 📉 Brandon Pfaadt UNDER 6.5 Hits Allowed (-115 DraftKings)

  • 8/L10 games staying UNDER

  • Allowing just 6 H/G over last 5 even with an 11 hit outing

  • The Padres have averaged just 6.7 hits per game against opposing starters over their last 10, right in line with this number, but when adjusting for the one outlier game, Pfaadt’s control and command trends suggest he's more than capable of limiting baserunners today

2. ⬇️ Blaze Alexander UNDER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-125 Bet MGM)

  • 8/L10 games staying UNDER

  • Averaging just 1.12 H/R/RBIs per game this season

  • Despite a 3-game stretch averaging 2.67 H/R/RBIs, Alexander’s .161 batting average against left-handed pitching significantly lowers his ceiling today

3. 👎 Sandy Alcantara UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-110 BetRivers)

  • 9/L10 games staying UNDER

  • Averaging just 3.6 SO/G over last 5

  • He faces an Astros lineup that’s been among the toughest to strike out, averaging just 5.67 Ks per game over their last 3

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!

— The WagerLens Team