Today's MLB Slate + Early Season Angles You Can’t Miss

Sharp Analysis. Simple Execution. Daily Value.

Author

Sage Davis
April 04, 2025

Table of Contents

Welcome to the first full MLB edition of the WagerLens Newsletter! MLB props are officially live on WagerLens.com—don’t forget to use your 14-day free trial to dive in! We went 1-2 on NBA plays yesterday but are still up overall to start April. Big MLB slate on deck today, plus the Final Four tips off tomorrow. Let’s ride the momentum!

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

Yesterday (04/03): 1-2 (33%)

NBA: 105-81 (56%)

April ‘25: 5-4 (56%)

All-Time: 115-96 (55%)

🎯 Brooks Baldwin OVER 0.5 Hits

Best Price: -148 on Caesars

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 1 hit

  • Last 3-Game Average: 1 H/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 1 H/G

  • Season Average: 1 H/G

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 over

  • 5 out of last 5 over

Key Analysis

Brooks Baldwin is quietly heating up. He’s recorded a hit in all 5 games he’s played this season, showing solid consistency at the plate. Today, he’ll face Jack Flaherty, who’s coming off a decent season debut for the Tigers (3 hits, 2 earned runs allowed). With Baldwin’s streak intact and a hittable arm on the mound, backing him to stay hot looks like a strong value play.

Risk Factors

  • Flaherty historically good pitcher

🎯 Nolan Arenado OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Best Price: -135 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 6 H/R/RBI

  • Last 3-Game Average: 3.33 H/R/RBI per Game

  • Last 5-Game Average: 3.2 H/R/RBI per Game

  • Season Average: 3.2 H/R/RBI per Game

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 over

  • 5 out of last 5 over

Key Analysis

Nolan Arenado is in a prime spot to produce again today. He’s had 6 hits with 2 home runs in his career against Walker Buehler, showing he sees the ball well against the Red Sox righty. He’s also coming off a big game, racking up 2 hits, 2 runs, and 2 RBIs—clearing this prop with ease. Arenado has hit the Over on 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs in every game this season, and with the way he’s swinging it and the fact Buehler gave up 4 ER on 7 Hits in his first start, the over looks strong here.

Risk Factors

  • Buehler has the capability to shut down STL

🎯 Kyle Schwarber OVER 0.5 Hits

Best Price: -135 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 1 hit

  • Last 3-Game Average: 1 H/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 1.2 H/G

  • Season Average: 1.33 H/G

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 over

  • 5 out of last 5 over

Key Analysis

Kyle Schwarber is locked in to start the season. He’s recorded at least one hit in every game he’s started, consistently setting the tone at the top of the Phillies’ lineup. While Yoshinobu Yamamoto showed strikeout upside with 10 K’s in his last outing, he also allowed 5 hits—showing he's still hittable. With Schwarber seeing the ball well and likely to get multiple looks early, he's in a good spot to stay hot today.

Risk Factors

  • Yamamoto 10 K last start

🎯 Shohei Ohtani OVER 0.5 Runs Scored

Best Price: -125 on ESPN Bet

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 1 run

  • Last 3-Game Average: 1 R/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 1.2 R/G

  • Season Average: 1.375 R/G

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 over

  • 5 out of last 5 over

Key Analysis

Shohei Ohtani continues to be a table-setter in the heart of the Dodgers’ lineup. He’s scored at least 1 run in every game this season. With Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman hitting behind him, Ohtani consistently finds himself on base with elite bats ready to drive him in. He's getting on at a high clip and swiping the occasional bag, giving him multiple paths to cross the plate. With how this lineup is rolling, Ohtani Over 0.5 Runs Scored is a strong value play.

Risk Factors

  • .143 AVG against Luzardo

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Best Value Plays

  1. 🔥 Shohei Ohtani OVER 0.5 Runs Scored (-125 ESPN Bet)

    • Most consistent trend: 8/8 in L8

    • Averaging 1.375 Runs Per Game so far this season

    • With Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman hitting behind him, Ohtani consistently finds himself on base with elite bats ready to drive him in

Trending Overs

1. 📈 Brooks Baldwin OVER 0.5 Hits (-148 Caesars)

  • Hot streak: 5/5 in L5

  • Averaging 1 H/G in L5

  • 13 of his 14 total ABs this season have come against RHP with an average of .385

2. ⚡ Nolan Arenado OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-135 DraftKings)

  • 6/L6 games going OVER

  • Averaging 3.2 H/R/RBI per Game over last 5

  • Buehler gave up 4 ER on 7 Hits in his first start

3. ⬆ Kyle Schwarber OVER 0.5 Hits (-135 DraftKings)

  • 6/L6 games going OVER

  • 1.33 Hits per game this season with a .308 average

  • While Yoshinobu Yamamoto showed strikeout upside with 10 K’s in his last outing, he also allowed 5 hits—showing he's still hittable

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

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